Every win is crucial for the Baltimore Orioles as they continue to jockey with the New York Yankees for the AL East crown.
Looking to take the rubber match against the Boston Red Sox, the Orioles will put the ball in the hands of Dean Kremer, who my Orioles vs. Red Sox predictions favor thanks in part to his strong performance on the road this season.
Let’s examine further with my Wednesday, September 11 MLB picks.
Orioles vs Red Sox prediction
My best bet
Dean Kremer Under 5.5 hits allowed (-130 at Pinnacle)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Dean Kremer has been a machine when it comes to suppressing hits. He’s allowed five hits or fewer in 14 of 21 starts this season, good for a remarkably strong 67% hit rate.
Kremer’s numbers are even better away from Oriole Park. He’s gone under this total in eight of 11 road starts (73%) and has averaged just 3.8 hits against. Kremer isn’t just going under the number consistently – he’s doing it with room to spare.
The Baltimore Orioles right-hander finds himself in another sneaky good spot to limit hits against the Boston Red Sox.
Boston is hitting just .213 against right-handed pitchers over the past two weeks. Only the Los Angeles Angels and San Francisco Giants have fared worse in these matchups over that time.
Naturally, opposing starters have consistently gone Under their hits allowed number vs. the Red Sox of late.
Seven of the past nine righties they’ve faced have conceded five hits or fewer. The lone exceptions were Chris Flexen and Luis Severino, both of whom lost on the hook while combining to pitch 13 innings.
Another aspect I like about this Under is that Kremer throws balls at an above average rate and has a walk line of 2.5. He generally wastes a healthy chunk of pitches, which works his pitch count up and provides fewer plate appearances for opposing batters to string hits together.
Orioles vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Dean Kremer Under 5.5 hits allowed
Gunnar Henderson Over 0.5 runs
Red Sox TT Under 9.5
Win or lose, I expect the Orioles to be competitive and have some measure of success on the mound and at the plate.
We’re getting involved on the pitching side by trusting Kremer to limit hits while backing superstar Gunnar Henderson to score a run in my favorite point of attack.
Henderson’s been lights-out against right-handed pitchers on the season, hitting a team-best .294. He also draws walks at a healthy rate so he constantly finds himself on base.
Back at the top of the lineup, Henderson is in a prime position in the lineup to pile up the runs. He once again has the likes of Anthony Santander and Adley Rutschman behind him to cash in when he gets on base.
I like the idea of adding the Red Sox to score nine runs or fewer to increase the payout and make the parlay boost eligible on bet365.
The Red Sox have scored nine runs or fewer in 94% of their games this season. If Kremer can limit the hits, I have a hard time seeing the Red Sox putting forth a ceiling performance offensively.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Orioles vs Red Sox odds
Orioles vs Red Sox live odds
Orioles vs Red Sox opening odds
- Moneyline: Baltimore +100 | Boston -120
- Run line: Baltimore +1.5 (-185) | Boston -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-105) | Under 9.5 (-115)
Orioles vs Red Sox moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Red Sox opened as -120 favorites and currently sit at -135 at Pinnacle.
- The total has seen some fluctuation but sits in a similar position to where it opened. Pinnacle hung -114 for Under 9.5 runs on Tuesday night. Taking that position now comes attached with a -118 price tag.
- The Orioles have covered the Run Line in 75 of their last 137 games (+18.50 Units / 11% ROI).
- The Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 20 games (+10.00 Units / 45% ROI).
Orioles vs Red Sox trend
Gunnar Henderson has scored a run in six of his past eight games, totalling nine over that span. Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Red Sox.
Orioles vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 9-11-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MASN, NESN |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Dean Kremer (7-9, 4.27 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Nick Pivetta (5-10, 4.38 ERA) |
Orioles vs Red Sox latest injuries
Orioles vs Red Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
