Giants vs Padres Picks and Predictions: Pitchers Get Burnt in SoCal Showdown

The San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres will wrap up their four-game series Sunday afternoon. 

It's been a pretty rough stretch of baseball for the Giants, having won just two of their last eight games while drifting out of the playoff picture.

However, they grabbed a win last night and put themselves in a position to get a series split today. Over that same stretch, the Padres have been modestly better. They've won four of their last 10 and arrive today with a 49-37 record. 

Who will take the final game of this series? Find out in our MLB betting picks and predictions for July 10.

Giants vs Padres odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Padres opened up as favorites today at -130 across the board. Since then, the Giants took some money and the Padres' juice has been cut in half, with San Francisco returning around +105.

The total opened up at 7.5 and has remained there.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Giants vs Padres predictions

• Prediction: Giants ML (+108)
• Prediction: Over 7.5 (-125)
• Best bet: Over 7.5 (-125)

Picks made on 7/10/2022 at 11:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Giants vs Padres game info

• Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
• Date: Sunday, July 10, 2022
• First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
• TV: NBCS-BAY, Bally Sports

Giants vs Padres betting preview

Starting pitchers

Alex Wood (5-7, 4.83 ERA): Wood's season has been bumpy, posting back-to-back months of a 5+ ERA and is coming off one of his better season starts. That start came against the Arizona Diamondbacks, and he went just over five innings surrendering just one run. Those performances have been few and far between, though. That was only the second start in his last ten proceeding in which he gave up one run or less. When Wood can make batters chase, he can have some success, but he typically struggles not to create enough swings and misses. He's generally putting too many pitches in the streak zone in hittable spots. When batters make contact, they are hitting him somewhat hard as his hard-hit rate ranks slightly below league average. That said, Wood should see some positive regression in the second half of the season with an xERA of 3.84.

MacKenzie Gore (4-3, 3.18 ERA): Gore has been quite hot and cold this season. Just take a look at the contrast between the last two months for the best example of that. In May, Gore was simply sensational, posting a 1.69 ERA going over 26 innings and surrendering five earned runs. You expected some regression after that, but it came pretty largely. Gore followed up May with a dreadful 7.27 ERA in June. Extreme splits like this make Gore challenging to predict, but they also offer value if you can solve the puzzle. His hard-hit rate, exit velocity, and barrel rate all speak to a pitcher who is below average. He excels when he can create swings and misses. When he doesn't, issues occur.

Weather

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Key injuries

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Betting trend to know

The Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in San Diego. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Padres

Giants vs Padres picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

This is a fun handicap because it pits one generally terrible pitcher that you'd expect to be better against a pitcher who has been impossible to predict. I'm rolling with the Giants today, though, as I think they have an edge on the mound and situationally.

I'm not sure what the proxy of San Francisco's season is. My MLB Power Rankings have them about mid-pack, which feels right. I know they certainly aren't the "losing eight of their last ten" type of team they've been over the last few weeks.

Yesterday was a pretty big win for them. They had fallen into a slump of poor play, and getting that proverbial monkey off their backs could do wonders for them.

I have this belief with some hesitance, but they should be in a position to reel off some wins before the All-Star break hits. That, as much as anything, is a part of this handicap. That success should snowball a bit. 

Wood has been unlucky throughout this season. The peripherals behind his play don't suggest someone who should have an ERA flirting with five. Sure, his hard-hit rate isn't exactly where you'd want it to be, but it isn't in line with his ERA.

With that said, I don't think he has any huge edge over Giants hitters here. He's seen them twice this season; one showing was good while the other wasn't. I don't think the Giants have some significant edge, either. It's pretty close to a wash. Wood will give up a few, but regression in his favor; I like his position today.

On the other end of the spectrum is Gore, who has been a fade central. Sure he was solid against the Diamondbacks, but I'm not sure that does much to move me. His June was more a product of him returning to reality than anything. It shouldn't have been as bad as it was, but he's certainly not the sub-one two-run ERA pitcher he showed early in the season.

Gore was outstanding the first time against the Giants. He posted six innings while surrendering just one earned run, but I don't think lightning strikes twice. He excels when batters chase and swing and miss. He's getting one of the more patient lineups in baseball today while at the plate. In addition, the Giants' numbers go up when they see a pitcher for the second time in a season. 

I'm not strong on this side today, but the Giants have some situational aspects that give them appeal. My projections have this nearly exactly a 50/50 proposition, so I'll take the side getting plus money.

Prediction: Giants moneyline (+108 at DraftKings)

Over/Under analysis

A total below 8 is just too low for these pitchers. Despite my belief that Wood will start to improve, it's not strong enough for me to think this goes Under the total.

There is a high degree that one of these pitchers gets roughed up. That alone should be enough to get this one Over. 

I've spoken a fair amount about both of these pitchers' struggles this season. I understand the total being placed where it is because of the nature of this season, but it doesn't account enough for these guys at the plate.

Both teams have seen these pitchers before this season, and both have an angle that will give them confidence at the plate. That sets up a recipe for the Over. The trends seem to agree with this as while, as there are a few notable ones at play here:

The Over is 5-0 in the Giants' last five after allowing two runs or less in their previous game and 6-2 in the last eight meetings in San Diego.

My projections have this going Over nearly 60% of the time. That suggests an implied probability of just over -140. The price is -125 at Caesars, which gives a pretty nice edge.

I think it's a little too much belief in these pitchers from oddsmkaers. One is due for some positive regression but hasn't really had it yet, and one has been pretty brutal for a month or so now. 

It seems likely that we get a blow-up outing between these two pitchers. That should be enough. 

Prediction: Over 7.5 (-125 at Caesars)

Best bet

I'm going to double down here with the Over as my best bet.

Two of these games in the series were low-scoring, but it could have quickly gone the other way even a night ago. Instead, the Giants went 1-for-9 with runners in scoring position. It just highlights how these teams have failed to capitalize throughout this series.

That trend shifts today; these two pitchers have been too shaky for it not to. Whether it's Gore or Wood facing early baserunner pressure, one likely folds, assisting in sending the total over. 

Pick: Over 7.5 (-125 at Caesars)

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