The New York Mets head south to play the Miami Marlins for a three-game set starting Friday night. New York is a precarious half-game ahead of the Atlanta Braves in the National League East, and taking care of the fourth-place Marlins will help cushion the lead.
The Marlins, however, are sending young phenom Edward Cabrera to the mound and the strikeout total is definitely a bet worth looking at.
Can New York put some distance between themselves and the Braves, or are the Marlins going to play spoiler?
Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Friday’s game between the Mets and Marlins.
Mets vs Marlins best odds
Mets vs Marlins picks and predictions
When I saw that Edward Cabrera’s total strikeouts was 5.5 and that the Over was +120, I thought there had to be a mistake. The 24-year-old is fresh off a seven-strikeout performance against the Atlanta Braves less than a week ago.
The second-year pitcher has been very productive with whiffs. In Cabrera’s last five games, he has had six or more strikeouts in four of them. The one appearance he didn’t he struck out five came against the best team in baseball, the Los Angeles Dodgers.
This season, Cabrera has pitched 49 innings and racked up 55 strikeouts. That’s an average of 1.12 Ks an inning. If he pitches to the sixth inning, he should be able to hit the Over.
Following a return from an elbow injury that kept him out half of June and all of July, Cabrera has pitched well, at one point going 22 innings without allowing a run.
The Mets might be able to bump Cabrera’s strikeout average up a bit, as they are averaging 9.4 a game. The Braves are first at a 9.6 clip, and Cabrera was able to get them to whiff seven times in five innings.
The last time Cabrera faced the Mets was in late September of last year. He went just three innings and fanned New York batters six times. He is a much better pitcher now. He is not relying on his four-seam fastball as much and has a wider variety of pitches
Instead of the four-seamer being his sole strikeout pitch, he now can utilize a slider, changeup, and curveball to get batters swinging. I like Cabrera to get Mets’ bats whiffing, and at +120, the value is definitely there.
My best bet: Edward Cabrera Over 5.5 strikeouts (+120 at DraftKings)
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Mets vs Marlins betting preview
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•Side analysis •Over/Under analysis •Starting pitchers •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Moneyline analysis
The New York Mets are fresh off a doubleheader sweep of the Pittsburgh Pirates on Wednesday and had yesterday off to rest up for the Miami Marlins. They come into this game as a -156 favorite to take down the Marlins, who are fetching +145 odds at most sportsbooks.
The Mets have dominated this series, going 10-4 overall, winners of five of the last six at LoanDepot Park. They are sending David Peterson to the mound and he has had two solid outings against them this season.
The first outing was June 20 and he shut them out for 5.1 innings while allowing six hits and striking out seven. The second appearance was a week later and this time he went seven innings, allowing two runs on four hits and striking out eight.
The Mets are 14-3 in their last 17 games against a starting pitcher with a WHIP less than 1.15 and are 5-2 in their last seven following a win. The Marlins are 3-17 in their last 20 games following a win and 0-4 in their last four after allowing five runs or more in their previous game.
Over/Under analysis
The total on the game is set at 8.5, and the Under is the play here.
Both starting pitchers have been stingy with runs. The Mets’ Peterson has allowed six runs in his last four games. In two of those games, he shut out the opposition.
Miami’s Edward Cabrera has been impressive, sans one game, since returning from injury in the first week of August. He has gone 33.1 innings in his last six starts and has allowed seven runs. His ERA for August was 1.91 and so far in September, it is 1.80.
The problem is his teammates haven’t been that productive at the plate. They did score six runs in a win against the Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday, but before that, had gone a stretch of 10 games where they scored three runs or less. In five of those games, they could only muster one run.
Despite great offensive numbers for the season, New York hasn’t been scoring as much recently. In their last 10 games, the Mets have scored three or fewer runs in six of them.
I think Cabrera will keep them in check, as this game hits the Under of 8.5.
Mets vs Marlins game info
• Location: LoanDepot Park, Miami, FL
• Date: Friday, September 9, 2022
• First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Florida
Starting pitchers
David Peterson (7-3, 3.32 ERA): The 27-year-old lefty has found a spot on the roster after bouncing between the majors and the minors. Peterson doesn’t have a regular spot in the rotation but when called upon, he has been dependable. His last outing, however, was a bit rough as the Phillies touched him for three runs in 5.1 innings. His three starts in August were much better. Peterson pitched 16 innings, allowing three runs on 15 hits and posting a 1.69 ERA for the month.
Edward Cabrera (4-2, 2.39 ERA): The 24-year-old right-hander has had injury issues all year but has been healthy for the last six weeks. In that time, he has pitched 28.1 innings, allowing seven runs, six of which came against the Los Angeles Dodgers. He had a streak of 22 scoreless innings and has since whittled his ERA from 3.45 to 2.39 on the season.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Betting trend to know
The Mets are 5-1 in the last six meetings in Miami. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Marlins
