Every MLB team wants to head into the All-Star break on a high note, and so do home-run bettors. BetMGM can help with their Grand Slam Jackpot promotion this weekend.
Every Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, if your first bet (of $10 or more) on a player to hit a home run hits a grand slam that day... you win a share of a $50,000 bonus bet jackpot — in addition to BetMGM having among the best MLB player prop odds for homers in the industry.
There's some strategy involved for maximizing your chances of correctly betting a grand salami, so to prep you for each weekend of action I'll break down my best picks for Friday... along with the best pitchers/players to target, ahead of Saturday and Sunday play.
BetMGM Grand Slam Jackpot picks for tonight
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (+180 at BetMGM)
If you’re looking for big flys, why not focus on Camden Yards, where the two biggest-bopping clubs link up.
The Orioles and Yankees rank 1-2 at the top of the MLB home run leaderboard, and we’ll single out baseball’s most prolific dinger man — Aaron Judge.
Judge has belted 32 homers on the year, and he’s due. The New York outfielder has gone seven games without a home run, his longest drought since he went eight games in late April.
He will face lefty Cade Povich, who’s been lit up for five home runs in his last three starts, with two apiece against the A’s and Rangers in back-to-back performances.
Judge is hitting .310 against left-handed pitching, with eight homers in 71 at-bats on the year.
Spencer Steer, Cincinnati Reds (+425 at BetMGM)
Cincinnati outfielder Spencer Steer feels like a sneaky good pick as the Reds open up a three-game set against the Miami Marlins.
Steer has homered in each of his last four series, and he’ll draw Yonny Chirinos on Friday, a 30-year-old converted relief pitcher making just his fifth start of the year.
Chirinos has allowed two home runs in just over 19 innings of work, and right handers are hitting him at a crisp .310 clip.
Environment also matters in this particular matchup, as Cincinnati’s Great American Ballpark has yielded the most round-trippers in baseball this season with 124.
Great American, along with the Dodger Stadium, are the only two parks that have topped 120+ home runs surrendered on the year.
Steer has hit 11 of his 14 long balls at home, eight of those off right-handed pitching.
BetMGM Grand Slam Jackpot - Saturday preview
Bashing Berrios
Jose Berrios (Blue Jays): A guy with an 8-6 record and 3.76 ERA, Berrios’ major Achilles’ heel is that he can’t keep the ball in the park.
He’s allowed 21 home runs on the year, the only pitcher in the bigs that’s topped the 20-HR plateau.
Berrios broke through that ceiling last time out against the Mariners, when he was tagged for two dingers in a game Toronto eventually won 5-4 in 10 innings.
He’s had just one start in his last 14 where he hasn’t been taken yard.
Arizona’s Chase Field yields the third-fewest homers in baseball, and that’s still not enough to take us off this wager.
Possible picks: Christian Walker, Ketel Marte, Lourdes Gurriel Jr
Something felt off
Ryan Feltner (Rockies): Even though he’s pitched better of late, Rockies starter Ryan Feltner still has two losses in his last three to drop him to 1-8 with a 5.29 ERA.
He’s in New York to take on a Mets team that has been doing some damage offensively, and currently ranks fifth in the majors with 114 homers on the season.
This will be his first start against the Mets in 2024, but he has been taken yard at Citi Field by Pete Alonso, the only current Met that has a home run against him.
Feltner, who has surrendered 12 long balls on the season, hasn’t given one up in four straight starts — easily the longest stretch of his campaign so far. I feel like he’s due for a blow up.
Possible picks: Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo
BetMGM Grand Slam Jackpot - Sunday preview
Bats get Lively
Ben Lively (Guardians): He might be 8-4 on the year with a 3.59 ERA, but Ben Lively has been susceptible to the deep ball of late.
The 32-year-old righty was popped for two dingers in his last start in Detroit, pushing him to 13 homers allowed on the season, with six overall in his last five starts.
His recent struggles are why we’re targeting him and not his opponent on the other end, Ryan Pepiot, who’s also on the 10+ homers allowed list.
While he’s a perfect 5-0 at home this year, Lively is just 3-4 on the road, where he’s been tagged for eight homers.
Tampa isn’t exactly a home-run hitting dynamo, but it has hit at least one long ball in four of the last five contests.
Possible picks: Isaac Paredes, Randy Arozarena
Stat-padding
Chris Paddack (Twins): Twins righty Chris Paddack was taken yard last start in Chicago against the White Sox, and an all-too-familiar scenario for the 28-year-old lately.
He’s been taken deep in seven of his last 10 starts, for a total of nine long balls.
He’s in San Francisco to take on a Giants team that has ripped five grand slams on the season.
Paddack has also been taken yard by current Giants Wilmer Flores and Mike Yastrzemski twice each.
And the road hasn’t been particularly friendly, as teams are hitting .293 against him with six home runs, helping contribute to a bloated 7.25 ERA.
Possible picks: Matt Chapman, Wilmer Flores, Mike Yastrzemski
Key considerations for betting on a grand slam
Grand slams aren't frequent, but if you want to maximize your chance of your bet being the biggest of big flies, here are some statistics to consider:
- From the start of the 2022 season through June 2024, the highest percentage of all plate appearances with the bases loaded was the No. 6 spot (13.51%), followed by the No. 5 hitter (12.89%). Seventh in the order is third at 11.66%, just barely ahead of the cleanup spot (10.85%).
- The No. 3 spot — traditionally a team's best hitter — unsurprisingly has the best home run rate with the bases loaded (3.72%, just ahead of Nos. 2, 4, and 1), but the three-hole actually has the third-fewest PAs with the bases loaded in that span — while the bottom of the order (Nos. 8/9) have the two worst HR rates of all lineup spots.
- The only spots with fewer grand slam chances than No. 3? That would be the leadoff hitter and No. 2 spot, both of which had less than 10% of all bases-loaded PAs.
What's the takeaway? The No. 3 hitter is often your best chance of a home run, but betting on hitters in the 4-7 spot in the order is likely your best shot of getting an at-bat with the bases loaded.
