The Toronto Blue Jays will look to play the spoiler in their series opener against the New York Mets tonight.
Toronto is all but mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, while New York is chasing down a Wild-Card berth in the NL. My top Mets vs. Blue Jays predictions and MLB picks are calling for both offenses to put runs on the board tonight.
Mets vs Blue Jays prediction
My best bet
Over 9.5 runs (+110 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
The Toronto Blue Jays are opting to use reliever Ryan Burr in an opener’s role Monday against the red-hot New York Mets. He’s maxed out with 35 pitches in a July 25 appearance and has only completed two full frames once all season. This'll be just his second start as an opener this year, with his last being a one-inning outing against the Los Angeles Angels on Aug. 22.
Blue Jays lefty Ryan Yarbrough followed Burr to the bump the last time he opened, so that’s in play again today. Either way, the Toronto bullpen will be tasked with a lot of innings against New York, and it’s been a tough go for the Blue Jays relievers this year.
Toronto sports a 26th-ranked 4.44 xFIP and 28th-ranked 4.79 ERA, and the Mets have been excellent against both right-handed and left-handed pitchers this season.
New York has a 10th-ranked .317 wOBA and ninth-ranked .318 OBP against right-handed arms for the season, and the Mets are averaging 4.59 runs per game with a league-high 10.1% barrel rate and third-ranked 42.8% hard-hit rate during their current 16-6 heater.
The Blue Jays are positioned to fare well at the dish tonight, too. Toronto ranks fourth in barrel% (9.7%) and 10th in hard-hit rate (39.6%) during the same stretch, and Toronto also sports a respectable .316 wOBA and .317 OBP for the season against righties.
New York sends Tylor Megill to the hill, and he’s been mediocre at best with an inflated 4.95 ERA alongside a run-of-the-mill 4.17 xFIP. The 29-year-old righty also has been roughed up on the road with a 6.38 ERA and .344 wOBA surrendered across four starts.
Finally, neither bullpen has been particularly efficient of late with the Mets sporting a middling 3.50 ERA and 3.98 xFIP, and the Jays checking out with similar 3.59 and 3.89 marks across the past 30 days.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBI (+162 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has an RBI in six of his past eight games while going 12-for-35 at the dish with three doubles and a home run. He’s up to 94 RBI for the campaign while sporting an elite .395 wOBA and .323 batting average against RHP.
Hitting at home has also been a smashing success for Guerrero, with his .355 BA second in baseball and .433 wOBA third.
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Mets vs Blue Jays odds
Mets vs Blue Jays live odds
Mets vs Blue Jays opening odds
- Moneyline: New York -115 | Toronto-105
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+145) | Toronto +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under: Over 9 (+100) | Under 9 (-130)
Mets vs Blue Jays moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The moneyline action has come in on the Mets, and there has been a notable move to the New York side across the board.
- Additionally, the PROLINE+ moneyline prices are largely in line with other shops, with bet365 hanging the Mets at -135 and the Blue Jays at +115.
- This is an outlier PROLINE+ total, though. The majority of sportsbooks have the number at 9.0.
- The 9.5 total takes away the potential for a push, but we’re also landing significantly better odds for the Over, which is another reason I backed the Over.
Mets vs Blue Jays trend
The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the game total Over in 35 of their last 54 games at home (+15.40 Units / 26% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Blue Jays.
Mets vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Center, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Monday, 9-9-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNY, Sportsnet |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Tylor Megill (3-5, 4.95 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Ryan Burr (0-1, 4.44 ERA) |
Mets vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Mets vs Blue Jays weather
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