Chicago Cubs first baseman Michael Busch blasted a solo shot in the bottom of the ninth Tuesday night to level their three-game series with the San Diego Padres.
Weather will play a prominent role in my Padres vs. Cubs predictions as the MLB odds markets list San Diego starter Dylan Cease as a slight favorite over Cubs righty Hayden Wesneski.
Our MLB picks for Wednesday, May 8 break down the rubber match between the Padres and Cubs below.
Padres vs Cubs prediction
My best bet
Padres moneyline (-120 BetMGM)
My analysis
Both clubs pitched terrifically in Tuesday night’s matchup, and today’s rubber match should mostly follow that trend.
San Diego Padres starter Dylan Cease has been tremendous thus far, particularly in a visitor's jersey. Cease has twirled his four-seam fastball/slider combo into a 3-0 away record with five earned runs and 30 punchouts across 25 2/3 frames.
He’s gotten 31 of his 48 total strikeouts with the slider, which has been particularly tough on right-handed lumber. Cease whiffs 34% of the righties he faces and 35% of southpaw sticks, which bodes well for him and not so much for the struggling Chicago Cubs offense.
The Cubs bats haven’t been booming during this series, scoring only six runs, and don’t hit righties well at all. The Cubbies have an above-average walk rate (9%) but strike out too much (24%) and haven’t been unlucky (.275 BABIP) either.
Cease will do his part, and the Padres bats will take care of the rest against Chicago starter Hayden Wesneski and the mediocre Cubs bullpen this afternoon.
Wesneski hasn’t surrendered an earned run across 8 1/3 frames at the Friendly Confines because his sweeper/four-seamer has helped serve up a 48% groundball rate. He’s projected to make only 78 pitches today but also boasts an xFIP nearly three runs higher than his ERA.
That means the booming Padres sticks will likely score a couple of runs off Wesneski with a minimum of 12 at-bats against a hard-to-trust Cubs bullpen with eight blown saves and a 4.81 team ERA.
Cease continues his road dominance, and the Padres win this game.
Padres vs Cubs same-game parlay (SGP)
Padres moneyline
Over 8.5
With winds expected to blow out toward centerfield, the Padres' second-best 123 wRC+ against righties could be on full display. San Diego boasts the top offense against righties and has scored 32 runs over its last five.
While Cease has been great, he serves up a lot of fly balls and mainly medium to hard-hit balls to center field. Chicago has scored nearly five runs per game across their last five, hit with some power, and should score enough for this one to end Over the total.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Padres vs Cubs odds
Padres vs Cubs live odds
Padres vs Cubs opening odds
- Run line: San Diego -1.5 (+140) | Chicago +1.5 (-165)
- Moneyline: San Diego -120 | Chicago +100
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+100) | Under 8.5 (-130)
Padres vs Cubs spread and Over/Under analysis
- Some money has come in on the Padres, with moneyline markets trading Padres from -120 to -126.
- Cubs moneyline markets are trading as high as +108 from the market-low even-money (+100) opening price.
- Markets are now trading the Over 8.5 with odds from +100 to -110 across the industry.
- Playing Under 8.5 runs could come with a heavy price tag as markets are trading from -110 to -130.
Padres vs Cubs trend
The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 25 games (+10.45 Units / 28% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Cubs
Padres vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Wednesday, 5-8-2024 |
| First pitch: | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SDPA, MARQ |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Dylan Cease (4-2, 2.55 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Hayden Wesneski (2-0, 0.54 ERA) |
Padres vs Cubs latest injuries
Padres vs Cubs weather
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