In the upside-down world of the NL West, the San Francisco Giants are heating up as summer officially draws near and making a run at the top of the division.
San Francisco brings a seven-game winning streak into Monday’s series opener with the rival San Diego Padres. The Giants are 11-4 so far in June and lean on reliever-turned-starter Ryan Walker to continue that climb up the standings.
San Diego has struggled with consistency this month and despite a respectable 10-6 record since June 1, the Friars are just shy of one unit of profit on the MLB moneyline odds. Ace Michael Wacha toes the rubber for Monday’s trip to the Bay Area, making San Diego a slim road favorite.
I break down the moneyline and Over/Under total for his NL West war and give my best MLB picks and predictions for Padres at Giants on June 19.
Padres vs Giants odds
Padres vs Giants predictions
As great as Michael Wacha has been the past month and a half, we’re looking to sell high on the San Diego Padres’ sizzling starter with some solid return on his earned runs allowed prop Monday night.
Caesars is dealing the Over 2.5 earned runs at +123 for Wacha, taking on a San Francisco Giants lineup that has been crushing the ball the past seven games and maintained hot hitting for the month of June.
Today’s player projections range from 2.2 earned runs to 3.01 for Wacha, with the bulk of those forecasts pegged above 2.5 and stronger models sitting on the other side of three earned runs.
Wacha has been sharp as a Father’s Day-fresh Exacto Knife but the bulk of those starts have come at home, where the lanky hurler enjoys a 2.51 ERA and has picked up five of his seven total wins. The other two victories came across five road starts, in which Wacha owns a 3.54 ERA.
San Francisco is a formidable foe, at least at the moment. The Giants just plated 29 total runs in a three-game sweep of the Dodgers in L.A. and sit as the second-best hitting team in the bigs so far in June, scoring close to 6.5 runs per game.
Wacha has taken advantage of some softer opponents in recent starts, facing the likes of Seattle (20th in scoring), Cleveland (27th), and the Chicago Cubs (17th) this month — all of which occurred at home.
Playing the Over 2.5 earned runs isn’t saying Wacha is going to have a bad day, but given the player projections and the Giants’ lineup lighting up the scoreboard, the Over presents solid +EV tonight.
My best bet: Michael Wacha Over 2.5 earned runs allowed (+123)
Padres vs Giants same-game parlay
Michael Wacha Over 2.5 earned runs allowed (+115)
Luis Matos Over 0.5 hits (-190)
Over 8.5 (-120)
Wacha hits the road for the first time this month against a San Fran lineup that sits second-best at the plate in June. His projections sit north of 2.5 with some models above three earned runs. We're not asking the sensational 6-foot-6 starter to fall apart, just cough up three or more runs.
Rookie outfield Luis Matos has made a splash in his short time in the show, recording four hits over his first four games for the Giants. His models call for those hits to keep coming — or at least one more — for today’s home game.
If the Giants can get to Wacha early on, there’s a good shot this game goes Over 8.5. San Francisco is handing the ball to a rookie pitcher making his debut as a starter against a Padres lineup top-heavy with intimidating bats.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Padres vs Giants moneyline and Over/Under analysis
MLB odds opened San Diego at -115 with San Francisco coming back as a -105 underdog at home, respecting the red-hot play of the home team Monday. However, early play has been on the Padres and pushed their price to as high as -120 with Wacha getting the start.
San Francisco has been ripping the cover off the ball during the current seven-game winning run, plating almost 9.3 runs on a .324 collective BA in this stretch. The Giants may need that run support to back up rookie righty Ryan Walker, who will be making his big-league debut as a starter against San Diego’s stacked top of the order.
The Padres’ bats don’t seem to show up each night. They edged Tampa Bay 5-4 on Sunday but then squeaked out a 2-0 victory on Saturday — the sixth time this month the team has plated three or fewer runs. Extending winning streaks has been an issue for San Diego this season, failing to go further than three wins in a row. That’s a mark the team can match with a victory at Oracle Park tonight.
The Over/Under total for Monday’s series opener hit the board at 8.5 runs (Over -120) and that number has stayed relatively still, with some slight adjustment on the vig to Over -117.
The Padres enter Monday at 6-9-1 Over/Under in June, having gone 2-2-1 O/U in their last five outings. They’re 4-9 O/U in Wacha’s 13 starts in 2023. The Giants own an 8-7 O/U mark this month and that offensive eruption has helped the team top the total in six of those last seven wins.
Tonight’s forecast is calling for some stronger breezes by the Bay, with winds up to 26 mph blowing out to right-center field to start the 10 p.m. ET first pitch. Those winds will calm later in the night, dropping to 17 mph with game-time temperatures in the high 50s.
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Trend to know
The Over is 16-7 in the Giants’ last 23 games vs. the NL West. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Giants
Padres vs Giants game info
| Location: | Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Monday, June 19, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCS-Bay Area, SDPA |
Starting pitchers
Michael Wacha (7-2, 2.89 ERA): The Padres' “tower of power” on the hill hasn’t allowed a run in his last 12 2/3 innings of work. The 6-foot-6 righty has given up just six total hits with only two walks to 12 strikeouts in wins over Cleveland and Seattle. After a bumpy start to the season (6.75 ERA in April), he’s been locked with a slender 0.92 ERA since May. According to ESPN, that’s the lowest ERA among qualified starters in that span. This will be San Francisco’s first go at Wacha since he was acquired by San Diego this offseason, having not faced him since he was a Cardinal back in 2019
Ryan Walker (2-0, 1.23 ERA): Walker gets the ball as a starter for the first time after making 11 appearances out of the bullpen so far in 2023. He’s been solid in those abbreviated showings with a 1.23 ERA over 14 2/3 innings of work, however, he’s topped out at 51 pitches in a single contest. Walker has held opposing batters to a .220 BA but just how long the right-handed rookie will go today is up in the air.
