The New York Mets travel to Camden Yards and open up a three-game set vs. the division-leading Baltimore Orioles. The O's sit as -160 home favorites in the MLB odds as Dean Kremer will duel lefty David Peterson, who is coming out of the bullpen and is not stretched out.
With the New York starter likely capped at a low pitch count and facing a very disciplined Baltimore lineup vs. lefties, is the smart money on Peterson’s Unders tonight?
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Mets vs. Orioles for Friday, August 4.
Mets vs Orioles odds
Mets vs Orioles predictions
With Max Scherzer moving on, it will be David Peterson taking the starting spot for the Mets, and he’ll be facing one of the best teams in baseball in the Orioles.
The lefty has made 11 starts on the year and has posted 6.46 ERA, with the Mets going 3-8 SU in those games. He threw just 20 pitches in his last outing back on July 30, and I’m not expecting a full leash at Camden Yards, where the temperature is 80 degrees with nine mph winds blowing out to left field.
Because of this, his Unders project very well. THE BAT is calling for 3.98 strikeouts, 4.24 hits, and 11.7 outs. There are no outs markets, but both his Under 4.5 Ks and Under 5.5 hits project nicely. With Baltimore striking out at the 21st-lowest rate vs. left-handers, I’m taking the Under 4.5 punchouts at -125 at bet365, and would play this to about -140.
There is a chance that Peterson goes four or fewer innings, and getting five strikeouts over just 12 or fewer outs isn’t happening tonight on the road vs. Baltimore. This is a pitcher who struggled to go four innings when in the regular rotation.
The market has been falling on this prop, and Pinnacle is sitting at -161 at the time of writing.
My best bet: David Peterson Under 4.5 strikeouts (-125)
Mets vs Orioles same-game parlay
Peterson Under 4.5 strikeouts
New York team total Under 4.5
Ryan McKenna Under 0.5 hits
The true odds here are +680 thanks to the small correlation between Ryan McKenna's hits and Peterson's strikeout props.
Peterson might only have 65 to 75 pitches in him today, as he hasn't started a game since July 8.
The Mets are missing bodies on offense tonight, and if Brandon Nimmo sits his third straight game, it's hard to get excited about this offense putting up five runs vs. Dean Kremer and an elite bullpen.
McKenna might only see two plate appearances today, as he likely won't hit a right-handed pitcher. With Peterson on a short leash, he could get pulled very early. In four of his last six starts, the right-handed hitter has recorded just two PAs.
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Mets vs Orioles moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Orioles opened as a -150 home favorite tonight in the series opener vs. the Mets, and have been bet up to as short as -170. It is a big pitching advantage for the Orioles as Peterson is filling in for Scherzer spot in the rotation and isn’t expected to get too deep tonight. Kremer has been serviceable for the first-place O’s, but he is also backed by a stronger bullpen.
The Baltimore bullpen ranks at the top of the leaderboard in terms of reliever WAR, while the Mets can be found much lower on the list at 29th. Baltimore has all its arms available tonight, and with neither starter projected to get 18 outs, this game will be decided by late pitching — if Peterson hasn’t already blown it by then. New York also traded away its closer in David Robertson.
Offensively, the O’s have the edge as well. New York leadoff hitter Brandon Nimmo has missed two straight games with a quad injury, and the losses of Matt Canha and Tommy Pham are worth something for an offense that has underachieved all season. Starling Marte is also dealing with migraines but is expected to be activated today.
This offense managed just two runs on five hits yesterday vs. the Royals, and if Peterson continues to give up runs as a starter (6.46 ERA over 11 starts), I don’t think the New York offense has enough talent to overcome a multi-run lead — especially late vs. this Baltimore bullpen.
I would prefer taking the Mets’ team total Under 4.5 at -140 (bet365) rather than the Baltimore moneyline at -160, and think there’s also an avenue where you can ladder the Mets’ team total down, as Under 3.5 is +115 and Under 2.5 is +215. I’ll be riding the TT Under 4.5 myself and have no play on the full game total of 9 that has seen a little movement to the Over.
Only the Rockies and Athletics have more losses on the road this year than the Mets at 24-35 SU.
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Trend to know
The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 95 games (+11.00 Units / 11% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Orioles
Mets vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Friday, August 4, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNY, MASN |
Starting pitchers
David Peterson (3-7, 5.92 ERA): Peterson is taking the rotation spot of Max Scherzer. He last pitched on July 30, where he threw just 20 pitches over two innings. He owns a 6.46 ERA as a starter over 11 turns and carries a 68/25 K:BB rate over 62-plus innings with nine home runs. He’s a groundball pitcher with a short leash who also struggles with keeping the ball in the yard. The Mets are 3-8 SU when he starts, and THE BAT is projecting 69 pitches, 11.7 outs, 3.98 strikeouts, and 2.12 earned runs.
Dean Kremer (10-4, 4.66 ERA): Kremer is making his 23rd start of the season and has a 111/35 K:BB rate over 119-plus innings with 23 home runs allowed and 125 hits. Over his last five starts, opponents are hitting just .191 vs. him, and he has a 29% CSW rate over those 28-plus innings. The right-hander has given up 14 home runs at home over 63 innings and averages 92 pitches per start. The Orioles are 16-6 SU when he starts, and THE BAT is projecting 94 pitches, 16.8 outs, 4.65 strikeouts, and 3.10 earned runs.
