The San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers are set for Game 2 of their NLDS on Sunday night.
Game 1 offered a thrilling opener after the Padres went up 3-0 in the first inning but ultimately succumbed 7-5 after a successful Dodgers comeback.
Read on to see which three player props I’m targeting with my MLB picks for Sunday, October 6, including a Shohei Ohtani prop pick. And don't miss Tony Sartori's full-game Padres vs. Dodgers predictions.
Padres vs Dodgers NLDS Game 2 props
- Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 total bases (-130 at bet365)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 H+R+RBI (-130 at BetMGM)
- Jack Flaherty Over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-111 at Caesars)
Picks made on 10-6 at 11:15 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Padres vs Dodgers props
Prop bet #1: Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 total bases
For far too long, the baseball universe went hungry waiting for Shohei Ohtani to feature in the playoffs. Well, the wait is over — Ohtani homered in his first-ever playoff game yesterday, going 2-for-5 with a home run, three RBI, and two runs scored.
The books have set Ohtani’s total bases prop for Sunday at 1.5 with -130 odds on the Over. The supernatural slugger is averaging 3.9 total bases across his last 10 games while eclipsing this number eight times, so I’m buying.
Yu Darvish gets the call for the San Diego Padres and Ohtani has crushed right-handed pitching this year with a 202 wRC+ and .462 wOBA.
Darvish’s three most utilized pitches are his four-seamer, slider, and sinker. That’s music to Ohtani’s ears as he’s posted more run value against those three pitches than any other Dodger player. He’s posted a .329 xBA and .722 xSLG against four-seamers, a .314 xBA and .802 xSLG against sliders, and a .332 xBA and .539 xSLG against sinkers.
Ohtani is accomplishing feats that we mere mortals could never dream of. He ranks in the 99th or 100th percentiles in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.
Fans waited too long for Ohtani to be in the playoffs but he’s going to make up for lost time.
Prop bet #2: Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 H+R+RBI
Dave Roberts calls upon midseason acquisition Jack Flaherty to start Game 2. He’s been a fine option, posting a 3.51 xERA (70th percentile) and a 29.9% K-rate (90th percentile).
The 28-year-old’s 162 innings pitched are the most he’s thrown since 2019, and there were signs of wear and tear down the stretch. He allowed 10 earned runs across his last three starts (14 innings), one of which came against San Diego when he allowed four hits, three walks, and three earned across five innings of work.
This is an interesting matchup because Flaherty racks up a lot of strikeouts, which San Diego’s lineup is usually averse to. The Padres have the lowest K-rate (17.8%) against RHP and the third-highest wRC+ (116).
Looking back at prior history against this Padres lineup, Flaherty has struggled against one hitter in particular — Fernando Tatis Jr. The 25-year-old has gone 4-for-6 with a home run and a 2.214 OPS against Flaherty.
The Los Angeles Dodgers gave Flaherty extra time to rest as this is his first appearance since September 25. One would think Roberts wants to get the most out of his starter after Yoshinobu Yamamoto lasted just three innings in Game 1, taxing the bullpen.
I’ll bet on Tatis going Over his 1.5 Hits + Runs +RBI prop as he’s been red-hot lately, averaging 2.2 Hits + Runs +RBI over his last 10 games. He’s gotten the best of Flaherty in the past and L.A.’s bullpen isn’t on an optimal rest schedule after being relied upon heavily in Game 1.
Prop bet #3: Jack Flaherty Over 2.5 earned runs allowed
Let’s talk a little bit more about Flaherty.
The veteran’s 3.17 ERA was the best number of his career other than his magical 2019 season. While that’s undoubtedly a good sign, the underlying metrics point out that he experienced some good fortune along the way.
His 3.51 xERA and 3.48 FIP are both more accurate reflections of what to expect in the postseason. The right-hander allows a decent amount of quality contact with a 49th-percentile barrel rate (7.7%) and a 57th-percentile xBA (.237).
The Harvard-Westlake product has a 94 Stuff+, which ranks just 38th among 57 qualified starters. He relies on strikeouts, which will be hard to come by against the Padres lineup that is anathema to the punchout.
It’s always difficult to forecast a starting pitcher’s workload in the playoffs as managers often have a quick leash. Considering Flaherty was given extra rest this start and L.A.’s bullpen had to toss six innings a night ago, I’d be surprised if Flaherty isn’t kept in the game for a little while.
It’ll be a warm night in L.A. at 82 degrees at the time of first pitch. The wind won’t be blowing too hard (5.8 mph) but it’s headed straight out to center field. This isn’t what I would categorize as “great pitching conditions”.
I’ll bet on Flaherty allowing at least three earned runs against a dangerous Padres lineup that hits righties well.
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