Nationals vs Blue Jays Predictions, Picks, Odds: Toronto Hammers Washington For Second Straight Game

The Toronto Blue Jays secured a much-needed win last night in their series opener against the visiting Washington Nationals but still trail a playoff spot by 2.5 games. Tonight, they’ll trust Jose Berrios on the mound while this banged-up Toronto lineup will face lefty MacKenzie Gore as a -200 home favorite with a total that has fallen to 8.0 after opening at 8.5.

With the offense showing up last night and the Jays having another substantial starting pitching matchup, should bettors be looking at the first five markets today in another must-win game for the North birds? 

Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Nationals vs. Blue Jays for Tuesday, August 29.

Nationals vs Blue Jays odds

Nationals vs Blue Jays predictions

The Blue Jays have a substantial advantage in the first five innings today with MacKenzie Gore getting capped on his innings while also pitching more than he ever has. Lefties are hitting .311 off of him on the year and it would surprise me to see him throw more than 90 pitches today. His walks and command could also be on display as the Jays took a very patient approach at the dish last night with their injured lineup and chased starter Josiah Gray after he recorded just six outs and issued four walks. 

There is some urgency in finally getting this offense going and sometimes injuries like the one to Matt Chapman can be the motivating factor. This is also a Toronto offense that — despite the lulls in production — ranks as a Top-7 team vs. left-handed pitching. The Jays should elevate Gore's pitch count early and THE BAT is projecting under 15 outs from the starter compared to Jose Berrios who projects for over 19 outs vs. a soft Washington lineup that sported some incredibly weak bats in the bottom of the order last night. 

Berrios has had an inconsistent August but was near perfect in five July starts where he posted a 1.85 ERA. Kevin Gausman had some issues early vs. the Nats last night but the offense bailed him out and it's easy to see that happening again today vs. Gore. 

SIA has the Jays F5 -0.5 at -112 where some books are as short as -135. The Toronto bullpen has been overworked of late with Hyun Jin Ryu going just 15 outs and Gausman the same last night. I trust Berrios vs. Gore more than backing the Toronto bullpen, which is gassed. 

My best bet: Blue Jays first five innings -0.5 (-112 at SIA)

Nationals vs Blue Jays same-game parlay

MacKenzie Gore Over 2.5 walks

Blue Jays first five -0.5

Blue Jays team total Over 4.5

+450 at bet365

The Jays drew six walks yesterday and could draw more vs. Gore, who struggles with free passes and projects for 2.4 but is paying +155 to get three or more, making it a great +EV play by itself. 

I'm adding the Jays' F5 -0.5  RL here as the starting pitching matchup advantage is substantial and the Jays hit left-handed pitching well. It's also taking out the Toronto bullpen that has been overworked over the last four days.

The Toronto team total Over 4.5 is my favorite play in this stack. Bettors are discounting this team thanks to Chapman's absence but this lineup has been getting production from George Springer, Brandon Belt, and Davis Schneider and could be hitting that long-awaited tipping point. Injuries have a weird way of motivating offenses and this one is being slightly discounted tonight as the total continues to fall. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Nationals vs Blue Jays moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Blue Jays may have lost Bo Bichette and Chapman to injury, but that didn’t stop the offense yesterday as the Jays piled on early, getting to starter Josiah Gray and knocking him out after just six outs. The Jays had some very patient at-bats and forced the Washington starter to throw 63 pitches over two frames, including four walks. 

That approach has a great chance of being repeated today vs. Gore, who has 53 walks over 127 innings and hasn’t thrown more than 89 pitches since July. It could be another busy day for a Washington bullpen that ate six innings between four relievers yesterday and ranks 26th in bullpen ERA on the season.

The losses of Chapman and Bichette aren’t ideal — the latter is still day-to-day and could return today — but with the recent play of call-ups Schneider (17-for-40 since being called up) and now SS Ernie Clement (6-for-12 with the Jays this year), there is a different look in the clubhouse that might be shaking up this slumbering offense. 

Springer seems more engaged with a .913 OPS over his last 15 games, including five stolen bases, Belt has an OPS north of .900 with nine longballs over his last 30 games (four home runs over his last seven contests), and the bottom half of the lineup always looks good with Whit Merrifield and Kevin Kiermaier. The loss of Chappy and possibly Bo could be the spark that gets this squad going and they have a great matchup to hit the team total Over 4.5 runs vs. Gore and a poor and overworked bullpen.

The Nats don't have a great offense but they can be a scrappy low-K% team that sometimes eats into the opposing starter’s pitch counts. Berrios is coming off a sub-2.00 ERA in July but has looked far more inconsistent in August. With Gausman going only 15 outs yesterday, the bullpen got more work and has been very busy over the last four days with the Jays chasing a Wild Card spot. 

The Jays offense is oddly the best thing to bet on today as I’d much prefer the TT Over 4.5 at -110 as opposed to the -1.5 Run Line at +105. They are being slightly undervalued thanks to Chapman and Bo being hurt but showed yesterday they can still produce without them.

Gore’s leash is getting shorter and he’s allowed at least five runs in six of his last 13 starts (5.12 ERA and a 5.33 FIP over that stretch), while this is still a Top-7 offense vs. left-handed pitching on the year. Berrios’ inconsistencies could also force the Jays offense to stay engaged. 

Looking at the moneyline and total, Toronto opened as a -195 favorite and has moved as short as -225 as of this morning. The total has also seen some money on the Under. It opened at 8.5 but has hit 8 pretty much across the board and could close leaning to the Under 8 if Bichette sits. 

Trend to know

The Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in six of their last eight games at home (+4.14 Units / 45% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Nationals vs. Blue Jays

Nationals vs Blue Jays game info

Starting pitchers

MacKenzie Gore (6-10, 4.38 ERA): Gore is making his 26th start of the season and enters with a 145:53 K:BB rate over 127 innings with a 40% ground ball rate and a 17.8% HR/FB. He is coming off a four-inning outing and has seen his pitch count reduced down the stretch as he hasn’t hit 90 pitches in four straight starts. The Nats are 9-16 SU when he starts and THE BAT is projecting 87 pitches 14.7 outs, 4.48 strikeouts, and 2.94 earned runs. 

Jose Berrios (9-9, 3.55 ERA): Berrios has made 26 starts this year and enters with a 144:44 K:BB rate over 152 innings with a 41% groundball rate and an 11.7% HR/FB. Over his four August starts, he has a 4.98 ERA and is coming off a five-run outing in Baltimore in his last game but posted a 1.84 ERA over five July starts. The Jays are 14-12 SU when he starts and THE BAT is projecting 102 pitches, 19.7 outs, 5.44 strikeouts, and 2.61 earned runs. 

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