Giants vs Phillies Sunday Night Baseball Prop Bets: Bohm Keeps Crushing Baseballs

Prop bet #1: No whiffs vs. Webb

San Francisco Giants ace Logan Webb has been a steady, reliable force across the last three seasons. That being said, his effectiveness isn’t due to his ability to make batters swing and miss. Webb’s K-rate is down to 17.1% in 2024, the lowest mark of his career. 

It was especially evident that he didn’t have his best swing-and-miss stuff in his last start against the Boston Red Sox as he was tagged for four runs on nine hits and three walks while lasting just 3 2/3 innings and generating a measly four swinging strikes across 91 pitches. 

Webb’s swinging strike rate is now down to 7.3% — again, the lowest number of his career. He peaked at 12.4% in 2021 and has steadily been headed downward since, settling at 9% a year ago. Nothing about his profile indicates that he’s going to be racking up a bountiful amount of punchouts anytime soon.

The books have set his strikeout prop at 5.5 tonight. He’s started seven games this season and has gone Under that number in all seven while averaging 4.3 punchouts. 

This is a difficult matchup because the Philadelphia Phillies annihilate right-handed pitching. They’ve posted a 143 wRC+ and a .375 wOBA against righties across the last 15 days, both of which rank second in the MLB. They’ve avoided strikeouts (16.4% K-rate, third) and have remained patient (11.3% walk rate, third) in that same time. 

I’ll bet on Webb going eight straight without reaching six or more punchouts.

Logan Webb prop: Under 5.5 strikeouts (-138 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #2: Velo matters

Taijuan Walker made his 2024 debut last Sunday against the San Diego Padres, getting tagged for six earned runs on eight hits and two walks across 6 1/3 innings. He’ll make another Sunday start here against an NL West team, but I’ll need to see proof before believing Walker is ready to be more effective. 

The veteran hurler was simply fine last season with a 4.38 ERA, 4.39 xERA, and 4.53 FIP across 31 starts. He didn’t miss bats (18.8% K-rate, 8.4% swinging strike rate) and issued a few too many free passes (9.7% walk rate), so it is a tad surprising he wasn’t knocked around more. 

It looks like it may take some time for his velocity to ramp up, which is one main reason why I’m riding the fade train tonight. After averaging 94.6 mph on his fastball in 2021, he dropped 0.8 mph in 2022 and then another 0.7 mph in 2023. He was down another 1.1 mph in his first start of 2024, averaging just 92 mph. 

To counteract this, Walker has started deploying his sinker with more frequency — it was his second most-used pitch a year ago (23.4%) and was his most-used pitch last week (32.2%). The thing is, he’s been losing velo on his sinker as well. After averaging 93.7 mph on the pitch in 2021, that number was down to 92.6 mph a year ago and 91.7 mph last Sunday. 

Another factor to consider is that the wind will be blowing out to left field at 8.1 mph at the time of first pitch at Citizens Bank Park. The Giants should have every opportunity to knock in a few runs against Walker.

Taijuan Walker prop: Over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-115 at Caesars)

Prop bet #3: Ride the hot hand

Phillies slugger Alec Bohm has been on fire, riding a 17-game hitting streak entering Sunday. He’s raised his OPS from .705 to 1.014 in that span while posting nine multi-hit games. 

The 27-year-old has been worth 2.1 WAR, which would already be a new career best over a FULL SEASON. He’s found his groove at the dish, sporting career-high numbers in batting average (.364), wOBA (.439), wRC+ (186), and ISO (.215), to name a few. 

Just how good has he been? His Baseball Savant page is a monument to productive baseball. Bohm ranks in the 100th percentile in batting run value (21), the 97th percentile in xBA (.321), the 88th in xSLG (.511), and the 96th in whiff rate (12.9%). 

Bohm was already patient at the plate last year and avoided strikeouts with a 15.4% strikeout rate. The issue is he wasn’t walking much (6.9% walk rate) or making much loud contact. That’s all changed so far in 2024, where he’s combined his patient approach with damage-inducing hacks once he gets something to hit. 

He was pulled from Saturday’s game with right hip flexor tightness, but his exit was precautionary in a blowout win and manager Rob Thomson said he expects his red-hot slugger back in the lineup Sunday. 

This looks like a difficult matchup at first glance, but Webb has notable home-road splits in his career with a 4.14 ERA and 1.24 WHIP across 341 1/3 innings in away games. He’s made just two starts against the Phillies, allowing seven earned runs across 12 innings (5.25 ERA) without factoring into a decision. 

Give me Bohm to stay hot.

Alec Bohm prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+135 at BetRivers)