Padres vs Dodgers Predictions, Picks, Odds: Starting Pitchers Dodge Scoreboard

The San Diego Padres (19-19) could use a few wins as they head just a few hours north to face the NL West-leading Los Angels Dodgers (23-15).

San Diego limps into this series after dropping four of its last five games, two of which came a week ago against the Dodgers. 

Dave Roberts’ ball club holds a three-game division lead and is riding hot having won eight of its last 10 games.

Check out our MLB picks and predictions for the Padres and Dodgers on Friday, May 12, to see our best bet for Game 1.

Padres vs Dodgers odds

Padres vs Dodgers predictions

This is a rematch of last week’s game in which Dustin May and Blake Snell got into a pitching duel that resulted in a 2-1 Dodgers win. The books set the total at 9 for that game, and that’s exactly what they’ve done again here. 

Snell’s average fastball velocity of 95.1 is down nearly half a mile per hour from last year, but it’s in line with his numbers in 2020 and 2021, so I wouldn’t sound the alarm. His swinging strike rate of 13.4% is in line with his career mark (13.8%), so it’d be a surprise if his deflated 24.8% strikeout rate doesn’t move closer toward his career number of 29.1% as the season progresses. 

The Dodgers hit left-handed pitching just fine a year ago, ranking eighth in wRC+. It’s been a different tale in 2023, as they continue to struggle against Southpaws while ranking 22nd in wRC+ (95) and 23rd in wOBA (.310). They strike out too much (26% strikeout rate) and have a minuscule .201 batting average — not splits one might expect to see for a team of this caliber. 

I’ve written about this previously this season, but May has had a strange profile this season. Despite being in the 90th percentile for fastball velocity and generating a lot of spin, the tall right-hander ranks in just the third percentile in whiff rate while generating an extremely low 6.2% swinging strike rate. 

He’s been unable to make batters miss, which is puzzling when you consider that he has such great stuff. FanGraphs' Stuff+ metric, which attempts to quantify a pitcher’s “stuff”, grades him fifth overall among qualified starters — one spot ahead of New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole and just a few spots behind other notable names like Shohei Ohtani and Spencer Strider. 

While he has been allowing a lot of contact, he’s done a good job of making sure those balls in play are not of the dangerous variety with a 5.4% barrel rate. Regardless of the odd profile, May has been an effective pitcher this season and possesses tantalizing potential. 

San Diego’s bats have gone somewhat cold. Since May began, the Padres rank 16th in wRC+ (101) and 15th in wOBA (.317). They have the league’s highest walk rate (12.1%) in that span but haven’t been very effective at much else.  

The Under has cashed in six straight Padres games when they ace a right-handed starter. They’ve been a good bet to the Under on the road as well, going 3-12-1 O/U in their last 16 road games. 

I believe the total is too high for Friday night’s matchup. Snell has struggled this year, but so have the Dodgers against left-handed pitching. May has pitched well this year and faces a Padres lineup that hasn’t done much of note lately while underperforming its potential. Give me the Under. 

My best bet: Under 9 (-105 at DraftKings)

Padres vs Dodgers moneyline analysis

The line opened at Dodgers -130 but has since moved slightly toward the favorite. Currently, the best price available on the Boys in Blue is -135 while the best comeback on the Padres is +125. 

It shouldn’t come as a surprise that the Dodgers have gotten the best of this series when playing at home considering they’ve been among the league’s top teams for a while now. They’re 38-14 across the last 52 meetings at Dodger Stadium. 

While the Padres haven’t exactly been on fire lately, with just one win in their last five games, they have been performing well in series openers, winning four straight Game 1s. 

When examining the starting pitchers, the Padres have won just once in Snell’s seven starts while the Dodgers have won four times across May’s seven starts. 

The Dodgers should have the lineup advantage in this spot as they have been in better form, ranking third in wRC+ (130) and fifth in wOBA (.364) across the last 10 days, while the Padres check in at 16th and 15th, respectively. 

Neither team has been stellar in relief, as the Dodgers’ bullpen has a 4.35 ERA and 1.34 WHIP while the Padres’ bullpen has only been slightly more effective with a 3.92 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. 

Padres vs Dodgers Over/Under analysis

The total is set at 9 across the board at the time of writing. 

Weather isn’t expected to have a huge impact on this game as the forecast calls for a sunny day with a temperature of 67 degrees at the time of the first pitch. The wind will be blowing out to right-center field, but it’s expected to peak just below 7 mph and decrease as the game goes along. 

We’ve already established above that May has elite stuff, but Snell isn’t exactly a slouch either despite the poor ERA and WHIP this season. Snell doesn’t have enough innings to qualify for the leaderboard, but when changing the minimum innings to 30, he checks in at 25th in FanGraph’s Stuff+ metric — one spot ahead of Dodgers starter Julio Urias. 

Snell has been snake-bitten by hard contact this season, allowing a career-high 11.3% barrel rate. Considering his career number is just 6.8%, he’ll need to normalize that number to find renewed success. 

The Under has cashed in four of the last five meetings between these two teams. The Dodgers have also typically played in low-scoring games after an off day, going 13-31-2 O/U in their last 46 games following a day of rest. 

Padres vs Dodgers game info

Starting pitchers

Blake Snell (1-5, 4.89 ERA): Snell has had a rough go of things in 2023, as his ERA and 1.57 WHIP indicate. He’s accumulated a grand 0.0 WAR, and both his 5.82 xERA and 5.48 FIP are signs that this poor start may not be a fluke. His last start came against these same Dodgers and he performed just fine, allowing two earned runs across six innings but picking up the loss due to a lack of run support. 

Dustin May (4-1, 2.68 ERA): The hard-throwing right-hander has been aces for the Dodgers when they needed it most, tossing effective innings as his team grapples with starting pitching injuries. May has won each of his last three starts while allowing just four combined earned runs across 16 ? innings. His 3.39 xERA and 3.46 FIP are both strong, if unspectacular, while his 18.4% strikeout rate is surprisingly low. 

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The Padres are 0-6 O/U in their last six games against a right-handed starting pitcher. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Dodgers

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