The New York Mets scored 11 runs in Game 1 of their three-game series with the Chicago Cubs.
Strong winds and hot temps are in the forecast at the Friendly Confines, and the 12-run total on the betting boards should make things interesting this afternoon for home starter Jameson Taillon, where my Mets vs. Cubs prediction focuses.
Read on for my MLB picks for Saturday, June 22.
Mets vs Cubs prediction
My best bet
Jameson Taillon Under 4.5 strikeouts (+120 at FanDuel)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Today is one of those days when the New York Mets and Chicago Cubs hitters arrive at Wrigley Field and immediately walk onto the field to watch the pennants whip into the wind.
It’s also a day when starting pitchers with higher fly-ball rates and low strikeout rates, like Cubs starter Jameson Taillon, cringe; that’s because strong winds blowing out to center and high temps against hot sticks rarely lead to a good afternoon.
Taillon takes the bump today against a red-hot Mets offense that scored 11 runs on Friday night and 46 runs across their last five, and Taillon getting his usual six free outs might be difficult.
The 32-year-old righty has lost velocity on his four-seam fastball; it’s down 1.5 mph from one season ago, which forces Taillon to throw more sweepers to righties and more benders to lefties. Those pitches have earned him a shade over seven strikeouts at Wrigley, but he likely won’t have that much success striking out the Mets today.
The Mets bats have boomed across the past 14 days; they boast a .320 BABIP with a wRC+ of 131, and their overall 20% strikeout and 8.9% walk rates during that 14-day period are identical to their season averages against righties.
Finally, Taillon has failed to clear 4.5 strikeouts in seven of his past 10 starts. He particularly has trouble striking out righties at the Friendly Confines (5.47 per nine), and he’s going to see a minimum of five in this Mets lineup. Righties clock Taillon for a .299 batting average, and their collective .347 BABIP suggests these hitters have been unlucky. New York doesn’t strike out much against righty starters and will probably chase Taillon before he reaches five whiffs.
Mets vs Cubs same-game parlay (SGP)
Jameson Taillon Under 4.5 strikeouts
Jameson Taillon Over 1.5 walks
Harrison Bader Under 0.5 hits
Taillon not getting the whiffs is my best bet, but he’s also walked two or more in four of his last five home starts and meets a New York offense with an above-average walk rate (8.4%).
Mets OF Harrison Bader is riding the struggle bus. He’s gone hitless in his last three, boasts a 21% strikeout rate and 5.4% walk rate against righties, and is 2-15 lifetime against Taillon.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mets vs Cubs odds
Mets vs Cubs live odds
Mets vs Cubs opening odds
- Run line: New York + 1.5 (-175) | Chicago - 1.5 (+142)
- Moneyline: New York (-102) | Chicago (-118)
- Over/Under: Over 12 (-110) | Under 12 (-110)
Mets vs Cubs spread and Over/Under analysis
- Mets moneyline markets are as low as +100, but fierce back-and-forth trading has the Mets prices from -105 to +114.
- 54% of the bets and 22% of the cash at BetMGM is on the Cubs, with Chicago moneyline markets trading at -115 to -135.
- Over/Under markets opening 11.5 (-122) runs spiked to match the 12-run total across the industry. Over 12 runs trade from -108 to -110, while Under 12 markets have prices at -110 to -115.
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Mets vs Cubs trend
Taillon has failed to clear 4.5 strikeouts in seven of his last 10 starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Cubs
Mets vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Saturday, 6-22-2024 |
| First pitch: | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Tylor Megill (2-3, 3.52 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Jameson Taillon (3-3, 3.08 ERA) |
Mets vs Cubs latest injuries
Mets vs Cubs weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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