The Yankees are reeling after a tough series loss to the Cardinals over the weekend and will now welcome a huge AL East foe to town in the form of the Baltimore Orioles.
Can we expect fireworks on the eve of the Fourth of July? Find out in our MLB betting picks below.
Orioles vs Yankees odds
Orioles vs Yankees predictions
The last time Tyler Wells came to Yankee Stadium, I took the Over.
He’s an extreme fly ball pitcher whose fly ball rate is around 14 points higher than the league average, and the New York Yankees have one of the best home run-to-fly ball ratios in the league.
Well, he wound up allowing three home runs in that start and five runs in total. The Over cashed then and I'm going back to it tonight.
Yankee Stadium ranks third in park factor for home runs according to Statcast and the Yankees put the ball in the air quite a bit.
Their starting pitcher on Monday, Domingo German, is also a fly ball pitcher like Wells albeit not to that extreme.
With the ball expected to leave the yard a lot, I think the Over is the best play on the board.
My best bet: Over 8.5 (-114 at FanDuel)
Orioles vs Yankees same-game parlay
Over 8.5 (-114)
Harrison Bader to hit a home run (+470)
Tyler Wells Under 5.5 strikeouts (-118)
So, we’re all in on a high-scoring game here, which leads me to these two props that complement the Over.
The first is Harrison Bader to homer. No Yankees hitter puts the ball in the air more often than Bader, who hits 51.8% of all his ball back into play in the air, and we touched on the fly ball factor earlier. There will be home runs hit tonight and Bader has as good of a chance as anyone.
Next, I love shorting Wells. Not only do I think he’s going to be in for a rough outing and therefore a short one, I love the way the Yankees are approaching their plate appearances right now.
This is a team that was struggling with strikeouts and walks but has since posted an 18.1% strikeout rate over the last two weeks. That's the best mark in the league during that time.
Wells isn’t even a supreme strikeout arm, he’s merely an above-average one. His rate should take a dive here.
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Orioles vs Yankees moneyline and Over/Under analysis
I don’t mean to lean on just one statistic to handicap this game, but I will point out that the Orioles are just 20th in home run-to-fly ball ratio and the Yankees are fifth. On top of that, they’re Bottom 10 in strikeout rate during the last two weeks and just 24th in isolated power during that time.
I don’t think the Orioles’ offense is as good as the Yankees’ right now, which is shocking considering the Yankees have really struggled since the Aaron Judge injury.
New York has superior strikeout and walk numbers of late, which should help in a game where home runs will be hit.
It would seem the Yankees should get more balls back into play and should be able to get more runners on base with the way they’re walking and with their .235 average over the last two weeks compared to Baltimore’s .206 average. I’ll lean Yankees moneyline here if you need a side.
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Trend to know
The Over is 6-0 in the Orioles' last six series openers. Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Yankees
Orioles vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Monday, July 3, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MASN, YES |
Starting pitchers
Tyler Wells (6-4, 3.21 ERA): Wells allowed six home runs across five starts in the month of June yet never allowed more than two earned runs in a start. He accomplished this feat with stellar strikeout and walk numbers, but he did allow five earned the last time he visited Yankee Stadium.
Domingo German (5-5, 4.54 ERA): You certainly remember German’s last outing, which took place in Oakland. He threw a perfect game while leaning on plenty of fly ball outs, but pitching at Yankee Stadium should prove to be a tougher task.
