The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets are set to face off for the first time in the postseason this afternoon at Citizens Bank Park. Zack Wheeler gets the ball for the Phils, while Kodai Senga is making a surprise return to toe the hill for New York.
I’ll be targeting Wheeler, Kyle Schwarber, and Brandon Nimmo in my MLB player props for October 5.
Be sure to also check out our Mets vs. Phillies predictions.
Mets vs Phillies NLDS Game 1 props
- Wheeler Over 17.5 outs (-169 at Caesars)
- Schwarber Over 1.5 H+R+RBI (+110 at DraftKings)
- Nimmo Over 1.5 H+r+RBI (+120 at DraftKings)
Picks made on 10-5 at 7:00 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Mets vs Phillies props
Prop bet #1: Zack Wheeler Over 17.5 outs
I’m starting out by laying a bit of juice on Zack Wheeler to pitch at least six frames. He was a horse for the Philadelphia Phillies all season long and will likely be the runner-up for the Cy Young.
Wheeler has eclipsed 17.5 outs in 11 straight starts, going at least seven innings (21 outs) in four of those outings. On the season, Wheeler pitched 18+ outs in 26 of 32 starts overall, including seven innings against the New York Mets just a few weeks ago on September 22.
While the Phillies have a fresh bullpen and some managers may tend to overmanage in the playoffs, Wheeler isn’t someone about to give Rob Thomson any worry.
The former Met went at least 18 outs in all four postseason starts last year and in his first four playoff starts the year prior. Only in the World Series has Wheeler failed to pitch past five innings in his playoff career.
Prop bet #2: Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 H+R+RBI
Kyle Schwarber is one of the most unique leadoff hitters in the league, but it works for the Phils. The slugger got his batting average up to .248 this season after a paltry .197 — while hitting 47 home runs — in 2023.
Schwarber hasn’t sacrificed much of his other stats, either. He scored 110 runs with 38 home runs and 104 RBI in 150 games this season, seeing his OPS go from .817 to .851.
The left-handed slugger went nuclear in the final month of the season, crushing 10 home runs with 22 RBI in 25 September games while batting .293 with a 1.013 OPS.
Schwarber recorded 2+ H+R+RBI in six of his final 10 games and 12 of his final 20, including four of seven games against the Mets. In fact, the slugger apparently likes to face his division rivals, as he’s had 2+ H+R+RBI in nine of his last 12 games against New York.
Prop bet #3: Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 H+R+RBI
Brandon Nimmo has become a key bat in the middle of the order for his club. He started the season in the leadoff spot and hit in the two-hole at times, but he’s moved throughout the lineup, including batting third twice in the Wild Card series.
Nimmo only hit .224 this season, so that may explain why we’re getting decent odds of +120 here, but he scored 88 runs while driving in 90. He got a hit in each of the Mets’ three games in Milwaukee, with a run in Games 1 and 3 and an RBI in Game 2 to go Over 1.5 HRR.
The outfielder has seen Wheeler well in his career, going 13-for-43 (.302) with two home runs, one triple, and three doubles against the RHP. He’s recorded 2+ HRR in two straight games and six of his last eight against the Phillies.
Nimmo is capable of hitting this mark in a variety of ways. He had 27 multi-hit games this season, including against the Phillies, and his spot in the lineup gives him opportunities to both drive in and score runs himself.
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