The suddenly resurgent New York Mets offense will try to build on the momentum from a comeback win last night as they take on the Atlanta Braves in the second game of a four-game series tonight.
The Mets won the first game of the series 8-7 last night, but Atlanta is still a significant favorite tonight in the MLB odds.
Our MLB picks look at how these two offenses will perform against tonight’s pitchers in our Mets vs. Braves predictions for April 9.
Mets vs Braves prediction
My best bet
Over 9.5 (-106 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The New York Mets are finally starting to see their offense break out. New York didn’t have high expectations this season, but its lineup contains plenty of talent, and watching that group produce less than three runs per game was a severe disappointment, especially as a Mets rotation dealing with injuries has still managed to hold up its end of the bargain.
Even after scoring eight runs on Monday, the Mets still rank 26th in runs per game (3.30), but that number will come up. Francisco Lindor, Jeff McNeil, and Pete Alonso won’t all keep hitting under .200, Brandon Nimmo is coming off a two-homer performance, and Francisco Alvarez looks like a legitimate star in the making. This team will score more in the long run.
We don’t need to hope that the Atlanta Braves lineup will produce offense. The Braves lead the majors in scoring, averaging seven runs per game on the season, hitting .303 as a team with an .891 OPS.
Orlando Arcia, Matt Olson, Jarred Kelenic, and Marcell Ozuna are just a few of the Braves who are off to hot starts. Ronald Acuna Jr. is only hitting .222 so far, but that only shows that there’s even more upside to this offense than we’ve seen. This is a terrifying group that may be even better than the team that averaged 5.85 runs for the entire season in 2023.
Tonight’s pitching matchup shouldn’t slow down these two lineups, either. Reynaldo Lopez had a strong first start for Atlanta but has spent the bulk of his recent career as a reliever. Mets righty Adrian Houser gave up just one run in five innings in his Mets debut but has been a league-average starter for his career.
Given these factors, sportsbooks have set tonight’s Over/Under at 9.5 runs. That’s unlikely to be enough, as the Braves have scored nine or more runs alone in four games already this season. With the Mets offense waking up, they’ve now played to totals of 15 runs in two of their last three games, including last night’s showdown with Atlanta.
That trend should continue tonight against pitching that is mediocre at best. I’m taking the Over.
Mets vs Braves same-game parlay
Over 9.5
Braves moneyline
Ronald Acuna Jr. 1+ RBI
Along with my bet on the Over, I’m taking the Braves to bounce back and win tonight. Atlanta is the better team and should continue to beat the Mets on most nights, as it has for the last few years. I’ll round out our same-game parlay with a bet on Acuna to record at least one RBI, something he has already done four times in the young season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mets vs Braves odds
Mets vs Braves live odds
Mets vs Braves opening odds
- Run line: New York +1.5 (-125) | Atlanta -1.5 (+105)
- Moneyline: New York +160 | Atlanta -185
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-110) | Under 9.5 (-110)
Mets vs Braves spread and Over/Under analysis
- Atlanta opened tonight’s game as a -185 favorite. The consensus moneyline is now closer to Braves -190, with the Mets available at +170.
- The Braves are up a little more than half a unit on the moneyline this year. The Mets are down more than two units for bettors.
- Tonight’s Over/Under opened at 9.5 runs. That remains the consensus total, with -110 odds available on the Under and as good as -106 offered on the Over.
- The Under holds a 6-4 edge when the Mets play this year. The Over has gone 6-2 in Atlanta’s games.
Mets vs Braves trend
The Over is 6-2-1 in Atlanta’s last nine games. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Braves
Mets vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 4-9-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNY, BSSO |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Adrian Houser (0-0, 1.80 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Reynaldo Lopez (0-0, 1.50 ERA) |
Mets vs Braves Latest injuries
Mets vs Braves Weather
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