Padres vs Dodgers Picks and Predictions: Darvish Has LA's Number

The San Diego Padres (46-33) have squandered the chance to leap ahead of the Los Angeles Dodgers (48-28) after dropping the first two games of this four-game weekend series. They have mustered up just two combined runs across those games, squandering rather solid outings from Joe Musgrove and Blake Snell.

There is still hope that they can tie up the series, and they will send Yu Darvish to the mound to face off against Tyler Anderson in what projects to be a solid pitching duel. Can the Padres turn this series around or will the Dodgers put themselves in position for a four-game sweep heading into tomorrow?

Continue reading our free MLB picks and predictions for Padres vs Dodgers on Saturday, July 2nd.

Padres vs Dodgers odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Dodgers opened as -135 favorites and currently have a wide range of prices spanning from -141 to -160 across several books. The total opened at 7.5 and now stands at a juiced Over on the 7.5 or a juiced Under on 8.0.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Padres vs Dodgers predictions

• Prediction: Padres ML (+135)
• Prediction: Under 8 (-110)
• Best bet: Padres ML (+135)

Picks made on 7/02/2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Padres vs Dodgers game info

• Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Saturday, July 2, 2022
• First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX

Padres vs Dodgers betting preview

Starting pitchers

Yu Darvish (7-3, 3.26 ERA): Many were quick to write off Darvish after a late-season dip last year and a slow start to begin the 2022 season, but the three-time All-Star has turned things around rather convincingly. In fact, his ERA on the season has jumped just twice in his last eight starts, most notably in his last game in which he allowed three earned runs in six innings to the Phillies.

Tyler Anderson (8-1, 3.23 ERA): Anderson began 2022 as one of the league's biggest surprises, carrying an 8-0 record and 2.82 ERA into mid-June. His fortune has turned around as of late, however, allowing seven earned runs in the 11 innings he pitched against the Reds and Rockies. It is the third time in his last four starts that he has allowed three or more earned runs, compared to just doing it once in his first 10.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Betting trend to know

The Dodgers (40-30-6, 57.1%) and Padres (43-34-2, 55.8%) are the third- and fourth-best Unders teams in the MLB, respectively. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Dodgers

Padres vs Dodgers picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

Yu Darvish has had an interesting career since coming over from Japan in 2012. He was widely considered the best pitcher in the NPB, and he lived up to that reputation in his first three seasons with three All-Star appearances and pitching to a 3.27 ERA during that stretch.

In spring training of 2015, his fourth season, Darvish sustained an injury and would go on to miss the entirety of the season. He returned with a solid campaign in 2016 and became the subject of trade rumors the following season, with the Rangers seemingly falling further and further out of playoff contention.

Weeks after notching his fourth All-Star appearance, the Dodgers traded for Darvish. Unfortunately for the right-hander, the conclusion of that stint with the Dodgers is largely what sticks in the minds of baseball fans. In the World Series, Darvish allowed eight earned runs in just 3.1 innings of work across two losses in a seven-game series.

At the time, Darvish was largely the one that was blamed for the World Series loss. He signed with the Cubs the following season, and when he understandably struggled (4.95 ERA, 14.3 WHIP) after having his confidence crushed on such a large stage, almost everyone wrote him off entirely.

But Darvish persevered and has been a better pitcher than he has been credited for since. He finished second in NL Cy Young voting in 2020 and the Padres took note and traded for his services the following offseason.

Through June, he had a 7-2 record and 2.44 ERA and received his fifth All-Star nod. However, the rest of 2021 didn't go nearly as well, as he logged a 6.62 ERA from July onwards.

This past offseason, Darvish found himself again being written off, and after allowing nine earned runs in just 1.2 innings in his second start this season, many had closed the book for him.

But since then, the now 35-year-old has taken matters back into his own hands. He has pitched to a 2.63 ERA and has allowed more than three earned runs just twice in the 12 starts since.

On Saturday night, he is tasked with digging the Padres out of a 0-2 hole in this four-game set against his former team — the same Dodgers squad that has mustered up just a .165 batting average and .289 slugging percentage across 105 combined plate appearances.

That is quite the stark contrast to Tyler Anderson, who will take the mound opposite of Darvish on Saturday. In 97 combined plate appearances, Padres' batters have managed a .267 average and .462 slugging percentage.

Manny Machado (.350 OBP), Eric Hosmer (.316 BA), Austin Nola (.375 BA), and Trent Grisham (.286 BA) all have had their fair share of success against Anderson and are projected to start tonight's game.

With their backs against the wall, a favorable pitching matchup on their hands, and juicy odds to boot, the Padres are the side to be on tonight.

Prediction: Padres moneyline (+135 at BetMGM)

Over/Under analysis

The first two games of this series have gone Under the total, largely in part due to the Padres' ability to just plate two combined runs in those games. If we expect Darvish to make slight work of the Dodgers' lineup tonight, the Under may be the way to look.

While Tyler Anderson has had demonstrated struggles against this collection of batters, he at the very least has one of the league's better bullpens (their 3.22 ERA ranks sixth) backing him if and when they are called upon. This is the same relief corpse that has held the Padres to just one hit, two walks, and zero runs in the first two games of the series.

In terms of weather factors, there isn't anything overly outstanding that would deter a look towards the Under. The game is projected to be around 80 degrees for the first pitch which is notably ten degrees above the standardized 70 degrees that balls are stored in, but the temperature projects to cool down as the game progresses.

The wind is projected to blow eight miles per hour out towards centerfield, which is more negligible than it sounds.

Prediction: Under 8 (-110 at Caesars)

Best bet

While both Darvish and Anderson have pitched to similar marks to this point, their recent trajectories have been largely opposite. Darvish started slow and has since put in a lot of appreciable work to get to those marks whereas Tyler Anderson has stumbled rather noticeably as of late.

With the Padres down 0-2 already in the series and with a more than favorable pitching matchup on their hands, they are in a great position to answer back on Thursday night. Their bats can't stay as cold as they've been forever, and given their aforementioned track record against Anderson, tonight is as good of a candidate for that turnaround to happen as you can find.

To top it all off, they're listed as moderate underdogs despite all of this. Expect the Padres to deliver a response tonight on national television and give themselves a fighting chance to even things out heading into the fourth and final game of the series tomorrow.

Pick: Padres moneyline (+135 at BetMGM)

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