The New York Mets sure have a flair for the dramatic. They trailed from the first inning onward until they put forth another late offensive explosion, scoring five runs in the eighth en route to a 6-2 win.
I’m expecting a tighter affair in Game 2. I’ll be targeting Luis Severino and a pair of quality left-handed bats, Bryce Harper and Brandon Nimmo, in my MLB player props for October 6.
Mets vs Phillies NLDS Game 2 props
- Severino Under 15.5 outs (-130 at DraftKings)
- Harper Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-143 at BetMGM)
- Nimmo Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (+100 at DraftKings)
Picks made on 10-6 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Mets vs Phillies props
Prop bet #1: Luis Severino Under 15.5 outs
Luis Severino has been hit around quite a bit of late. He enters play having conceded 3+ earned runs in four consecutive starts, including twice against the Philadelphia Phillies.
The more a pitcher faces a team in a short period of time, the easier time they have adjusting and picking up on tendencies. The Phillies have enjoyed success against Severino twice in the past three weeks and no doubt feel good about what they can accomplish this time around.
Severino has pitched much worse on the road this season. He’s allowed three runs or more in 69% of his games, and his hit rate on this 15.5-out prop is 13% lower than at home.
It’s also worth noting Philadelphia’s offense is much more prolific on home soil. The Phillies own a .260 batting average and have smashed 80 home runs against righties at home this season. Both marks rank them Top 6 in the MLB.
After throwing up a dud in the series opener, the Phillies are positioned nicely to have a big response offensively in Game 2. They’re going to make it tough on Severino to last.
Prop bet #2: Bryce Harper Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
Bryce Harper is a good candidate to spearhead the Phillies attack in Game 2. His splits set up very favorably against Severino.
The veteran righty struggled against left-handed bats like Harper all year long. Lefties hit .269 and piled up 17 homers against Severino during the regular season. Those numbers are night and day to what Severino held righties to (.216 average, seven homers).
A dynamic left-handed bat of Harper’s caliber should be a prime beneficiary of the matchup with Severino.
The Phillies do not want to fall behind two games heading back to New York. They’ll be relying heavily on leaders like Harper to ensure that doesn’t happen.
Prop bet #3: Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
Brandon Nimmo is one of the players at the forefront of this Cinderella-like run from the New York Mets. As the games have gotten tighter and the stakes have risen, Nimmo has elevated his level of play.
He's cleared this line in six of the past seven games, stacking up 18 hits + runs + RBI in aggregate. He finds himself in another good matchup to build on his recent run of success. Nimmo’s batting average was noticeably higher against left-handed pitchers during the regular season.
He has a pretty good track record against Christopher Sanchez as well. Nimmo is hitting .308 against the lefty.
The Phillies are a team Nimmo has always enjoyed success against. Nimmo has recorded at least two H+R+R in seven of the last nine against Philadelphia and 30 of the past 40 dating back to 2022.
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