The New York Yankees will be looking for a three-game sweep of the Cleveland Guardians when the two meet at Yankee Stadium on Sunday. New York is sending Gerrit Cole to the hill in this one, and the righty has a good opportunity to turn things around here.
Will the home favorite get its third win in a row? Continue reading our free Guardians vs. Yankees MLB betting picks and predictions for our favorite plays in this game.
Guardians vs Yankees odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The total in this game opened at 7.0 and it has remained at that number almost everywhere, but DraftKings does have it listed at 7.5 currently. It does seem like other sportsbooks could ultimately meet them at that number, with the Over being heavily juiced at 7.0.
The Yankees, who opened at -205 favorites in this one, remain big favorites over the Guardians. In fact, there is one book that has New York listed at -225, and the best price you’ll find is -200.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitchand be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Guardians vs Yankees predictions
Picks made on 4/24/2022 at 2:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Guardians vs Yankees game info
• Location: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
• Date: Sunday, April 24, 2022
• First pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
• TV: MLB Network, Bally Sports, YES Network
Guardians vs Yankees betting preview
Starting pitchers
Aaron Civale RHP (0-1, 6.14 ERA): Last season, Civale was 12-5 with a 3.84 ERA and he is somebody that the Guardians will be counting on in a big way this year. The righty has, however, allowed five earned runs in only 7 1-3 innings of work this season. This matchup could be one that gives him some confidence though. Civale was 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA in two starts against the Yankees last year.
Gerrit Cole RHP (0-0, 6.35 ERA): Cole hasn’t quite been able to figure it out to start this season, as he has given up eight earned runs in 11 1-3 innings over three starts. The righty has just 12 strikeouts in the year, but he has already walked seven batters and given up three homers and nine hits. Cole is, however, a legitimate ace in this league, so he should be able to turn things around rather quickly.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Guardians: Yu Chang 3B (Out), Luke Maile C (Out), Owen Miller SS (Out).
Yankees: Domingo German P (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 11-2 in the last 14 games that the Yankees have played as favorites. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Yankees
Guardians vs Yankees picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Run line analysis
Cole was chased in the second inning of his last start, as he threw 68 pitches and walked five batters in just 1 2-3 innings on the mound. The righty has, however, thrown less than 70 pitches in two of his three starts this year, and he only threw 85 in the other one.
With that said, Cole’s arm should be feeling good at the moment, and he just needs to go out there and perform at the level that everybody knows he is capable of. There’s a reason the Yankees are such big moneyline favorites in this game, and it’s that same reason that makes us think they can cover the 1.5-run spread here.
It should make Cole feel pretty good that he did have a start last year in which he struck out 11 batters and gave up just one run over seven innings against this Guardians team.
The Cleveland team total in this game also happens to be set at just 2.5, which means the oddsmakers clearly believe that the righty has what it takes to finally give the Yankees some ace-level innings in this start. He can then turn the ball over to a bullpen that has the fourth-best collective ERA in the MLB at 2.26.
Civale was great against the Yankees in his two starts against them last year, but New York should be feeling pretty confident after the way it won Saturday’s game. The Yankees came from behind and won that one in the bottom of the ninth, and it’s just hard to believe they won’t be able to score four or so runs in this contest.
Not only is Civale off to a somewhat slow start in 2022, but the Cleveland bullpen has just a 3.42 ERA this season — which is only good for 17th in the league. We also saw the Guardians bullpen let a game get away just yesterday, so you have to like the Yankees' chances of scoring a few and covering here.
With the pitchers that will be on the mound for the Yanks here, scoring four or so runs would give bettors a great chance to win on the run line.
Prediction: Yankees -1.5 (+102 at Unibet)
Over/Under analysis
Despite the fact this game opened with a total of 7.0 and is currently at that number on most sportsbooks, you can still get at it at 7.5. That really should make it a no-brainer to jump on the Under if you’re able to get it.
The majority of bets in this game will likely end up being on the Over, and that actually makes the total on this one seem a little fishy. With that, it’s always best to zig when everybody else is zagging in sports betting, so we’re suggesting you play the Under here.
While Civale is off to a slow start this season, the righty was great against the Yankees last year. In two starts against New York, Civale gave up just two earned runs in 11 1-3 innings. That has to be something that excites Under bettors, and it’s also worth noting that this Yanks team has scored just 48 runs this season. Only six teams have scored fewer than that this year, but three of those squads have played fewer games.
It should also be noted that Cole is going to snap out of this funk rather quickly. His ERA has been 3.23 or lower in each of the last four seasons, and those numbers just don’t lie. Look for some regression back to the mean in this one, and don’t be surprised if he turns in a stellar start against Cleveland.
Prediction: Under 7.5 (-120 at DraftKings)
Best bet
It’s hard not to view the Under as the best bet in this game, especially when you can get it at a higher number on one sportsbook than everywhere else. While seven runs would mean a push in most places, that isn’t the case everywhere. That just makes this some great value, especially considering the Guardians have a team total of 2.5 in this one and the Yankees team total is heavily juiced on the Under side of the team’s 4.5-run total.
The Under also happens to be 11-4 in the 15 games that the Yankees have played this season, and it’s also 11-3 in the last 14 games that they've played as a favorite. On top of that, the Under is 5-1 in the last six games in which they have gone against right-handed starters, and 11-5-1 in the last 17 home games the Yanks have played with a total between 7.0 and 8.5 — so the games that are supposed to be low-scoring usually are.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-120 at DraftKings)
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