The Cleveland Guardians will try to get back over .500 when they head to Guaranteed Rate Field to take on the struggling Chicago White Sox on Thursday night. MLB odds have the game as a virtual toss-up, with the consensus total holding at 8.5.
The Guardians scored eight runs in Wednesday's victory over the Royals despite dealing Amed Rosario to the Dodgers for Noah Syndergaard. Can Cleveland keep it going against a Chicago team that's lost five straight and eight of 11 since the All-Star break?
Here are my MLB picks and predictions for Guardians vs. White Sox on Thursday, July 27.
Guardians vs White Sox odds
Guardians vs White Sox predictions
The Cleveland Guardians' offense may have gotten a bit weaker when they swapped shortstop Amed Rosario for starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard on Wednesday afternoon. Their fans can probably expect plenty of starts for utility man Tyler Freeman in his stead down the stretch, and he's still an unproven commodity at age 24.
However, the Guardians haven't been winning by bombarding their opponents offensively this year, as they rank 23rd in runs per game (4.2). Instead, their solid starting pitching has kept them in just about every game. Rookie hurler Tanner Bibee is one of those arms coming up big, and he's a primary factor in my best bet for this tilt, which is the Cleveland moneyline.
Bibee could be a dark horse candidate in the AL Rookie of the Year odds as the season winds down, as he owns a sparkling 1.14 ERA through four starts in July. He's fanned 27 batters over his last 23 2/3 frames, and has given up eight walks. Bibee would probably like to get that walk rate down, and he's eligible to do so against a Chicago White Sox side that's drawn the fewest walks of any MLB team in 2023.
And with the White Sox wiping out at the 12th-highest rate in the majors, Bibee can keep the upward trend going with his strikeouts, too.
Dylan Cease counters for the ChiSox, and this will be his third start vs. the Guardians this year. Cleveland scratched out five runs over 12 1/3 combined frames vs. Cease and fanned only six times, three in each game. Only the Rays have managed to strikeout as few times in a Cease start as the Guardians have this year. Their discipline at the plate negates Cease's chief weapon, which spells trouble for him tonight.
Rosario may be departed, but Jose Ramirez is still very much in the fold for Cleveland. He's been tearing the cover off the ball lately, batting 14-for-38 (.368) with seven RBIs in his past nine games.
Ramirez is a modest 5-for-21 (.238) all-time vs. Cease, but Steven Kwan (5-for-16) and Josh Bell (4-for-10) are capable of putting the Chicago starter through his paces. The former is batting .310 in July, while the latter is riding a seven-game hitting streak.
As for the bullpens, Cleveland rides a clear-cut advantage from a season-long perspective, ranking second in ERA (3.54) while the White Sox are 25th (4.67). Recent results don't paint as rosy a picture, as the Guardians are 28th in reliever ERA over the last two weeks (6.96) while Chicago is 14th (4.19). However, when you compare the xFIPs over that span (4.19 for Cleveland, 4.83 for the Pale Hose), that possible advantage for the White Sox dissipates.
My best bet: Guardians moneyline (-103 at WynnBET)
Guardians vs White Sox same-game parlay
Guardians moneyline
Bibee 7+ Ks
Ramirez 1+ Hits
My three-leg same-game parlay for this Thursday tilt begins with my best bet, which is the Guardians moneyline.
Bibee is a big reason why I feel so strongly about Cleveland, so I'm backing him to rack up the strikeouts in this spot.
He's averaging only 5.67 Ks per appearance this season (15 starts), but that figure jumps to 6.67 over his last six efforts. Couple that with him going against a sub-par South Siders order that's seeing him for the first time ever, and I feel good about Bibee getting to seven Ks.
It's also worth noting that despite his lack of major league experience, Bibee has had a long leash from manager Terry Francona (99.5 pitches per start last six outings).
Finally, I'll ride Ramirez's hot hand (discussed above) and add him to get into the hit column tonight.
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Guardians vs White Sox moneyline and Over/Under analysis
Moneyline odds for this matchup opened with the White Sox as a -109 consensus favorite, with the Guardians at +101. However, money has come in on Cleveland, and they're now listed at about -110 just about everywhere as of 3 p.m. ET, though some more preferrable numbers can be found by shopping around.
I discussed above the many reasons why I think the Guardians are a great bet on the moneyline tonight.
The total opened at 8.5 and has dipped to 8 at some sites, while others have held the line at 8.5 and raised the vig to about -120 on the Under.
The catalyst behind this line movement is probably the wind blowing in at about eight miles per hour from left-center field. Another accelerant could be the fact that both Cleveland and Chicago have mustered only 4.2 runs per game, tied for 23rd in the majors.
I don't expect Bibee to give up much, nor do I anticipate Cease getting ambushed. There are no apparent relief candidates to sit out this game based on recent usage, so even though these units have been less than stellar of late, I can foresee the elite arms on each side holding their own in a fairly close contest.
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Trend to know
The White Sox have gone Under in 21 of their last 32 games at home (+9.70 Units / 27% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. White Sox
Guardians vs White Sox game info
| Location: | Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Thursday, July 27, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSGL, NBCSCH |
Starting pitchers
Tanner Bibee (6-2, 3.04 ERA): Bibee offers a four-pitch mix of fastballs, sliders, changeups, and curveballs, and relies on his fastball only 48.8% of the time. His K-rate could be higher (61st percentile), but it's hard to knock his xSLG, which ranks in the 85th percentile.
Dylan Cease (4-3, 4.04 ERA): Cease leans mainly on his fastball (41.3%) and slider (39.7%), while mixing in a curveball (15.9%) and an occasional changeup (3.2%). Despite high marks in K-rate (79th percentile) and fastball spin (95th percentile), batters are squaring up on Cease left, right, and center this year, as he's in the 15th percentile in HardHit%.
