Mets vs Giants Predictions, Picks, Odds: Dicey Pitching Matchup Leads to Sunday Night Fireworks

Another round of Sunday Night Baseball will get going when the New York Mets and San Francisco Giants wrap up a four-game series tonight in the Bay. 

The Giants ensured they at least avoided the sweep with last night's win. They took care of business by a 7-4 scoreline in a game that saw San Fran put up four first-inning runs.

The win ended an extensive winning streak from the Mets, including New York winning the first two games of this series. Will the Giants earn the series split tonight?

Find out in our MLB picks and predictions for New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants. 

Mets vs Giants odds

Mets vs Giants predictions

The safest assumption for tonight is that we'll see runs scored and as such, that's where I'm headed with my best bet. 

A nice breeze will blow out to right-center field tonight and temperatures should be comfortable. Because of that, there should be no issues from a ball carry perspective.

I'm also a fan of the Over on Sunday Night Baseball. Of course, this is anecdotal, but players emphasize elevating their games in these nationally televised spots and that generally leads to big-time players stepping up and a nice boost in runs.

Let's get to the specifics now: Ross Stripling hits the mound for the San Francisco Giants, and he's been downright awful. 

His Baseball Savant page is a bit jarring, especially if you remember that he was once an impressive hurler. Stripling's problems are plentiful, but one of the biggest is his barrel rate. It sits in the Bottom 2% of all qualified pitchers this season.

That's a huge issue today. This New York Mets team can see its hitting quality go occasionally, but they've consistently barreled up balls.

Pete Alonso, Daniel Vogelbach, and Tommy Pham all grade out impressively and there's enough power collectively to take advantage of a big-time issue of Stripling. Over just 12 innings of baseball, he's given up 10 long balls. New York is tied for the fifth-best mark in home runs per game over its last three.

Quite frankly, there are plenty more negatives to point out about Striping but unfortunately, I don't have the space. However, I do have to note that, unlike some pitchers that get off to tough starts, there is no signal here that things could improve. Stripling has been lucky to post his numbers as indicated by 1.46 WHIP and league-low 8.95 expected ERA. 

Taking the mound for the Mets is Tylor Megill. He's been better than Stripling this season, but much like his counterpart, he's due for some negative regression. Megill has reached nearly the end of April with an ERA of precisely 3.00 while carrying an expected ERA closer to 6.00.

It's just not sustainable, but even if it continues here, the standard three earned runs through five innings would suffice enough to get this Over given Stripling's issues in this matchup. 

Both of these teams have hammered righties this season. Each of them sits in the Top 10 of wRC+ against righties, and both see a massive boost in power splits when they get a right-handed matchup.

I'm expecting that trend to continue tonight. I projected a double-digit total here of 10 at -110. Getting that total an entire run lower feels like a massive win. 

My best bet: Over 9 (-105 at bet365)

Mets vs Giants moneyline analysis

You have to like the Mets tonight, and I've made it fairly obvious why. There's a massive pitching edge here, even if the player taking the mound for New York isn't exactly dominant.

Stripling has been downright bad and it's tough to see him taking a step forward anytime soon. Opponents have slugged .818 against his most thrown pitch this season, the slider.

Additionally, it's produced a run value of +3 and that should be music to the ears of this New York team. Three players in this lineup have hit over .250 against the slider this season, including Pete Alonso's eye-popping .471 against it.

I'll happily grab the Mets on the first-five moneyline at -115 and see value in it up to -135.

Mets vs Giants Over/Under analysis

We're on the Over tonight. These pitchers have yet to produce much to make you believe they can hold their opponent to a quiet scoring night.

I also like the conditions in Oracle Park tonight, as I've previously mentioned. Expect the Giants to tee off against Stripling like almost every team has this season and on the other side, I expect Megill to give up just enough to finish the job.

Not only have the first three games of this series gone Over, but it's now 5-1 in the last six meetings between these two teams in San Francisco. It's attracting some excellent action, according to our splits page, and we're following that betting action tonight. 

Mets vs Giants game info

Mets vs Giants betting preview

Starting pitchers

Tylor Megill (3-1, 3.00 ERA) Megill is fortunate to have a 3-1 record and an ERA of 3.00 and a few things show us that: his 1.43 WHIP isn't ideal, nor is the expected ERA near 6.00 or the high walk rate. Megill gave up seven hits to the Dodgers his last time out but held them to just three earned runs. That game followed a similar pattern to some of his other starts. The walks haven't fully come back to bite him and the contact rate he's given up hasn't, either. At some point, there'll be some negative regression here; it's just a matter of when and how much. 

Ross Stripling (0-1, 7.30 ERA): I spoke a lot about his faults above; I don't need to go into much more detail. He was smacked by the Yankees for four earned runs in five innings in the opener and followed that up by surrendering four earned runs again to the Royals. You could say that Stripling has improved since those starts and while the Giants haven't seemed interested in letting him go deep in either subsequent start, they have been an improvement. He pitched just over two innings of scoreless ball in his last start against the Marlins. 

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The Over is 19-9-1 in the Mets' last 29 road games. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Giants

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