Canada has their fate in their own hands and can reach the quarter-finals with a win today over Mexico. That might not be so easy with projected Mexican starter Jose Urquidy expected to get the ball.
The Canadians could also be without former NL MVP in Freddie Freeman, who exited during yesterday’s win over Columbia with a lower-body injury. It will be an uphill battle as a +230 underdog against elite pitching without its best bat. Canada will struggle to score runs today in a game that could easily come in on the Under.
Find out where my best betting picks lie in this WBC matchup between Mexico vs. Canada.
Mexico vs Canada odds: Moneyline, run line, Over/Under
| Mexico | Canada | |
|---|---|---|
| -290 | Moneyline | +225 |
| -2.5 (-130) | Run line | +2.5 (-110) |
| Over 10.5 (-125) | Total | Under 10.5 (-105) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of March 15, 2023.
Mexico vs Canada picks and predictions
The loss of Freddie Freeman (hamstring) makes this a very different lineup to face — especially vs. a right-hander in Jose Urquidy. The Canadians have plenty of left-handed bats, but their power is mostly on the right side with Tyler O'Neil, who hits lefties better.
They also struck out 14 times vs. Columbia’s weak pitching yesterday and went long stretches without stringing hits together. The strikeouts are concerning for this offense, as over the last two games (vs. USA, and Columbia), Canada batters have struck out at a 35% clip.
Today will be even tougher vs. an MLB talent in Urquidy. The last MLB pitcher they saw was Lance Lynn, who went five strong innings and gave up just one run. Urquidy has an MLB career ERA of 3.74 and has pitched in big games before, with 12 postseason appearances under his belt.
Urquidy will also pass the ball to a bullpen that was nearly perfect yesterday vs. Great Britain yesterday and has a very respectable 3.38 ERA through three games.
Without Freeman, the Canadians will struggle to string things together to create runs without his pop. O’Neil is still a threat but this is a team that struck out 14 times yesterday, is swinging and missing a ton, and is also hitting just .238 over its last two games.
The underdogs will want to keep this close but are in a tough spot vs. some elite starting pitching, a solid bullpen, and a defense that rivals that of the US.
I think this full-game total might be a little long which is giving even more value to Canada’s team total Under 3.5 at +100, which has already moved five points to the Under since opening.
My best bet: Canada team total Under 3.5 (+100 at bet365)
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Mexico vs Canada moneyline analysis
The Canadians showed they do have some decent arms in their 5-0 win over Columbia where their defense also turned four double plays. Manager Ernie Whitt didn’t lose any bullpen arms to the pitch limit, so the Canucks will have their best arms for a Mexican offense that managed just two runs on seven hits vs. Great Britain yesterday.
It was a far cry from the 11 runs Mexico put up on the USA and Nick Martinez the day before. It’s a loaded lineup with five MLB everyday players in it, but over these small tournament sample sizes, it doesn’t guarantee results.
Mexico is hitting .279 as a team, but plenty of that is coming from Rany Arozarena, who is hitting .417. Alex Verdugo (0.087), Rowdy Tellez (.287), Isaac Paredes (.231), and Luis Urias (.125) aren’t tearing the covering off the ball and the team is coming off a 7-for-30 performance vs. the weakest pitching in the pool.
Mexico has a big edge in starting pitching with Houston Astro right-hander Jose Urquidy, but the Canadians do have a ton of left-handed bats in the lineup which might help. But if Mexico goes left-handed heavy out of the pen, it could be trouble for the underdogs, who looked lost at the dish vs. Columbia's lefties.
Canada will send out lefty Rob Zastryzny who has 38-plus innings of big-league experience and tossed some innings in Spring Training with the Pirates before joining the national team. His fastball sits low-to-mid 90s and he mixes in a curveball and a changeup. Mexico’s lineup yesterday featured four left-handed batters.
It will be a big advantage for Mexcio, who sit as 2.5-run favorites. They have the bigger names and the better starting pitching, but Canada can keep this close with their great speed and defense.
Freeman will likely sit with a hamstring injury, which hurts this team offensively as they lack the power that Mexico has, but I’m seeing this as a low-scoring affair in which both teams can throw out their best arms in the last game of pool play. There is a ton on the line for both sides who are basically in must-win mode today.
This game is priced similarly to Mexico vs. Columbia, where Mexico lost 5-4. Canada is a better team than Columbia and closed at -150 yesterday vs. them. The value is on Canada on the run line.
Mexico vs Canada Over/Under analysis
Canada closed with a total of 9.5 yesterday vs. Columbia and opened with a total of 10.5 for this afternoon’s game. This total is leaning heavily to the Over and it wouldn’t surprise me if it hit 11, but it won’t be me getting on the Over.
Canada’s lineup is not built to stack runs. Yes, they put up 18 vs. Great Britain but today they face Urquidy, who has a career 3.74 ERA in the MLB. Urquidy will be on a 65-pitch limit so the Mexico bullpen will be needed, but even that group has a 3.38 ERA through 16 innings. A lack of Freeman in the middle of this order is also a huge advantage to the Under.
Mexico has some stars on offense but as I mentioned above, only Arozarena is really raking. And even if Zastryzny falters early, the Canadians could go with MLB starter Cal Quantril who will want to rebound after a disaster of a start vs. Great Britain.
Both teams have all hands on deck in terms of pitching and with runs at a premium and neither team playing for the tiebreaker, we could even some small ball.
Both teams are also loaded defensively.
Mexico vs Canada game info
| Location: | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Wednesday, March 15, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS2 |
Mexico vs Canada starting pitchers
Jose Urquidy: A well-known name in the MLB with the Houston Astros. The right-hander has a very impressive sub-4.00 ERA to begin his MLB career and has pitched in some massive games for the Astros. This will be his first action in the tournament.
Rob Zastryzny: A former second-round pick of the Cubs, Zastryzny is a 31-year-old lefty that has MLB experience and a respectable 4.66 ERA over 38-plus big-league innings. He's a fastball/curveball/change-up pitcher who can touch mid-90s. This will be his first game of the tournament.
