The New York Yankees got its first series win against the Seattle Mariners last night and will wrap things up today.
Luis Gil takes the hump for N.Y. and my Mariners vs. Yankees prediction expects him to rack up the Ks against Seattle. Find out more in my MLB picks for this May 23 tilt.
Mariners vs Yankees prediction
My best bet
Luis Gil Over 7.5 strikeouts (+110 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
This is a perfect matchup for any pitcher with a high strikeout rate: thus, you love it for Luis Gil. He’ll enter this game with a strikeout rate that sits in the Top 20% of baseball and is coming off a start where he struck out six. That matchup came against a team that strikeouts out at the eighth lowest clip in baseball. This one? It comes against a team with the most strikeouts in baseball at 10, and that rate has increased recently.
Gil has been very good for the New York Yankees this season. He’ll enter this matchup with an expected ERA directly in line with his actual ERA, which makes you believe his performances are sustainable. In addition, he comes into this game with his biggest flaw: a walk rate that is a little too high.
If you look back at his games where we saw high K clips, they came in games against opponents with, as expected, a high strikeout rate but also against teams with a high whiff rate. Gil has posted starts that included nine and 14 strikeouts already this season.
These starts came against the Chicago White Sox and Tampa Bay Rays — both in the Bottom 10 of both metrics. The Mariners rank? As we mentioned, it has the highest strikeout rate in the league and the fourth-highest whiff rate in baseball.
The data tells us Gil should have a comfortable outing here and create many swings and misses. I’m happy to take this plus money price that I had closer to a coin.
Mariners vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Luis Gil Over 7.5 strikeouts
Luis Castillo Under 5.5 hits allowed
For whatever reason, Luis Castillo shows up against the Yankees. In all four career starts he’s made against New York, he’s never allowed more than five hits.
I’m willing to back that trend again for this same-game parlay blindly. Castillo has had an up-and-down season, but despite his issues, he’s kept his hits down. I projected 4.4 hits allowed — this number is just simply too high.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mariners vs Yankees odds
Mariners vs Yankees live odds
Mariners vs Yankees opening odds
- Run line: Seattle +1.5 (-180) | New York -1.5 (+150)
- Moneyline: Seattle +115 | New York -135
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-120) | Under 7.5 (+100)
Mariners vs Yankees spread and Over/Under analysis
- These teams are 5-5 over the last 10 meetings.
- The Yankees opened at -135 and have been bet up to north of -160 as of writing.
- After opening at 8.5, the total has been bet down to 7.5 or 7.0 depending on the book.
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Mariners vs Yankees trend
The Yankees have hit the run line in 13 of their last 19 games (+10.00 Units / 45% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Yankees
Mariners vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Thursday, 5-23-2024 |
| First pitch: | 12:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | RSNW, YES |
| Mariners starting pitcher: | Luis Castillo (4-5, 3.28 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Luis Gil (5-1, 2.39 ERA) |
Mariners vs Yankees latest injuries
Mariners vs Yankees weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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