This interleague series concludes on Sunday afternoon with the Los Angeles Dodgers hosting the Cleveland Guardians at Dodger Stadium and my Guardians vs. Dodgers predictions are eying this 8.5-run total with two solid starters taking the mound.
I break down that pitching matchup and more in my MLB picks below.
Guardians vs Dodgers prediction
My best bet
Under 8.5 (-104 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Los Angeles Dodgers hand the ball to right-hander Jack Flaherty, who should be a good candidate to back. Through 24 starts this season, he's 11-6 with a commanding 3.01 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are equally impressive as the right-hander ranks in the 73rd percentile or higher in xERA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate, and hard-hit rate. That success is likely to continue against the Cleveland Guardians, a team he boasts a 1.50 ERA against over the past five meetings.
Furthermore, Cleveland ranks in the bottom half of the league in hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, and OPS. The good news for the Guardians is they possess one of the best pitching staffs in baseball, starting with right-hander Tanner Bibee.
Bibee is 11-6 through 27 starts this season with a 3.56 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. His analytics are also strong as the right-hander ranks in the top half of the league in xERA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.
Following Bibee is a bullpen that ranks in the Top 3 in ERA, FIP, and xFIP. Not that Los Angeles’ relief staff is far behind, considering it ranks fifth in ERA. Take the Under.
Shohei Ohtani pick: Slo day at the office
My best bet
Shohei Ohtani Under 1.5 hits (-225 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Shohei Ohtani can still have a solid game and stay below this total, which correlates well with the Under. Yes, Ohtani is one of the best hitters in the world, but two hits may be tough to come by in this matchup.
First, he's 0-3 in his career against Bibee with two strikeouts. Second, Bibee is followed by one of the best bullpens in baseball that's also capable of handling Ohtani. He's recorded one or fewer hits in five of his past seven games.
Guardians vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 8.5
Shohei Ohtani Under 1.5 hits
Daniel Schneemann Under 0.5 hits
Another hitter to fade on Sunday that correlates well with our Under is Cleveland’s Daniel Schneemann. He's hitless through five career plate appearances against Flaherty with two strikeouts.
His underlying metrics over that span are equally poor as Schneemann possesses a .028 xBA over that stretch. He also enters this contest in rough form, having failed to record a hit in three of his past four games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Guardians vs Dodgers odds
Guardians vs Dodgers live odds
Guardians vs Dodgers opening odds
- Moneyline: Cleveland +140 | Los Angeles -166
- Run line: Cleveland +1.5 (-150) | Los Angeles -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Guardians vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Dodgers opened as a -166 favorite and remain at that price at the time of writing
- I project this line to widen considering the Dodgers outrank the Guardians in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, and home runs.
- The juice is already moving toward the Under, which makes sense due to all the aforementioned variables.
Guardians vs Dodgers trend
There have been eight or fewer total runs scored in seven of Tanner Bibee’s last 10 starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Dodgers.
Guardians vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, City, State/Province |
| Date: | Sunday, 9-8-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Great Lakes, SportsNet LA |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Tanner Bibee (11-6, 3.56 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Jack Flaherty (11-6, 3.01 ERA) |
Guardians vs Dodgers latest injuries
Guardians vs Dodgers weather
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