There are just five games on the MLB betting board for Monday, with the final game taking place on the West Coast as the San Diego Padres host the Miami Marlins.
The Padres opened as -211 home favorites as they begin a three-game set at Petco Park but that line has already shifted to -275.
Is there still betting value in backing the Friars? We let you know as we bring you our best free Marlins vs. Padres MLB picks and predictions for August 9, with the first pitch at 10:10 p.m. ET.
Marlins vs Padres game info
• Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
• Date: Monday, August 9, 2021
• Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Florida, Bally Sports San Diego
Marlins vs Padres odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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Marlins vs Padres betting preview
Starting pitchers
Joe Musgrove (7-7, 2.87 ERA): Musgrove has been throwing very well in his first season in San Diego, pitching to a 0.97 WHIP with an OBA of .195 in 20 starts. He's coming off back-to-back strong performances where he allowed a total of five hits and one run in 13 innings — against the A's and the Rockies.
Zach Thompson (2-4, 2.53 ERA): Thompson is putting together a solid rookie season for Miami, pitching to a 1.10 WHIP with an opponent batting average of .196 across nine starts. In his previous outing last Wednesday, the towering right-hander allowed three runs (two earned) in four innings against the Mets.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Marlins: Jorge Alfaro C (Questionable), Jazz Chisholm SS (Questionable), Jesús Sánchez RF (Out), Garrett Cooper 1B (Out), Jon Berti 2B (Out).
Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr. SS (Out), Jurickson Profar LF (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Padres are 30-13 in their last 43 home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Marlins vs. Padres.
Run line pick
The Marlins are coming off a three-game series at Coors Field where they were swept, leaving them just 16-37 in their last 53 games on the road. Miami has been among the worst hitting teams in the majors for years and currently ranks 27th in the majors with an OPS of .678.
The Friars are 11th in the majors with an OPS of .741. Although they are missing NL MVP favorite Fernando Tatis Jr. due to a shoulder injury, they have been hitting well without him, averaging 5.14 runs per game in seven contests since he went on the IL.
San Diego has a 64-49 record and the fourth-best win percentage in the NL. However, they play in the best division in baseball — which means they are 7.5 games behind the first-place Giants and four games behind the Dodgers, who have the lead in the Wild Card race.
The Marlins will give the ball to Zach Thompson and while he's been solid as a rookie, he doesn't have much experience and has surrendered at least three runs in three of his last five starts. San Diego starter Joe Musgrove is a bit more reliable with his body of work and recent strong play.
While the current moneyline price on San Diego seems a tad too steep for the home side, it's worth mentioning that the Padres' last seven wins have all been by multiple runs... and the Marlins' previous seven defeats have come by more than one run. Back the Friars on the run line.
PREDICTION: San Diego -1.5 (-112)
Over/Under pick
Although Petco Park is a pitcher-friendly stadium and both starters have an ERA below 3.00, there is reason to think that the Over/Under of 7.5 tonight might be a tad too low.
Despite Musgrove's strong play in recent weeks, the Over has cashed in seven of his last 10 starts and Over trends are abound for both sides.
The Marlins are 6-1 O/U in their last seven games overall and have cashed the Over in five straight contests on the road. Meanwhile, the Over is 14-6 in the last 20 games at Petco Park and is 8-1-2 in the previous 11 meetings between these teams in San Diego.
Oddsmakers might be underestimating the Marlins offense and over-estimating the effect of Petco Park. Take the Over.
PREDICTION: Over 7.5 (-105)
Marlins vs Padres betting card
- San Diego -1.5 (-112)
- Over 7.5 (-105)
Picks made on 8/9/2021 at 10:45 a.m. ET
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