The Seattle Mariners and Boston Red Sox wrap up a three-game series at Fenway Park this afternoon.
Seattle is atop the AL West standings after winning 10-6 last night, and my Mariners vs. Red Sox predictions for today are betting on another win for the visitors. Here are my best free MLB picks for this AL showdown.
Mariners vs Red Sox prediction
My best bet
Mariners moneyline (-115 at DraftKings)
My analysis
It's surprising to see this line so close, given the disparity between starting pitchers in this matchup. The Seattle Mariners are sending one of the top young pitchers in the game to the mound in George Kirby (3.03 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 130 2/3 inning), while the Boston Red Sox are responding with Brayan Bello (5.27 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 100 2/3 inning)
Kirby has been even better lately, pitching to a 1.88 ERA with a 0.93 WHIP and an OBA of .218 in 10 starts. Bello has been trending in the opposite direction, posting a 6.24 ERA with a 1.67 WHIP and an OBA of .315 in his previous 10 outings.
While the Mariners' batting numbers aren't as impressive as Boston's, that's largely due to playing their home games at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park. The M's strike out at the highest rate in the majors, but they drive the ball when they make contact, and Bello doesn't do a good job of making batters miss.
The M's are sixth in the majors in barrel rate, fourth in exit velocity, and third in hard-hit rate. The BoSox are slightly worse than Seattle in all of those categories, ranking eighth in barrel rate and exit velocity while sitting fourth in hard-hit rate.
The gap between these two lineups isn't as big as it might appear at first glance. However, the gulf between Kirby and Bello on the mound is massive.
Mariners vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Mariners moneyline
George Kirby Over 5.5 strikeouts
Rafael Devers Over 0.5 hits
The Red Sox have been on fire at the plate, but they still strike out at the fourth-highest rate in the majors (24.9%). Kirby has racked up 6+ punchouts in six of his last eight outings. He has also hit that number in his last three starts against Boston — including his season debut when he fanned eight batters through 6 2/3 innings of shutout ball.
While I expect the Seattle hurler to have success, I also think Rafael Devers will almost certainly pick up a hit. The two-time Silver Slugger winner is batting .333 this month, and he thrives with the platoon advantage. He's also gone 5-for-10 at the dish against Kirby in his career.
Over 0.5 hits for Devers is priced at -270, but due to its correlation with our other two bets in this SGP, it creates a nice multiplier.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mariners vs Red Sox odds
Mariners vs Red Sox live odds
Mariners vs Red Sox opening odds
- Run line: Seattle -1.5 (+120) | Boston +1.5 (-140)
- Moneyline: Seattle -125 | Boston +105
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-115) | Under 9.5 (-105)
Mariners vs Red Sox spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Red Sox have been on fire at the dish since the All-Star break, leading the majors with a .297 batting average while ranking second in OPS (.907).
- Despite that red-hot hitting, the Sox are just 3-8 since the break and they are in third place in the AL East with a 56-50 record.
- The Mariners are 4-1 in their last five games, and they now have a one-game lead atop the Astros in the AL West with a 57-52 mark.
- Kirby has made three starts against Boston since last season, allowing just two runs and fanning 21 batters across 18 2/3 innings.
Mariners vs Red Sox trend
The Mariners have hit the first five innings (F5) moneyline in seven of their last 11 away games (+4.75 Units / 30% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Red Sox
Mariners vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 7-31-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ROOT Sports Northwest, NESN |
| Mariners starting pitcher: | George Kirby (8-7, 3.03 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Brayan Bello (10-5, 5.27 ERA) |
Mariners vs Red Sox latest injuries
Mariners vs Red Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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