Mets vs Cubs Predictions, Picks, Odds: Chicago Knocks Carrasco Around

The Chicago Cubs have cooled off the red-hot New York Mets thanks to some fantastic starting pitching. Tonight, a familiar face makes his 2023 debut, as the Cubbies go for the sweep at Wrigley Field with The Professor — Kyle Hendricks.

The long-time Cubs player hasn’t pitched in nearly a year thanks to a shoulder injury, but he’s hoping to keep the trend of his teammate's strong starting performances rolling in the series finale vs. the Mets. New York counters Hendricks with a right hander of its own in Carlos Carrasco. So, the question is which crafty veteran has the baseball betting edge? 

Well, oddsmakers have the Cubs as slight home favorites. Can the Professor take NY to school in this National League matchup? I break down the MLB odds and bring you the best bet in my MLB picks for the Mets vs. Cubs. 

Mets vs Cubs odds

Mets vs Cubs predictions

Kyle Hendricks making his first start, and it being at Wrigley is the best story heading into this game, but the way the Chicago Cubs’ lineup has gelled this season might be the best story for the team as a whole at this point.

It’s been great to see Cody Bellinger find his swing again, Seiya Suzuki looks like the real deal, and guys like Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner, and Ian Happ bring the lineup balance. And overall, the numbers have been great, particularly vs. right-handed pitchers.

Chicago ranks ninth in batting average, 10th in OPS, and ninth in wRC+ when digging in against righties this season. It also ranks 10th in MLB in home runs per game, and tonight it gets a really juicy matchup against New York Mets’ starter Carlos Carrasco.

The right hander has had a tough go of things so far in 2023 and got roughed up in his first three starts. Carrasco then missed a month with an elbow injury. The numbers aren’t pretty. The RHP is pitching to a 7.09 expected ERA, surrendering a .538 expected slugging percentage to opponents, and striking out just 12.8% of the batters he has faced this season. All three of those rank in the Bottom 7% in the league.

Basically, he’s not missing bats, and he’s getting hit hard and often. Carrasco has given up more than a hit an inning this season (19 in 18 2/3 innings pitched). I expect him to go five innings in this matchup (he averages over 4 2/3 innings per start) and that means I really like him to go Over his hits allowed prop sitting at 4.5.

My best bet: Carrasco Over 4.5 hits allowed (-135)

Mets vs Cubs moneyline analysis

Chicago has been a slight home favorite in each of the first two games of this series, and the finale is no different with the Cubbies on the board in the -115 range. This is interesting considering that Hendricks is making his first start of the season. 

Luckily, Hendricks’ 2023 debut will come at home, where the Professor has taken opponents to school so often during his career. The right hander has a 3.08 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 113 career games at Wrigley. What Hendricks also has going for him is that he’s a control pitcher and won’t need to ramp up like a fireballer would.

Then there is the matchup with New York. I think a strategy for success would be just don't pitch to the red-hot Polar Bear, Pete Alonso. Because overall, the Mets don’t have great numbers when facing RHP. New York ranks 18th in batting average and OPS, and 14th in wRC+ when facing righties this season.

The Mets also do a fair share of their scoring via the long ball — ranking 14th in HR per game — and those could get knocked down tonight with the wind blowing in from center at 16-18 mph.

When it comes to the bullpens, Chicago’s relievers rank seventh in FIP while New York comes in at 24th. And with the Mets having to use 9 1/3 innings of relief to the Cubs' five, Chicago should have an edge there as well.

I would give a slight lean toward Chicago in Hendricks’ 2023 debut.

Mets vs Cubs Over/Under analysis

The total for this matchup has seen quite a bit of action. The number opened at 7.5 and has been bumped up to 8.5 as of Thursday afternoon. That might be high enough to consider looking at the Under.

As noted, New York leans on the long ball to do a good share of its scoring, and those could be hamstrung today due to the wind. Additionally, the Mets are scoring just 3.9 runs per game on the road when facing right-handed pitching.

And while five innings is probably best case scenario for Hendricks in his first start of the year, the Cubs bullpen is relatively well rested and has been one of the more effective units in the NL this season. The wind will also hamper the Cubs offense as well and the team has been averaging just 4.04 runs per game in the month of May.

Even though there are a couple of starters with question marks here, I think the number has ballooned just a bit too much to take the Over.

Mets vs Cubs game info

Starting pitchers

Carlos Carrasco (0-2, 8.68 ERA): Carrasco has battled injuries and his command so far in 2023. He missed about a month with elbow inflammation and has made just four starts, surrendering five or more earned runs in three of his four starts this season.

Kyle Hendricks (2022: 4-6, 4.80 ERA): Hendricks makes his first start in almost a calendar year after suffering a shoulder injury in 2022. But he's happy it's in the Friendly Confines where he has a career 3.08 ERA.

Latest injuries

Trend to know

The Mets are 1-8 in their last nine games vs. National League Central opponents. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Cubs

Weather

Pages related to this topic