The most star-studded roster in baseball will take on what’s starting to look like a team of destiny as the Los Angeles Dodgers face off against the New York Mets in the 2024 NLCS.
The Dodgers finally overcame their NLDS struggles in the new playoff format, overcoming a 2-1 deficit to overcome the San Diego Padres. Meanwhile, the Mets had to fight through the Milwaukee Brewers in the Wild Card round before defeating the Philadelphia Phillies in the NLDS, finishing off those series with dramatic homers by Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor.
Let’s take a look at how these teams stack up as we check the MLB odds and make some MLB picks for the upcoming best-of-seven series.
Mets vs Dodgers series odds
| Market | ||
|---|---|---|
 Mets (+150) |
To win |  Dodgers (-180) |
| Mets +1.5 games (-135) |
Handicap | Dodgers -1.5 games (+115) |
| Over 50.5 (-105) | Total runs | Under 50.5 (-115) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 10-12.
Mets vs Dodgers series preview
New York Mets breakdown
Strengths
Can we count Grimace and Latin music hits as strengths? Even if the answer is no, the New York Mets have plenty of on-field advantages over their opponents.
For one, New York might have the single deepest lineup in the majors, as it rolls out an entire starting nine that features players with a minimum of a .700 OPS. Yes, the attention has rightly been on Francisco Lindor, but this is a team filled with professional veteran hitters.
The Mets also enjoy depth in their starting rotation. Even without a clear ace — at least without a healthy Kodai Senga — Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, and Jose Quintana stack up reasonably well against anyone else in the majors. New York also has the option of going to David Peterson as a fifth starter if it needs another arm, though the Mets have been happy to deploy him as a lefty weapon out of the bullpen.
The pure number of lefties on the pitching staff will also count as a strength in this series. Along with Shohei Ohtani, other key Los Angeles Dodgers hitters like Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, and Gavin Lux also struggle against southpaws.
Weaknesses
The Mets have struggled to put together quality bullpen performances on a quality basis this season, as relievers finished with a 4.03 ERA in the regular season. As high-leverage arms, Jose Butto and Phil Maton have each endured rough outings against Milwaukee, and Maton also struggled in two appearances against Philadelphia during the NLDS.
The biggest question mark is Edwin Diaz, who despite finishing the year with a 3.52 ERA and recording 20 saves, has also blown seven saves and lost his job briefly in June. We’ve already seen the best and worst of Diaz in the postseason as well — closing out the NLDS in Game 4 but allowing three runs during a blown save in Game 2.
X-factor: Kodai Senga
For the Mets to go toe-to-toe with the Dodgers rotation, they’ll likely need a healthy Senga. The 31-year-old pitched for the first time in over two months against the Phillies, tossing two solid innings in Game 1 of the NLDS. If Senga can give the Mets two reasonable starts — lasting at least 4-5 frames each time — that would go a long way to helping New York’s cause.
Los Angeles Dodgers breakdown
Strengths
The top of the Los Angeles lineup is as good as any in the majors, with Ohtani, Freeman, and Mookie Betts headlining a lineup that can beat opponents from top to bottom. The Dodgers averaged 5.20 runs per game during the regular season, the most of any team still alive in the playoffs.
Los Angeles has also gotten a massive boost from its bullpen as of late. Against San Diego, Dodgers relievers combined to put up a 2.49 ERA in 21 1/3 innings of work, and didn’t give up a single run outside of a poor Game 2 showing.
Weaknesses
If the Dodgers have a weakness, it has been the consistency of their starting pitching. That’s not due to a lack of talent, but rather to injury concerns, which have sidelined Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Glasnow, Tony Gonsolin, and Gavin Stone. Yoshinobu Yamamoto also missed significant time due to injury this year, only coming back in September and never quite stretching himself out since then.
If Yamamoto can be at full strength for the NLCS, it would go a long way toward covering this area for Los Angeles. He had a terrible start in Game 1 against the Padres, but bounced back in a big way in Game 5, allowing just two hits over five innings of work.
X-factor: Freddie Freeman
Just how healthy will Freeman be in this series? Despite an injured ankle and general soreness, he managed to do his part against the Padres, going 4-for-14 and playing in four of the five games of the NLDS. If the former NL MVP can stay healthy, it will significantly bolster the Dodgers' lineup.
Mets vs Dodgers series best bet
Pick: Under 50.5 runs (-115 at DraftKings)
We just watched the Dodgers finish the NLDS by throwing 24 consecutive scoreless innings, while the Mets held a vaunted Phillies offense to just 2.75 runs per game in their series. Each team boasts plenty of solid starting pitching, even if their respective aces have some question marks after returning from injury-plagued seasons.
I've mentioned how New York's lefty-heavy staff matches up well against a Dodgers lineup that features some key hitters who aren't as effective against southpaws. Meanwhile, Los Angeles enters with a strong bullpen that will make life hard on the Mets in the latter half of games.
Citi Field has also never played well for hitters, and Dodger Stadium ranks average for offensive production. Add it all up, and I don’t see this as a series in which we’ll be seeing a lot of runs.
