To call this week’s four-game set against the American League East-leading Baltimore Orioles an important one for the Toronto Blue Jays. would be an understatement.
The Blue Jays have climbed to within 5.5 games of the first-place Orioles but their struggles against AL East opponents this season have been well documented. Baltimore has been no exception, taking five of the first six meetings between the two rivals this season.
Despite this, the Blue Jays will be moderate home favorites for the opener of this important series as they hand the ball to reliable right-hander Chris Bassitt, while the Orioles counter with a veteran of their own in Kyle Gibson.
I break down the MLB odds and bring you my best bet, plus a same-game parlay in MLB pick and predictions Orioles vs. Blue Jays.
Orioles vs Blue Jays odds
Orioles vs Blue Jays predictions
The Toronto Blue Jays made their first move prior to tomorrow’s trade deadline, acquiring hard-throwing Jordan Hicks from the St. Louis Cardinals to sure up an already solid bullpen, but one that could use some reinforcement with Jordan Romano dealing with a back injury.
But it’s the Baltimore Orioles who could be one of the most interesting teams heading into the deadline. The team is young and exciting with an electric lineup and a dominating bullpen, but the one hole they need to address is starting pitching.
It’s just hard to see how successful the O’s can be if they continue to roll out the likes of Kyle Gibson, Kyle Bradish and Dean Kremer. What they do have is a treasure trove of talent in their farm system to move for some big arms, but tonight, they’ll rely on Gibson.
The veteran right-hander was able to give the Blue Jays some problems when they last met back on May 19, limiting them to one run on five hits but I think we could see a return to the mean tonight.
Gibson could be categorized as solid at best. The 36-year-old right-hander is pitching to a 4.59 expected ERA. He is also surrendering a .264 expected batting average and a .425 expected slugging percentage which both rank in the Bottom 33% of the league. Plus, Gibson is not striking out a ton of batters with a K-rate of 19.1%.
Meanwhile, the Blue Jays bats seem to be coming around. Bo Bichette seems to busting out of his slump, and even Alejandro Kirk is getting his timing back. Overall, Toronto ranks fourth in batting average, ninth in OPS, and seventh in wRC+.
Countering Gibson is reliable right-hander Chris Bassitt. The 34-year-old’s season has been a bit of a roller coaster, which included a rough outing against the O’s earlier in the year, but he’s at a high point at the moment. Bassitt is pitching to a 2.73 ERA and a 3.31 FIP while limiting opponents to .679 OPS.
And while Baltimore boasts a strong lineup, the overall numbers look a little average. The O’s rank 17th in batting average, and 16th in OPS and wRC+ when facing right-handed pitching this season.
If Bassitt can get through the first inning without giving up a run, I like the Blue Jays chances of scoring first in this one.
My best bet: Blue Jays to score first (+115 at SPORTS INTERACTION)
Orioles vs Blue Jays same-game parlay
Blue Jays score first
Bichette 2+ hits
Gibson 2+ walks
My theme with today’s same game parlay will be that the O’s need to improve that starting rotation. So, as always, we start with our best bet which is the Blue Jays to score first.
Next, let’s add Bo Bichette to grab two or more hits tonight. It appears that the Blue Jays shortstop has busted out of his mini-slump the only way he knows how – with a ton of hits. Bichette has racked up 12 hits in his last 24 at-bats and has recorded a multi-game in four of his last five games. When Bo gets rolling there aren’t too many players more profitable.
And let’s close this SGP out by adding Gibson to record 2+ walks. Gibson’s walk rate is OK, but he’s an innings eater and that means he has surrendered two or more walks in 14 of his last 20 starts.
If all three of these plays hit we walk away with a +400 payday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Orioles vs Blue Jays moneyline and Over/Under analysis
This AL East matchup has seen some interesting line movement. The Blue Jays opened as -135 home favorites and then were bet up to the -150 range. However, since then it’s the Orioles who have seen the action bringing the line back to Toronto -130, and at that price I think there is some value with the home team.
While Bassitt does have the occasional blow-up, he is the more consistent of the two starters. I would give the Blue Jays the slight edge when it comes to the lineups, particularly with the injuries the Orioles are dealing with. And with the addition of Hicks, the Jays bullpen isn’t too far behind what the O’s bring to the table.
The total hit the board at 9 and that’s where it remains as of Monday afternoon. With two excellent bullpens, I am a little wary of the Over on the full-game total, but I don’t hate the Over 5 in the first five innings considering the starters and lineups involved in tonight’s matchup.
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Trend to know
The Orioles have hit the Over on the game total in 28 of their last 52 away games for +7.35 units. Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Blue Jays
Orioles vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Monday, July 31, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
Starting pitchers
Kyle Gibson (9-6, 4.68 ERA): July has been one of Gibson's better months. He's made four road starts this month, each last at least six innings and allowing four or fewer runs.
Chris Bassitt (10-5, 3.91 ERA): Bassitt has been one of the American League's most reliable starters, recording a quality start in 14 of his last 21 starts.
