Mariners vs Blue Jays Predictions, Picks, Odds: Jays Crush Flexen

The Toronto Blue Jays look to get more payback for their ugly 2022 playoff exit at the hands of the Seattle Mariners as the two teams collide again Saturday at Rogers Centre.

George Springer’s RBI single was the decisive hit as the Blue Jays edged last night’s series opener 3-2, with aces Alek Manoah and Luis Castillo going toe-to-toe for five innings. That stretched Toronto’s current win streak to five games.

The Mariners’ form has been trending in the other direction, with seven losses in their last 10 outings contributing to an underwhelming 11-15 start for a team expected to contend this year. Seattle is 4-6 on the road and turns to fill-in Chris Flexen, who has struggled as a starter.

Find out more in our MLB picks and predictions for Mariners vs. Blue Jays on April 29.

Mariners vs Blue Jays odds

Mariners vs Blue Jays predictions

Kevin Gausman takes the ball for Toronto this afternoon, coming off an elite performance against the New York Yankees in his last start. He struck out 11 in seven scoreless innings at Yankee Stadium, and he’s primed for another dominant day against the struggling Mariners.

With Gausman rolling, I’m taking the Blue Jays to stretch their hot streak to six straight wins, and the -1.5 runline adds some extra value given the hefty price for the straight-up Toronto moneyline. 

Gausman was on the mound for Game 2 of the wild-card series against the Mariners as Toronto blew an 8-1 lead. He was tagged for four of the Seattle runs in that comeback, and I like the added motivation for Gausman to make amends today.

While Ty France and Teoscar Hernandez have had success against the Toronto right-hander, this Mariners line-up was shut out against the Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday before a two-run night yesterday.

With Chris Flexen’s ERA soaring after three rough outings in a row, I see the Blue Jays’ bats and relievers giving Gausman all the support he needs on the way to a comfortable win.

My best bet: Toronto run line -1.5 (-138 at SIA)

Mariners vs Blue Jays moneyline analysis

With Gausman on the mound this afternoon, the Blue Jays were always likely to be favored, but the matchup against Flexen has pushed the Toronto moneyline price all the way up to -269.

It’s tough to feel good about Flexen and the Mariners in this spot. They’ve lost three in a row and the bats were quiet last night. Julio Rodriguez, Jarred Kelenic, and Cal Raleigh accounted for all six hits, with nothing else from the rest of the line-up.

Flexen’s ERA has ballooned to 8.86 while filling in for the injured Robbie Ray, and he’s facing a Blue Jays team that is looking even more dangerous with Alejandro Kirk starting to find his rhythm. Kirk had three hits, including a homer, in last night’s win.

Matt Chapman has two career HRs against Flexen, while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has taken four hits off the Seattle right-hander in six at-bats.

Mariners vs Blue Jays Over/Under analysis

Last night’s series opener only served up five runs, but that was no huge surprise, given the teams’ aces got the start. I expect the offenses to get more traction at the plate this afternoon, particularly with Flexen leaking runs this season. A 9-run line feels about right, with the potential for fireworks.

Still, the Blue Jays have trended towards the Under, which is 5-0-1 in their last six games after a win and 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Toronto. Even when the lineup has been in a groove, the pitching has often held the opposition in check – and the series sweep of the Chicago White Sox was a perfect example, as the Blue Jays won 5-2, 7-0, and 8-0.

Though the Mariners have cashed in the Over in Flexen’s last six starts when their opponent allows two runs or fewer in their prior game, there’s also some appeal for the Under, which has hit in Seattle’s last five games after a loss.

Mariners vs Blue Jays game info

Mariners vs Blue Jays betting preview

Starting pitchers

Chris Flexen (0-4, 8.86 ERA): It’s been a rocky month for Flexen, who’s been overextended in what’s likely a temporary starting gig. He was pounded for six runs on nine hits last weekend against the St. Louis Cardinals.

Kevin Gausman (2-2, 2.84 ERA): With a minimum of fuss, Gausman is off to a terrific start this season. He’s recorded 41 Ks and a 1.01 WHIP, and he looked every inch a Cy Young candidate in overpowering the Yankees last week.

Latest injuries

Trend to know

The Blue Jays’ games continue to hammer the Under this season, in part because Toronto’s pitching has been lights-out lately. The Under is 8-0-1 in their last nine outings. Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Blue Jays

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