The Baltimore Orioles have thrived as underdogs this season and have been the most profitable team in baseball — nearly double that of the next best team. Tonight, they head into a series final vs. the Cleveland Guardians as +160 dogs but I’m expecting the Baltimore bats to stay cold.
Shane Bieber is back to his Cy Young form and there are more than a couple of indicators showing me that he’ll be pitching into the seventh inning tonight. Find out where my best bet lies in my free MLB picks and predictions for Orioles vs. Guardians.
Orioles vs Guardians best odds
Orioles vs Guardians picks and predictions
My best bet: Shane Bieber Over 18.5 total outs (+125 at bet365)
Shane Bieber has been pitching into the seventh inning regularly of late. The 2020 Cy Young winner has recorded at least 19 outs in four straight games and in six of his last eight. He’s averaging roughly 14 pitches an inning and in his last 10 games where the righty has gone Over 18.5 outs, he’s done so while throwing under 100 pitches nine times. The man is efficient and has a 2.28 ERA over his last eight starts.
Bieber might even have a longer leash tonight thanks to Triston McKenzie going just five innings and Cleveland using four solid middle-relievers last night in the 4-0 loss. THE BAT has him projected for 103 pitches and 19.7 total outs.
Shane Bieber's first 104 career starts: 3.25 ERA, 782 Ks
— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) August 27, 2022
Who else has started at least 104 MLB games and hit or bettered both of those marks? Tim Lincecum. That's it. https://t.co/kkWdX5ylNr
The Baltimore lineup isn’t a big threat, either.
The Orioles didn’t dominate the plate last night and scored a run on a walk, a solo homer, and a two-out home run off the Cleveland B-bullpen. Super prospect Gunnar Henderson adds some pop to this Baltimore lineup but this is still a Bottom-10 run-producing offense that relies more on its bullpen than it does with its bats. Baltimore’s plus-14 run differential is by far the worst number of all the teams in the playoff race.
Aiding Bieber will be Progressive Field, which has relatively low temperatures (mid-70s) and wind blowing straight in from center field in the forecast. The park is one of the best pitcher-friendly parks on the small Thursday slate.
Bieber has been efficient and his command is helping him get deep consistently. Baltimore is a great matchup and at +125 for the right-hander to record at least 19 outs, I’m fully on board.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for the 2022 MLB season, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can bet $5 and get $150 in free bets! Sign Up Now
B) New users can get two risk-free bets up to $2,000 at PointsBet! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only
Orioles vs Guardians betting preview
Jump to:
•Side analysis •Over/Under analysis •Starting pitchers •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Moneyline analysis
The Orioles have won over 28 units (betting to win a unit each game) as they are constantly being undervalued and comfortable playing in that role with a 68-61 record and a plus-14 run differential. Bettors have moved this opening line from Guardians -190 to -180 but I can’t see it going much longer.
The Orioles are not winning games by many runs as their run-differential shows and rely heavily on one of the league’s best bullpens. The Guardians offense isn’t much better (19th in runs per game compared to Baltimore at 20), but they strike out at the lowest rate in baseball and put plenty of balls in play, which will be helpful today vs. Kyle Bradish.
The Guardians have a huge advantage in today’s starting pitching matchup. Kyle Bradish throws his fastball (that has next to zero horizontal run) over 50% of the time but opponents are hitting .357 off of it. Opposing batters aren’t just hitting Bradish for average, they are crushing the ball as the Baltimore starter has an average exit velocity of 91.3 mph, which is in the Bottom 2% of baseball.
On the other side, the light-hitting Orioles have to face a former Cy Young winner who is dominating right now and will likely have a long leash today thanks to Cleveland digging into the bullpen yesterday.
Last night’s +160 Baltimore line might have been off as the pitching matchup between Jordan Lyles and Triston McKenzie wasn’t as one-sided as tonight’s. I’d lean on the Orioles as +160 is a great price in a projected low-scoring game but there are better spots to hit this game.
Over/Under analysis
The total opened at 7.5 and was -120 to the Under at most books. Bettors have brought this up slightly but the total still leans to the Under. The total has closed at 8 in the series’ first two meetings while both teams have been profitable to the Under on the season with a combined 113-131-13 O/U mark.
Thanks to Bradish getting hit hard and giving up 15 homers over 80 innings, the Baltimore starter is 10-5 to the Over despite his team being one of the best Under teams in baseball. Bradish is the hardest part of this total to handicap as he's coming off a dominating performance over the Astros but doesn’t project as a front-end starter as a former fourth-round pick with a fastball that gets hit hard when he can locate it.
Bieber looks to be back to his elite self and is the main reason why the total is the lowest it has been in the series. Baltimore’s bullpen also has the fourth-best ERA in baseball while the Guardians are right behind them in fifth place. Runs will be tough to come by in the later innings tonight.
Also making me lean on the Under is both teams' run production. Each club sits in the Bottom 11 in runs scored per game and with the pitcher-friendly conditions at the park today, I’m struggling to see where two-way scoring is coming from. The first two games of the series have produced just 10 total runs while the Guardians have scored more than five runs just once over their last 10 games and the Orioles have failed to top five runs in 10 straight.
Orioles vs Guardians game info
• Location: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
• Date: Thursday, September 1, 2022
• First pitch: 6:10 p.m. ET
• TV: MASN, Bally Sports Great Lakes
Starting pitchers
Kyle Bradish (2-5, 5.63 ERA): Bradish is coming off an electric eight-inning, two-hit, shutout performance vs. the Astros in Houston. He has a 3.20 ERA over his last six starts and hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of those games. The rookie is flirting with 100 pitches these days but throws his fastball at over 50% and that offering has a .357 batting average against. Bradish is also one of the hardest-hit pitchers in baseball and sits in the Bottom 2% of the league in average exit velocity. No current Guardian batter has seen Bradish in a game while the Orioles are 10-6 when Bradish pitches.
Shane Bieber (8-7, 3.02 ERA): Bieber has been a rock for the Guardians over his last eight starts where he's gone at least six innings and has allowed two runs or fewer in all but one of those starts — good for a 2.28 ERA. The former Cy Young winner has seen the O's once this year and went seven innings, allowing two runs while striking out a season-high 11 batters. Opponents have a .219 batting average vs. Bieber across nine home games this season.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 7-0 in the Orioles’ last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Guardians
