The Seattle Mariners will look to knock the Toronto Blue Jays out of the postseason at Rogers Center on Saturday afternoon.
After blanking the Jays 4-0 last night, the M's send former Toronto starter Robbie Ray to the mound in the hopes of sweeping this best-of-three AL Wild Card round. Oddsmakers are expecting the Jays to bounce back with MLB betting lines opening with them as -150 home favorites and shifting to as high as -182 at one book.
Here are my best free Mariners vs. Blue Jays MLB picks and predictions for October 8.
Mariners vs Blue Jays best odds
Mariners vs Blue Jays picks and predictions
Ray was a stud for the Jays last year but has been inconsistent this season and went 0-4 in his last five starts with a 5.27 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP across 27 1-3 innings.
The lefty has been getting hit hard with an average exit velocity that ranks in the bottom 20th percentile of pitchers, and a hard-hit rate in the bottom 40th percentile.
One Toronto batter that could take advantage of that is Teoscar Hernandez, who had a slugging percentage of .491 with 25 homers and 35 doubles in 131 games.
Hernandez ranks among the top fifth percentile of hitters in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and expected slugging percentage. He also slugs .648 against southpaws and boasts a .519 slugging percentage at home.
Hernandez didn't hit well in August amidst rumors that he was playing through a foot injury, but he caught fire down the stretch and in his last four regular season games went 9-17 at the plate with two doubles and three dingers. I'm taking the Over 1.5 on his total bases at plus money.
My best bet: Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 total bases (+140)
Looking to bet on some MLB action? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Cal Raleigh each Over 2.5 total bases BOOSTED to +700 at Caesars! Bet Now
B) New users at DraftKings can get a deposit bonus up to $1,000! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only
Mariners vs Blue Jays Wild Card odds
| Teams | Odds to win series |
|---|---|
 Seattle Mariners |
-225 |
 Toronto Blue Jays |
+190 |
Mariners vs Blue Jays moneyline analysis
The Jays were shut down by hard-throwing Luis Castillo and reliever Andres Munoz last night, scattering seven hits, with six of those being singles.
That said, this Toronto lineup was one of the best in baseball during the regular season and will look to bounce back in this one despite facing a strong starter in Ray.
While Ray makes batters miss and doesn't struggle with his control as much as he did earlier in his career, the velocity on his most highly-used pitches (his four-seamer, slider, and sinker) has ticked down by about 1.5 mph from a year ago.
That's seen some regression for Ray who had an expected ERA of 3.60 last season despite an actual ERA of 2.84. Ray has been getting hit hard and has surrendered the third-most homers in the majors.
That's bad news against a Jays lineup that finished the regular season leading the majors in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity while clubbing the seventh-most home runs.
The Jays respond with Kevin Gausman, who they signed to replace Ray in the offseason. Gausman has also taken a step backward after a terrific 2021 campaign, and while his ERA sits at a solid 3.35 (with a nearly identical xERA of 3.34) his opponent batting average of .272 is alarming.
The Mariners ranked just 27th in the majors in batting average (.230) and were 23rd in hard-hit rate. That said, they are more productive on the road and have been patient at the plate, ranking second in the majors in walk rate.
Mariners vs Blue Jays Over/Under analysis
Ray took on the Jays back in July and limited them to just three hits and one run through six innings, but that contest took place in Seattle where he has been significantly better.
The lefty has struggled in road contests pitching to a 4.69 ERA with a .262 OBA in 14 away starts.
The Mariners were a pretty sub-par team at the plate this season but did bat better away from pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park, plating 4.59 runs per game on the road compared to 3.93 at home.
Gausman faced the Mariners at Rogers Center earlier this season, scattering seven hits and two runs through five innings of work.
That said, like Ray, Gausman did not look sharp toward the end of the season and had a 4.55 ERA in his last five starts.
Thankfully, he benefitted from run support from a Jays lineup that was third in the majors with an OPS of .760 and bumped that number up to .799 in the final 30 days of the regular season.
Mariners vs Blue Jays trend to know
The Mariners are 6-0 in the last six games in the head-to-head between these teams, while the Under has cashed in five-straight meetings in Toronto. Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Blue Jays
Mariners vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Saturday, October 8, 2022 |
| First pitch: | 4:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN, Sportsnet |
Starting pitchers
Robbie Ray (12-12, 3.71 ERA): Ray won the American League Cy Young Award with the Jays in 2021 after leading the AL in ERA (2.84), strikeouts (248), and WHIP (1.04). He has regressed this season, with his ERA ballooning to 3.71 despite playing his home games at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park, his FIP rising from 3.69 to 4.17, and his WHIP ticking up to 1.19.
Kevin Gausman (12-10, 3.35 ERA): Gausman also had a terrific campaign in 2021 when he finished in sixth place in the NL Cy Young race after going 14-6 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.04 WHIP with the Giants. Although his ERA and WHIP (1.24) have also regressed this year, his FIP (3.00 to 2.38) and strikeout-to-walk ratio (4.54 to 7.32) have both seen significant improvement.
Mariners vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Mariners vs Blue Jays weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
