The Toronto Blue Jays host the Baltimore Orioles in MLB betting action on Saturday afternoon. The Jays took the first contest in this three-game set last night and will look to keep their position atop the Wild Card race while the O's try to close the gap.
Here are my best free Orioles vs. Blue Jays MLB picks and predictions for September 17.
Orioles vs Blue Jays best odds
Orioles vs Blue Jays picks and predictions
Orioles starter Kyle Bradish has been getting cooked by the Jays all season, allowing at least three earned runs in all four of his starts and pitching to a 7.27 ERA with a .356 OBA through 17 1-3 innings.
One reason for that is his significant reverse platoon split, with the rookie righty allowing right-handed hitters to slash .307/.367/.517. Toronto's lineup is filled with right-handed bats including superstar slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the red-hot Bo Bichette.
Bradish has struggled with his command and control and has been getting hit hard all season. That's bad news against a Toronto squad that's first in the majors in both hard-hit rate and average exit velocity.
Add in Baltimore's weak outfield defense (third-worst on the MLB schedule today according to EV Analytics) and a hitter-friendly Rogers Centre and I'm taking the Over 2.5 on the Jays team total in the first five innings.
My best bet: Blue Jays first five team total Over 2.5 ( +105 at DraftKings)
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Orioles vs Blue Jays betting preview
Jump to:
•Side analysis •Over/Under analysis •Starting pitchers •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Moneyline analysis
The Blue Jays beat the Orioles 6-3 last night and have won 12 of their last 16 games to take the lead atop the AL Wild Card race. The O's are 4-7 in their last 11 and are now 4.5 games behind the Rays for the final Wild Card spot.
The Jays boast one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball and rank fourth in the majors with an OPS of .753 with that number bumping up to .773 this month. The Orioles have an OPS of .699 this month and they rank 21st in OPS (.693) over the entire season.
Each side is sending a struggling starter to the mound tonight in Bradish and Jose Berrios. Both pitchers have ERA numbers above 5.00 (5.01 for Bradish and 5.07 for Berrios) and OBA numbers above .280 (.281 for Bradish and .283 for Berrios).
Berrios has a decent track record against the O's, allowing 23 hits and 10 runs (seven earned) in 26 2-3 innings against them since the start of the 2021 season. On the other hand, Bradish has been brutal against the Jays, surrendering 26 hits and 14 earned runs in 17 1-3 innings through four starts this year.
When it comes to the bullpens, the Orioles have an edge in ERA (3.24 to Toronto's 3.73) but their WHIP (1.21) and OBA (.235 to .236) numbers are virtually identical. Jays relievers have also stepped up during the second half of the season, ranking fifth in the majors with a 3.05 ERA since the All-Star break.
Over/Under analysis
These AL East rivals have gone 7-2-2 to the Over in their last 11 meetings in Toronto and with two subpar pitchers on the mound the Over 8.5 might be tempting for bettors.
Both starters have been getting hit very hard this season with Bradish and Berrios ranking in the bottom 15th percentile of all pitchers when it comes to hard-hit rate and average exit velocity.
The Jays lead the majors in both hard-hit rate and average exit velocity. Although the Orioles are a middle-of-the-pack team in both of those stats, they're ninth in the majors in barrel rate and should have some success against Berrios, who is in the bottom seventh percentile of pitchers in barrel rate.
The O's are also second in the majors in average launch angle which means that they'll test a Toronto outfield defense that is the second-worst on the slate today according to EV analytics.
Orioles vs Blue Jays game info
• Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
• Date: Saturday, September 17, 2022
• First pitch: 3:07 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet, MASN
Starting pitchers
Kyle Bradish (3-6, 5.01 ERA): Bradish has pitched to a 1.44 WHIP with an OBA of .281 in 19 starts this season. The rookie has been sharp lately pitching to a 1.44 ERA with a 0.84 WHIP in his last four starts. However, his one poor start during that span came against the Jays last Tuesday and he has struggled against them all season.
Jose Berrios (10-5, 5.07 ERA): An All-Star with the Twins in 2018 and 2019, Berrios has regressed in his first full season with the Jays pitching to a 4.68 FIP with a 1.38 WHIP and a .283 OBA across 28 starts. The right-hander has been up-and-down this year but is coming off a solid performance against the Rays where he allowed two runs (one earned) through 6 1-3 innings.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Betting trend to know
The Jays are 5-1 in the last six meetings between these AL East foes. Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Blue Jays
