The Washington Nationals begin a four-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on Monday night. MLB betting lines have the Phillies installed as slim -120 home favorites with the Over/Under installed at 9.5.
Here are our best free Nationals vs. Phillies picks and predictions for Monday, July 26, with the opening pitch scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET.
Nationals vs Phillies game info
• Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
• Date: Monday, July 26, 2021
• Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
• TV: MASN, NBCSP
Nationals vs Phillies odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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Nationals vs Phillies betting preview
Starting pitchers
Joe Ross (5-8, 4.02 ERA): Ross returns to Washington's rotation after missing three weeks with elbow discomfort. The right-hander has pitched to a 1.20 WHIP with an opponent batting average of .234 in 16 starts this season. His last outing came against the Dodgers on July 4, when he allowed seven hits and three runs in 6 2-3 innings of work.
Spencer Howard (0-2, 5.11 ERA): Howard is back in Philadelphia's rotation following an injury to Zach Eflin. The 24-year-old has spent time in the rotation, bullpen, and minor leagues this season and has pitched to a 1.46 WHIP through 24 2-3 innings. In his previous start last Wednesday he pitched three innings of shutout ball against the Yankees, where he allowed just one hit.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Nationals: Kyle Schwarber OF (Out), Starlin Castro 2B (Out), Yan Gomes C (Out).
Phillies: Roman Quinn OF (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 13-4 in the Phillies' last 17 games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Nationals vs. Phillies.
Moneyline pick
The Nationals are slumping right now, having lost four games in a row and sitting fourth in the NL East with a 45-53 record. And not only is one of their top hitters, Kyle Schwarber, still on the IL heading into this series... but so are their two best pitchers in Stephen Strasburg and Max Scherzer.
The Phillies haven't been great either, going 2-4 in their last six games, but their record of 49-49 is still good for second in the division, placing them just four games behind the Mets.
Joe Ross will toe the rubber for Washington and he has pitched to a 2.31 ERA and 0.95 WHIP through 39 innings since the start of June. And despite Schwarber being out of the lineup all July, the Nats have been mashing lately, ranking second in the majors with an OPS of .829 over the last 30 days.
The Phillies have some big hitters in their lineup but they are in the middle of the pack in pretty much every hitting metric — ranking 15th in both batting average and OPS and 13th in runs per game.
The Phillies will send young Spencer Howard to the mound in this contest. The second-year player pitched to a 5.92 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in six starts as a rookie last year and hasn't been much better this season, posting a 5.11 ERA with a 1.46 WHIP. He also hasn't logged more than four innings in any of his six starts. That's bad news for the Phillies with their bullpen ranking 23rd in the majors in ERA (4.73) and WHIP (1.41).
With the Nats holding the pitching edge and batting very well at the moment, back them as short road dogs.
PREDICTION: Washington (+100)
Over/Under pick
We mentioned the Phillies struggling relievers but Washington's bullpen hasn't been a whole lot better, pitching to a 4.48 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP. Although Ross looked very sharp in June , he hasn't pitched in 22 days — so rust could be an issue and he might be on a restricted pitch count.
The Phillies may be in the middle of the pack offensively on the year but one place they have excelled recently is hitting with runners in scoring position — and as a result they are plating 5.33 runs per game over their previous 21 contests.
Washington has been even more productive at the dish lately, led by All-Stars Juan Soto and Trea Turner. The Nats are averaging 5.78 runs per game over their last 23 contests and Soto is batting .400 while driving in 13 runs over the last 15 days.
With questionable pitching on both sides, and Philadelphia going 13-4 O/U in its last 17 games, take the Over tonight.
PREDICTION: Over 9.5 (-102)
Nationals vs Phillies betting card
- Washington ML (+100)
- Over 9.5 (-102)
Picks made on 7/26/2021 at 8:35 a.m. ET
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