Guardians vs White Sox Predictions, Picks, Odds: Lynn Gets Lit Up Again

The Cleveland Guardians and Chicago White Sox start a 3-game series at Guaranteed Rate Field on Tuesday evening. 

The Guardians enter the series on a two-game win streak, and three games back of the Minnesota Twins for first place in the American League Central.

The White Sox limp in with just 14 victories in 42 tries, nine games behind the Twins with a minus-71 run differential, second-worst in the majors.

Can the Guardians stay hot and take the series opener, or will the White Sox manage to get into the win column at home? We’ll discuss in our MLB picks and predictions for Guardians vs. White Sox on Tuesday, May 16.

Guardians vs White Sox odds

Guardians vs White Sox predictions

The Guardians have actually fared better on the road than at home, going 10-9 in away games, and 9-12 at Progressive Field.

The good news is that the Guardians have the second-best run differential in the AL Central, but the bad news is that Cleveland has a minus-23 mark. Yeah, it’s been a difficult season for the Central so far, with all but one team under .500.

The White Sox have dropped four of the past five games, and a lack of offense has really been the issue. Chicago has played just 11 runs across the past five outings, or 2.2 runs per game. That’s simply not going to do.

Inside the Central Division, Chicago has also dropped four of the past five games, while Cleveland is a more respectable 4-3 across the past seven contests against Central foes.

The thing which tips the scales in favor of the Guardians is that Opening Day starter RHP Shane Bieber is on the bump. He makes his ninth start of the season, and he has a respectable 2.61 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. The nighttime is where it’s at for Bieber, too, as he is 3-0 with a 2.03 ERA and .212 opponent batting average across 40 innings in six night outings.

On the flip side, the White Sox counter with veteran RHP Lance Lynn, who’s flirting with being designated for assignment. He’s 1-5 with a 7.51 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in eight starts, serving up 11 homers in just 44 1/3 innings. In addition, he has a 9.56 ERA in 16 innings in three home assignments.

The pitching disparity means you need to back the road side, as one team has its ace, and one team has a guy who might not last into the summer.

My best bet: Guardians moneyline (-125 at BetMGM)

Guardians vs White Sox moneyline analysis

The Guardians hit the road, where they have had the most success. Cleveland has won just once in the past five on the road, but it is also 22-8 in the past 30 road games against a right-handed starting pitcher.

Cleveland is also 31-15 in the past 46 games inside the American League Central Division, while going 31-15 in the past 46 against a right-handed starting pitcher, too.

For Chicago, the White Sox have managed a dismal 9-20 record in the past 29 games at home, and they’re just 7-16 in the past 23 games following an off day. They’re also 1-4 in the past five against right-handed starting pitchers, while going 1-4 in the past five inside the AL Central Division.

Back the road side, and based upon the splits for Bieber, which are good, and the splits for Lynn, which are awful, it’s rather surprising Cleveland is so affordable on the money line.

Guardians vs White Sox Over/Under analysis

For Cleveland, it’s been all about the Under recently, going 3-1-1 in the past five games overall, and 19-3-2 in the past 24 outings. The Under is a perfect 4-0 in the past four games on the road, too.

Within the division, the Under is even more impressive for the Guardians, going 8-0-1 in the previous nine games against AL Central opponents. The Under is 13-3-2 in the past 18 games after an off days, too.

Again, the White Sox have had a power outage lately. Chicago has plated 20 runs in the past seven games, or 2.8 runs per game. It’s no surprise the Under has cashed in each of the past four games overall.

The Under is also 4-0 in the past four White Sox games against right-handed starting pitchers, while going 4-0 in the past four games after a loss, too.

Guardians vs White Sox game info

Starting pitchers

Shane Bieber (3-1, 2.61 ERA): The Guardians ace has managed a 1-0 record, 2.73 ERA, and .228 opponent batting average in 33 innings across five road starts. He’s allowed just four homers in 51 2/3 innings across eight starts, too. The right-hander has lasted six or more innings in all but one of his eight outings, and he has seven quality starts this season.

Lance Lynn (1-5, 7.51 ERA): The right-handed veteran has coughed up 11 homers in just 44 1/3 innings overall, and teams are hitting .295 against him in eight starts with a 7.51 ERA overall. Lefties have especially tuned him up, posting a 1.109 OPS. Even worse, he has a 9.56 ERA in 16 innings in three home starts, with teams hitting .314 against him at Guaranteed Rate Field.

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White Sox are 1-5 in their last six home games vs. a team with a losing record. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs White Sox

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