The Toronto Blue Jays will try to avoid a sweep at the hands of the San Diego Padres in Thursday afternoon’s series finale.
However, that will be easier said than done, as the Blue Jays must go up against arguably the hottest pitcher going in baseball: Blake Snell. The lefty looks like the most dominant pitcher on the planet right now so there's reason to see San Diego listed as a slight road favorite in this matchup.
Toronto counters Snell with Chris Bassitt. Does the reliable right-hander give the Jays some value as home dogs?
I break down the MLB odds and bring you my best bet plus a same-game parlay in my MLB betting picks for Padres vs. Blue Jays below.
Padres vs Blue Jays odds
Padres vs Blue Jays predictions
Last night, I saw the total for this matchup hit the board at 9. I was stunned but figured it would come down overnight. That hasn't happened, so let me tell you why I'm stunned to see this still at 9.
Let’s start with Blake Snell. The San Diego Padres left-hander has been without a doubt the most dominant pitcher in baseball for nearly the last two months. Snell has allowed just four earned runs over his last 10 starts. He's limiting opponents to a .156 batting average while striking out a ridiculous 14.12 batters per nine innings over that stretch.
This afternoon, he’ll face a Toronto Blue Jays team that still struggles to get that clutch hit, has issues with lefties, and hasn’t scored a run in 17 innings.
The Jays’ problems cashing in runners are well documented. They rank 27th in OPS with runners in scoring position this year, and against left-handed pitchers, the Jays look much more average ranking 20th in OPS and 17th in wRC+.
Countering Snell is right-hander Chris Bassitt. The veteran starter’s first year in Toronto has been a bit of a roller coaster but he’s on a bit of a high right now.
He has a 3.27 ERA and a 2.93 FIP over his last four starts and looked good in his first start since coming out of the All-Star break, limiting the Diamondbacks to two runs on seven hits over six innings of work.
He’s also the type of guy who can give the Padres problems. Bassitt has one of the biggest pitch arsenals in baseball and mixes them well to mess with hitters’ timing.
And even though San Diego boasts a talented lineup, it sure is inconsistent. The team ranks 28th in batting average, 20th in OPS, and 17th in wRC+ when facing right-handed pitchers this season and we just saw Jose Berrios tie them in knots last night.
Like last night, pitching will be the story, and the total of 9 is just way too high. Take the Under and enjoy some great pitching this afternoon.
My best bet: Under 9 (-118 at SIA)
Padres vs Blue Jays same-game parlay
Under 9.5 (-160)
First-five Under 4.5 (-105)
Blake Snell Over 5.5 strikeouts (-175)
Danny Jansen Under 0.5 hits
This will be a Blake Snell-themed same-game parlay. Obviously, we're starting with our best bet and we’ll bump the number up to 9.5 for this. We're also going to double down and take the Under 4.5 in the first five innings as well.
Next, we are adding Snell to go Over 5.5 strikeouts. Did you remember when I said Snell is striking out 14.12 batters per nine innings over his last 10 games? To those new to baseball, that’s a lot. He’s gone Over 5.5 punchouts in each of those last 10 starts and has had at least seven in nine of them.
And the Jays sure seem to strike out a bunch for a team with a relatively low K-rate. Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish each recorded seven Ks in the first two games of this series.
Let’s close this SGP out with Danny Jansen to go hitless for a +450 payday. Jano has come up with some big hits for the Jays, but those are basically his only hits. He’s hitting .226 for the year and his splits vs. lefties are grim with a .146 average. He’s also just 1-9 with three strikeouts in his career vs. Snell.
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Padres vs Blue Jays moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Blue Jays opened this interleague matchup as about even money home underdogs, and that’s where they sit as of Thursday morning and it feels like a good line.
The Padres should be favored with Snell on the mound, but it's also respecting that Bassitt is capable of having success against this San Diego lineup and that the Toronto offense has been the more consistent of the two. I would lean toward San Diego up to -125 with just how good Snell has been and the Jays' problems dealing with lefties.
As noted above, the total hit the board at 9, and you can still get that number, but go get the Under now as 8.5s are starting to pop up on the board. To be honest, I like the Under at that number as well.
Toronto isn’t the only one with issues driving in runs. San Diego is actually worse, ranking 28th in OPS with RISP.
Also helping out the Under is a strong Blue Jays bullpen that ranks second in xFIP and fourth in strikeouts per nine. While overall, the Padres relievers aren’t as good, Snell should be able to work deep into this game and hand the ball off to their best relievers, including Josh Hader and his 1.00 ERA.
Under 9. Do it now!
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Trend to know
The Blue Jays have hit the Under on the full-game total in 25 of their last 43 games for +8.65 units. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Blue Jays
Padres vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Thursday, July 20, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 1:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
Starting pitchers
Blake Snell (6-7, 2.71 ERA): Want some ridiculous Snell stats? The left-hander hasn't allowed an earned run since the calendar read June. And he's only allowed three earned runs since the calendar read May.
Chris Bassitt (9-5, 4.12 ERA): It feels like Bassitt's season will be full of ups and downs. Things are going well right now, as the right-hander has recorded a quality start in three of his last four appearances.
