The New York Yankees finally busted out of their slump with a sweep of the Kansas City Royals over the weekend and now they’ll take aim at the New York Mets in the second leg of the Subway Series.
Can Domingo German right the ship here against a struggling offense or will Justin Verlander and the visitors come away with the win?
Let’s break down the MLB odds for Mets vs. Yankees in our MLB picks and predictions.
Mets vs Yankees odds
Mets vs Yankees predictions
Justin Verlander is one of the most confusing pitchers in baseball right now. He’s really struggled all season long to produce his best stuff, and even with a 2.08 ERA over his last four starts he’s still walked 11 in 26 innings and struck out just 21.
The good news here is that Verlander’s expected batting average has gone from .240 over the last two months to just .167 this month. Walks have been his Achilles heel and he hasn’t struck too many out, but at least his catastrophic contact issues have subsided.
I hate both of these offenses. The Yankees own a 91 wRC+ in the last two weeks which is a number that can’t really be topped by many teams, but the Mets are one. They own an even worse 75 wRC+ in the last 14 days and join the Yankees with a strikeout rate of at least 23%. The Yankees have been so bad in that area with a 25.1% strikeout rate that they should be able to pull prime Verlander out of the Mets righty.
With that, I love the Under here. Domingo German’s 4.41 ERA in the month of July isn’t all that bad and against a team that is lifeless at the plate, he should be fine.
My best bet: Under 8.5 (-120 at FanDuel)
Mets vs Yankees same-game parlay
Under 8.5
Yankees ML
DJ LeMahieu to Get a Hit
The first leg of this parlay is already accounted for. German should profile well against a Mets team he knows and a team he has had some level of success against in the past. He’s been solid ever since allowing eight earned against the Seattle Mariners in June, pitching a perfect game and allowing just six runs over his last four outings.
The Yankees do have the better offense here. The Mets have been saved by the occasional home run but have really struggled to make contact all season long. They’re wildly undisciplined and should not be able to exploit a matchup with German like many other teams may be able to do. With that, I’m going to toss in Yankees moneyline with things starting to come around for the Bombers.
I’ll also add DJ LeMahieu to pick up a hit. Over his last 12 games, the Yankees' veteran infielder has been batting .318 with a hit in all but one game. He’s also 8-for-25 in his career against Verlander for a .320 average.
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Mets vs Yankees moneyline and Over/Under analysis
German has really struggled with walks lately, issuing six free passes over his last two games. That’s where the Mets should help him out, considering their walk rate is a measly 8.5%. This is a wildly undisciplined team at the plate and German is a guy who has been finding it in the strikeout department with 23 strikeouts in 16 1/3 innings this month.
The Mets’ low walk rate and .141 ISO over the last two weeks simply doesn’t compare to the Yankees’ 9.5% walk rate and .156 ISO. In a matchup between two pitchers who have struggled with walks and homers, I think you need to side with the team which can exploit that weakness. That’s what we have here in the Yankees.
So, I think the decision to side with the Yankees here is pretty easy. They’re the team with the stronger home run-to-fly ball ratio and they’re the team with the hotter offense at the moment. Getting them as home underdogs could be a steal.
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Trend to know
The New York Mets have hit the Under in 48 of their last 85 games (+11.50 Units / 12% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Yankees
Mets vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Tuesday, July 25, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS |
Starting pitchers
Justin Verlander (4-5, 3.47 ERA): The veteran has been better over his last seven starts with a 2.25 ERA and just two home runs against his line. He’s walked 13 in those 44 innings and struck out 37.
Domingo German (5-6, 4.52 ERA): German has struck out 18 batters over his last two starts, spanning 12 innings, but he’s walked six and allowed six runs. He’s three starts removed from a perfect game, but owns a 4.41 ERA in the month of July.
