Coming off a 7-4 win over the Boston Red Sox, the Texas Rangers continue to look to make a postseason push in the back half of the season.
The MLB odds have the Rangers -130 with each team notching a win as they head into the final match of a three-game series.
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and Red Sox vs. Rangers predictions on Sunday, Aug. 4.
Red Sox vs Rangers prediction
My best bet
Corey Seager Over 1.5 total bases (+105 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
It would appear that despite the Texas Rangers’ struggles as a team this season, Corey Seager has overcome his World Series hangover. He’s now playing like he’s consumed piles of greasy food while hydrating himself with Gatorade and catching up on sleep.
After an ugly opening month to the season followed by uneven performances in May and June, he was back to his All-Star form in July. In 24 games last month, Seager slashed .311/.398/.522 with 47 total bases.
He’s riding that momentum into August, too. In two games against the Boston Red Sox this month, he’s put on a show going 4-for-8 with two dingers. That dominance should continue into Game 3 against Boston with Nick Pivetta taking the mound.
The 31-year-old Pivetta has been wildly inconsistent this season and has been shelled in his last two outings. In starts against the Colorado Rockies and Seattle Mariners, he combined to allow 16 hits, 10 earned runs, and four homers in just 9 1/3 innings of work.
It won’t get any easier for him against Seager either. Pivetta primarily leans on three pitches with his four-seamer (48.2%), sweeper (24.5%), and curveball (15.3%). Seager can hit them all, and hard.
While his slow start to the season has impacted his numbers overall against four-seamers, Seager has historically had his most success against them. He’s still putting up a .262 xBA and .612 xSLG with a 65.6% hard-hit rate against them this season.
The only pitch he’s hitting hard is sweepers with a .308 average, 1.000 SLG, and 75% hard-hit rate. And it’s not as if he’s struggling to blast curves — he’s hitting .400 with a .733 SLG against them this year.
Pivetta’s pitch repertoire has no answers for Seager.
Red Sox vs Rangers same-game parlay (SGP)
Corey Seager Over 1.5 total bases
Marcus Semien Over 0.5 hits
Jarren Duran 1+ hits
While Seager took a while to get going, Marcus Semien has been the Rangers’ most consistent bat all year. He leads the team in hits (109) and is averaging 1.1 per game since the start of July.
He too should find success against Pivetta thanks to his .298 xBA and .503 xSLG against four-seamers this season. But for as hot as Seager and Semien have been, it’s hard to find a better bat than Jarren Duran’s as of late.
The Red Sox’s All-Star exploded in June and kept mashing in July with a .306/.356/.546 slash line. Since the beginning of June, he’s averaging 1.5 hits per game and should be able to get at least one off of Texas starter Nathan Eovaldi.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Red Sox vs Rangers odds
Red Sox vs Rangers live odds
Red Sox vs Rangers opening odds
- Run line: Boston +1.5 (-200) | Texas -1.5 (+165)
- Moneyline: Boston +113 | Texas -122
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Red Sox vs Rangers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Coming off its win over Boston on Saturday, Texas opened as a -125 to -135 moneyline favorite.
- The Rangers are just 53-58 on the season, third in the AL West, while the Red Sox are 58-51, third in the AL East.
- The Over/Under opened as high as 8.5 with most books now sitting between 7.5 and 8. A few books are offering the Under at plus-money.
- Boston is among the best Over betting teams in MLB at 55-47-7, but Texas is among the worst at 49-58-4.
Red Sox vs Rangers trend
The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 50 games (+13.25 Units / 24% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Rangers.
Red Sox vs Rangers game info
| Location: | Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX |
| Date: | Sunday, 8-4-2024 |
| First pitch: | 2:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NESN, Bally Sports Southwest |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Nick Pivetta (5-7, 4.47 ERA) |
| Rangers starting pitcher: | Nathan Eovaldi (8-4, 3.38 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Rangers latest injuries
Red Sox vs Rangers weather
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