A hotly-contested weekend series will commence on Sunday Night Baseball when the New York Mets and Boston Red Sox battle in the rubber match in Boston.
Can Carlos Carrasco deliver New York a rare quality start, or will this team be overcome by the talented Brennan Bernardino?
Let’s break down Mets vs. Red Sox in our MLB picks and predictions below.
Mets vs Red Sox odds
Mets vs Red Sox predictions
Carlos Carrasco is having a rough go of it in 2023, but that’s nothing new. For the better part of five years, he’s had an expected ERA over 4.00. Over the last three seasons, his strikeout numbers have dwindled, and now his walk rate is up to a poor 10% this season.
It’s been the fastball that’s gotten Carrasco in trouble, considering hitters are .337 off of the pitch with a .585 expected slugging percentage. His changeup has actually been a pitch that’s worked very well for him, but the Boston Red Sox rank fifth in run value per 100 changeups. That has the potential to turn into a real problem for the New York Mets right-hander.
The Mets have done a good job of picking it up offensively, but they’re still a marginally above-average team at the dish by the numbers. Boston is eighth in wRC+ over the last two weeks with a 21.1% strikeout rate which constitutes as poor for Mets standards.
While this team has looked much better over the last couple of games there’s no denying that it’s at a disadvantage in the pitching department. Bernardino has been the stronger of the two arms and he has the benefit of pitching to a team with a 98 wRC+ against lefties.
My best bet: Red Sox moneyline (-145 at DraftKings)
Mets vs Red Sox same-game parlay
Red Sox ML (-145)
Carlos Carrasco Under 3.5 strikeouts (+115)
Masataka Yoshida to record 2+ total bases (-115)
Justin Turner to record 2+ total bases (-125)
Yes, we’re going to expand to four legs for this same-game parlay. The thing is, I can’t decide between Yoshida’s total bases or Turner’s, so I’ll simply include both.
Yoshida is one of the best fastball hitters around and leads the Red Sox in total run value against the pitch and has a whopping run value of three per 100 fastballs. This is the pitch which has let down Carrasco the most, and he’s been hit .429 over his last 15 games.
Turner is also red hot at the moment with a hit in all but one of his last 17 games. He’s hit .354 over that span and has been the Red Sox's best hitter against changeups. We touched on the fact that Carrasco’s thrived on getting swings and misses with that pitch.
Along those lines — with the Red Sox’s ability to crush changeups, I have no faith in Carrasco getting to four punchouts here.
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Mets vs Red Sox moneyline and Over/Under analysis
While Bernardino is in an advantageous spot here on Sunday night, he'll likely only pitch two innings at the most. The good news is that since the start of June, the Red Sox own the fifth-best bullpen in baseball judging by xFIP. That has me thinking the Under is the play, even with how poorly Carrasco has pitched.
Then again, the Mets’ bullpen ranks 23rd in xFIP since the start of June and will likely need a lot out of that group with a bad pitcher on the hill. Is Boston really going to hold the Mets at bay enough to make up for the fact that Carrasco is starting?
You can understand the dilemma here. I think if I’m asked for my final answer, I’d lean towards the Over. The Mets have been improving marginally on offense, particularly in this series.
Boston’s pitching staff has worked very hard over the course of two days with 1.5 games on Saturday. I think we should see some fireworks on Sunday Night Baseball.
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Trend to know
The Red Sox have cashed the moneyline in 47 of their last 86 games (+7.00 units / 7% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Red Sox
Mets vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Sunday, July 23, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Starting pitchers
Carlos Carrasco (3-3, 5.35 ERA): The veteran turned in his best start of the season a couple of weeks ago when he fired eight shutout innings against Arizona. He went out for his next start and allowed four runs over 4 2/3 innings against the White Sox. Inconsistency has been the name of the game for Carrasco.
Brennan Bernandino (1-0, 2.48 ERA): The lefty will be the first man out of the bullpen for the Red Sox, and he’s only allowed one earned run over his last six innings. He hasn’t worked more than two innings in a start this season, and he’ll be making his fourth of the year.
