There's no better way to celebrate the Fourth of July weekend than cheering for fireworks on the diamond — and BetMGM's Grand Slam Jackpot has made hitting your dinger bets potentially even more profitable.
Every Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, if your first bet (of $10 or more) on a player to hit a home run hits a grand slam that day... you win a share of a $50,000 bonus bet jackpot — in addition to BetMGM having among the best MLB player prop odds for homers in the industry.
There's some strategy involved for maximizing your chances of correctly betting a grand salami, so to prep you for each weekend of action I'll break down my best picks for Friday... along with the best pitchers/players to target, ahead of Saturday and Sunday play.
BetMGM Grand Slam Jackpot picks for tonight
Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers (+425 at BetMGM)
I get it: Shohei Ohtani is always the safest choice when betting a Dodgers home run... but considering he's in the leadoff spot, he's not the best choice to try and hit this jackpot on Independence Day weekend.
Instead, I'm looking at Freddie Freeman: LA's No. 3 hitter who has three multi-hit games in his last five and is batting .339 with four homers off righties over the previous 30 days, as he and the Dodgers face Milwaukee Brewers righty Aaron Civale.
Civale was acquired from Tampa Bay two days ago and has struggled all season, allowing a home run in 14/17 starts in 2024. Over the last 30 days, southpaws are hitting .294 off of him with a 54% fly-ball rate.
Add in that the Dodgers have the fourth-most plate appearances with bases loaded against righties over the last month (three of which were Freeman) and I wouldn't be shocked if Frederick got a chance to swat a salami.
Seiya Suzuki, Chicago Cubs (+260 at BetMGM)
The wind is expected to be around 13 mph blowing straight out to right-center field at Wrigley this afternoon... meaning the chance of a home run is very, very good.
Especially when the Los Angeles Angels are trotting out Griffin Canning, who has allowed five HR in his last four starts and at least one long ball in eight of his last nine outings. The righty has reverse platoon splits, with RHH posting a .292 average and four HR over the last month, plus the Halos bullpen has allowed the 12th-most dingers in that span.
No. 3 hitter Cody Bellinger has hits in 14 of his last 15 games (.339 average overall), but the lefty's aversion to hitting the ball in the air pushes me to cleanup hitter Seiya Suzuki — a righty who is hitting .263 with five HR (and a 47% FB rate) off same-side pitching over the last 30 days, while also posting two multi-hit games in his last three overall.
BetMGM Grand Slam Jackpot - Saturday preview
Too Pfaadt to trot
The San Diego Padres are second in the Majors in home runs over the last month — and even without the services of star Fernando Tatis Jr., the Friars are still launching, sitting fourth in dingers since he got injured on June 21.
They've especially beat up on righties, hitting .282 with 15 long balls, and will face Arizona Diamondbacks RHP Brandon Pfaadt, who has allowed seven dingers in his last five starts, with lefties hitting .345 off him during that span, although righties have a higher HR rate.
LHH Jackson Merrill, who was batting sixth but got moved to No. 3 yesterday, is hitting .403 with five HR against righties over the last month, while cleanup hitter (and RHH) Manny Machado has homered in two of his last five games and switch-hitter Jurickson Profar has been the Padres best healthy hitter all season (albeit he bats second).
Possible picks: Jackson Merrill > Manny Machado > Jurickson Profar
Any place but home
Pittsburgh Pirates lefty Bailey Falter has not surrendered a home run on the road over his last five starts. Too bad he's at home tomorrow, where he has seen seven balls leave the yard across his last five appearances.
Making matters worse is it will be the New York Mets — first in HR against LHP and third in HR overall during the last 30 days — coming to town.
Falter's platoon splits are relatively even (and not in a good way), so I'd look at Mark Vientos (.300 with two HR off LHP over the last month), who has jumped between fifth and third in the lineup, cleanup hitter Pete Alonso (same numbers as Vientos but a higher flyball rate), and catcher Francisco Alvarez, who also usually bats around the 5-6 spot and is hitting .339 overall during the previous month.
Possible picks: Mark Vientos > Pete Alonso > Francisco Alvarez
BetMGM Grand Slam Jackpot - Sunday preview
Sunday night special
I mentioned fading New York Yankees righty Luis Gil in my most recent Dinger Tuesday article, and he did not disappoint, giving up a home run but also again getting into trouble on the basepaths with plenty of walks.
Tuesday was his third outing in his last four with 3+ BBs, and the Boston Red Sox have the sixth-best walk rate over the last month... and plenty of power in the middle of the order to make Gil pay.
Cleanup hitter Rafael Devers is hitting .407 with three HR off righties in the last two weeks and has three multi-hit games in his last four, while No. 3 hitter Tyler O'Neill enters Friday seven for his last 13.
You could also look at Masataka Yoshida, who's been batting in the six spot lately, has three multi-hit games in his last four, and has a 37% FB rate off righties in that span.
Possible picks: Rafael Devers > Tyler O'Neill > Masataka Yoshida
A's have O's woes
Sunday will also see Oakland A's righty Mitch Spence try to slow down the Baltimore Orioles, who lead the league in dingers and have shown no sign of slowing down.
Gunnar Henderson is the most obvious choice but, like Ohtani, bats leadoff so his Grand Slam opportunities are lower than most of his peers.
However, Anthony Santander (who usually bats cleanup) and Heston Kjerstad (if he's batting fifth, as he has more often than not) are hitting .278 and .333 — including 52% and 60% fly-ball rates — with two homers each off righties over the last two weeks... including a Kjerstad grand slam on June 29.
Of course, with the depth of the Orioles lineup, Gunnar is also still in play.
Possible picks: Anthony Santander > Heston Kjerstad > Gunnar Henderson
Key considerations for betting on a grand slam
Grand slams aren't frequent, but if you want to maximize your chance of your bet being the biggest of big flies, here are some statistics to consider:
- From the start of the 2022 season through June 2024, the highest percentage of all plate appearances with the bases loaded was the No. 6 spot (13.51%), followed by the No. 5 hitter (12.89%). Seventh in the order is third at 11.66%, just barely ahead of the cleanup spot (10.85%).
- The No. 3 spot — traditionally a team's best hitter — unsurprisingly has the best home run rate with the bases loaded (3.72%, just ahead of Nos. 2, 4, and 1), but the three-hole actually has the third-fewest PAs with the bases loaded in that span — while the bottom of the order (Nos. 8/9) have the two worst HR rates of all lineup spots.
- The only spots with fewer grand slam chances than No. 3? That would be the leadoff hitter and No. 2 spot, both of which had less than 10% of all bases-loaded PAs.
What's the takeaway? The No. 3 hitter is often your best chance of a home run, but betting on hitters in the 4-7 spot in the order is likely your best shot of getting an at-bat with the bases loaded.
