The New York Mets will look to finish the first half of the season with a winning record as they take on the Pittsburgh Pirates in the finale of their four-game series at PNC Park.
New York staged a late comeback to win on Sunday, and I’ll break down whether they can steal another win as the underdog in my Mets vs. Pirates predictions.
Read on for my favorite MLB picks on Monday, July 8.
Mets vs Pirates prediction
My best bet
Pirates moneyline (-108 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The New York Mets have rejuvenated their season by turning what was once a stagnant offense into one of the more productive units in the league over the past month. However, they are still suffering from a lack of starting pitching depth, and that could prove to be a problem for them in today's game against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
New York will send 25-year-old rookie Christian Scott to the mound this afternoon, and while there are some promising signs, he hasn’t done anything particularly well enough to impress at the MLB level.
Scott’s strikeout numbers (7.3 per nine innings) are pedestrian, he’s given up four homers in his first 33 1/3 innings of work, and his control has been average. In his last start, he allowed four runs on six hits over 5 2/3 innings of work against the Washington Nationals, a team with similar offensive punch to the Pirates.
While it’s still too early to make any definitive conclusions, it is notable that Scott has struggled on the road. At Citi Field, he has pitched to a stellar 0.94 WHIP in his first three starts. However, that number has jumped to 1.35 on the road with a notably lower strikeout rate.
Meanwhile, the Pirates will counter with Mitch Keller, who was their de facto ace before the incredible Paul Skenes emerged. Keller is 9-5 with a 3.48 ERA and solid peripherals all around, including a 1.25 WHIP.
Like Scott, Keller has been far better at home than on the road this year, posting an ERA nearly a run lower at PNC Park.
The Mets were lucky to escape with a win on Sunday, and are facing a more challenging matchup today in the series finale. I’m taking the Pirates to win, and looking to do so at one of the few books that have this game as a straight pick ‘em matchup
Mets vs Pirates same-game parlay (SGP)
Pirates moneyline
Over 8.5
Bryan Reynolds to record a hit
While I like the Pirates to close out their first half of the season with a win, I’m not enamored with the pitching matchup. That’s why I’m starting my same-game parlay by pairing the Pirates to win with the Over. The Pittsburgh offense should have opportunities against Scott, while the Mets have been scoring more runs as of late, making the 8.5 total feel more than reachable.
Bryan Reynolds has at least one hit in four of his last five games and is hitting a solid .279 against right-handed pitching this season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mets vs Pirates odds
Mets vs Pirates live odds
Mets vs Pirates opening odds
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+155) | Pittsburgh +1.5 (-185)
- Moneyline: New York -105 | Pittsburgh -115
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (+100)
Mets vs Pirates spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Mets are 1-5 in Scott’s starts this season, while the Pirates have gone 11-6 when Keller has taken the hill.
- Neither team has done well against the moneyline this season, with New York losing about a unit for the year and Pittsburgh down over five units for backers.
- The Pirates are playing to an average total of 8.46 runs per game, while Mets games are averaging a total of 9.59.
- The Over holds a 46-39 edge in New York’s games, while the Under has the 46-40 advantage when Pittsburgh plays.
Mets vs Pirates trend
The Pirates are 8-2 in Keller’s last 10 starts overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Pirates
Mets vs Pirates game info
| Location: | PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date: | Monday, 7-8-2024 |
| First pitch: | 12:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNY, SportsNet Pittsburgh |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Christian Scott (0-2, 4.32 ERA) |
| Pirates starting pitcher: | Mitch Keller (9-5, 3.48 ERA) |
Mets vs Pirates latest injuries
Mets vs Pirates weather
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