A busy day of MLB betting action Tuesday features a matchup between the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves, as the NL East rivals begin a three-game set at Truist Park.
Charlie Morton, who has enjoyed success against the Mets this season, will get the ball for Atlanta while New York counters with rookie Tylor Megill. The Mets have lost three of their last four games and are big underdogs for the series opener.
Find out who we like in our free Mets vs. Braves picks and predictions on June 29.
Mets vs Braves game info
• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
• Date: Tuesday, June 29, 2021
• Time: 7:20 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports South, SNY
Mets vs Braves odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonAs of 4:15 p.m. ET today, Atlanta is a -175 favorite at TwinSpires Sportsbook, after opening a few cents shorter at -167. It's two-way moneyline action, with the Mets drawing 53 percent of tickets and the Braves 58 percent of dollars. The total is up to 9 from an 8.5 opener, although the Under is attracting 56 percent of tickets/54 percent of money.
Check out the full line movement for this gameBraves vs Mets betting preview
Starting pitchers
Tylor Megill (0-0, 4.15 ERA): The big 6-foot-7 righty will face the Braves again after getting them in his MLB debut last Wednesday. He went 4 1-3 innings, allowing two runs on three hits while walking two and punching out four. Megill missed all of 2020 due to COVID-19 shutting down the minor league season, was not a top Mets prospect coming into this season, and barely has any experience above A-ball, but he has performed well in the lower levels since getting drafted in 2018. The 25-year-old has missed bats at every stop and pitched to a 3.35 ERA in eight starts this year across Double-A and Triple-A prior to his promotion.
Charlie Morton (7-3, 3.68 ERA): Morton has gotten better as the season has gone on and put a rocky first month with the Braves behind him. He has a 2.28 ERA in four June starts, hasn't allowed a homer this month, and is coming off back-to-back seven-plus inning performances in which he didn't surrender a run. One of those was against the Mets, with Morton holding New York to one hit while fanning a season-high 11 in his last outing.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Mets: J.D. Davis OF (Out), Jonathan Villar 3B (Out), Jeurys Familia RP (Out), Brandon Nimmo OF (Probable).
Braves: Tucker Davidson RP (Out), Marcell Ozuna OF (Out), Travis d'Arnaud C (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 4-0-1 in Morton's last five starts as a favorite. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Braves.
Runline pick
Megill's second career start, unfortunately for him, once again comes against the Braves. Though he was solid in his MLB debut when he got Atlanta last week, the Braves have a powerful offense that can change the complexion of a game in a hurry with their ability to go deep. Megill was made aware of that, as he served up a two-run bomb to Ender Inciarte, but that accounted for the only runs he gave up in his first taste of the big leagues.
The Braves have been among the MLB leaders in home runs all season and trail only the San Francisco Giants in the NL. They have five players with double-digit homers and three of them — MVP contender Ronald Acuna Jr., Freddie Freeman, and Austin Riley — all hit righties well. If you're looking for Megill to capitalize against a team with a heavy platoon split, you won't find it here.
He deserves credit for managing this Braves lineup last time, but we wouldn't bank on it again, especially not at Truist Park — a great hitting environment where Atlanta rakes. The Braves have hit significantly better at home and enter this contest with a clear advantage on the mound.
Morton has been up and down in his first season with the Braves, but the veteran righty has excelled in back-to-back starts and handled the Mets with ease both times he has faced them this season. In addition to his 11-strikeout game versus the Mets in his last start, Morton spun six innings of one-run ball against them in May, allowing two hits and striking out eight.
We expect Morton to keep rolling against New York, which scores the second-fewest runs per game in baseball. The Braves are rightfully heavy favorites and the obvious play for this one but are a better bet on the runline at plus money. The Braves have won six of Morton's last seven starts, with five of those victories being by two-plus runs.
PREDICTION: Atlanta -1.5 (+125)
Over/Under pick
A league-low 3.11 ERA and difficulties scoring runs have been the perfect recipe to make the Mets one of the best Under plays in baseball. Only four teams have gone Under more consistently than New York.
While the Jacob deGrom-led rotation gets all the attention, the Mets' bullpen has been strong, too. The group is Top 10 in ERA and strikeout rate and will provide the rookie Megill with some strong support once his day is done.
Those Mets arms will also get an Atlanta team that, while powerful, has a lot of swing-and-miss tendencies and has been below-average offensively throughout June. Home runs will probably bite the Mets but the Braves haven't scored more than four runs in a game in any of their last 10 contests.
Morton, who has allowed one run to the Mets in 13 innings this season, is hot and does a good job at keeping the ball in the yard, so his chances of working deep into this game are high. We like this one to fall short of the 9.0 total.
PREDICTION: Under 9.0 (-115)
Mets vs Braves betting card
- Atlanta -1.5 (+125)
- Under 9.0 (-115)
Picks made on 6/29/2021 at 7:51 a.m. ET
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