Playing the Milwaukee Bucks for the second time in three games, the Orlando Magic look to bounce back after losing by just three to Giannis Antetokounmpo & Co. this past Friday.
With Orlando still down two starters and Antetokounmpo unlikely to pop off for 41 points again, I’m expecting defense to be the name of the game in my Magic vs. Bucks predictions and NBA picks for Wednesday, January 15.
Magic vs Bucks prediction
My best bet
Under 211.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Orlando Magic were never going to be an offensive juggernaut this season, but losing Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs, and Moritz Wagner for an extended period has put even more pressure on Jamahl Mosley’s team’s defense-first mentality.
While Banchero is finally back in the lineup and carrying the load offensively with his 28.4 ppg, without the Wagners and Suggs (a combined 53.7 ppg) no other player in the Magic’s lineup is scoring in the double-digits. The next healthy leading scorer is Goga Bitadze and his 9.6 ppg, and even he’s questionable to suit up against the Milwaukee Bucks.
With this depleted lineup, I don’t see how Orlando is going to consistently score against Milwaukee. Doc Rivers’ squad is playing competent defense right now — allowing the 12th-fewest ppg (111.5) and ranking 11th in defensive rating (112.0). It has held four of its last five opponents to 106 or fewer points.
Banchero obviously haș the ability to shine at any time, but the Bucks have handled power forwards well this year. Fours are scoring the seventh-fewest points per game in the league against Milwaukee (20.7) and the Bucks are giving up the fifth-lowest field goal percentage (45.3%).
That spells trouble for a Magic team that’s last in the NBA in points per game (104.8) and third-last in offensive rating (108.7). But there’s a reason Orlando is fourth in the Eastern Conference despite its troubling offensive play… it’s playing like it’s the 2004 Pistons.
This defense has been incredible, even with all the injuries, and sits second in the league in rating (107.1) while allowing the fewest points per game in the NBA (103.2). Giannis Antetokounmpo will be challenging to slow, but the Magic are holding power forwards to the fifth-fewest points per game (20.33), and I don’t expect the Greek Freak to have another all-time type of performance against Mosley’s team.
The Bucks have also been an offense that relies heavily on threes, as it’s hitting the sixth-most in the league (14.4) at the second-highest clip (38.6%), but no team plays better perimeter defense that Orlando. The Magic allow the fewest threes per game in the NBA (11.1).
Another factor that will help Orlando, and this Under, is that the Magic play slow. They’re last in the Association in pace factor (96.4), which leads to them putting up the fewest shots per game (85.0) and allowing the fewest shots per game (80.4).
So even with their injuries, I think the Magic can play good enough defense to hit the Under for the seventh time in eight games.
Magic vs Bucks same-game parlay
Under 211.5
Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 29.5 points
Cole Anthony Over 0.5 steals
Keeping Antetokounmpo quiet is essentially impossible, but holding him to fewer than 30 points? Orlando can pull that off, and this line is slightly higher than expected simply due to the Greek Freak putting up 41 on this defense the other night.
Antetokounmpo has been a little inconsistent in recent outings, too, after returning from a four-game absence. He’s gone Over 29.5 points just twice in his last six games, and he’s averaging 26.5 ppg over that stretch.
Shutting him down completely isn’t going to happen, but keeping him to 29 is entirely possible. He’s not the only star Orlando needs to slow down with Damian Lillard still playing at a high level.
That means Cole Anthony needs to keep up his pesky play. With Suggs out, Anthony has been flashing his ability to create turnovers with seven steals in his last four starts.
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Magic vs Bucks odds
Magic vs Bucks live odds
Magic vs Bucks opening odds
- Spread: Orlando +6 | Milwaukee -6
- Moneyline: Orlando +190 | Milwaukee -230
- Over/Under: Over 211.5 | Under 211.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Magic vs Bucks spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Bucks opened as a 6-point home favorite and the line has seen little movement after Antetokounmpo took the court Tuesday despite being listed as day-to-day.
- Milwaukee is just 17-21-1 ATS this season while Orlando is among the best teams ATS at 22-18-1.
- The Over/Under for this matchup opened as high as 212.5 and has dipped to as low as 210.5.
- Neither of these teams are a consistent Over bet with the Bucks just 18-21 and the Magic even worse at 16-25.
Magic vs Bucks trend
The Magic have hit the Under in 46 of their last 74 games (+15.20 Units / 19% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Magic vs. Bucks.
How to watch Magic vs Bucks
| Location: | Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Wednesday, 1-15-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FDSN |
Magic vs Bucks latest injuries
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