The San Diego Padres and New York Mets clash in a winner-take-all Game 3 of the NL Wild Card series on Sunday night.
New York staved off elimination with a 7-3 victory Saturday night. Mets' hurler Jacob deGrom scattered five hits with eight strikeouts over six frames to pick up the win, while Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso both hit home runs in the victory.
Who will move on to play the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for the San Diego Padres vs New York Mets on Sunday, October 9.
Padres vs Mets best odds
Padres vs Mets picks and predictions
This should be an exciting MLB playoff game, but the excitement will likely come from two exceptional starting pitchers who’ve flown under the radar this season.
Joe Musgrove has been a special kind of filthy over his past five games, spinning three shutouts with 32 strikeouts over 27.1 innings.
The righty relies on six pitches, and he’s striking out 9.2 per nine by keeping hitters off balanced. Proof of this is his career low, 6% barrel percentage, and 86.4 exit velocity rate — and he’ll keep Mets hitters guessing all night long.
The Mets have raked righties this season and finished the regular season 7th in runs scored, 15th in home runs but 2nd in wRC+. New York knows how to manufacture runs, but Musgrove has been better at keeping runs off of the board.
Bassitt has been a lifesaver for a Mets pitching staff with big names and even bigger injuries. Like Musgrove, Bassitt has flown under the radar, but N.Y. would be nowhere without him.
The Mets hurler hasn’t pitched as well as Musgrove down the stretch, but a dozen earned runs with 24 whiffs over 27.1 frames ain’t exactly chopped liver.
Chris Bassitt has the lowest exit rate and second-lowest barrel percentage of his career. The result is career highs in ground ball hard hit rate, and the big-swinging Padres are going to have difficulties tonight.
San Diego ended the season 15th in runs scored, 23rd in home runs, but 14th in wRC+ with a 22% strikeout rate vs. right-handed pitching.
Both hurlers have high ground ball rates, neither allows more than one bomb per nine innings, and both have above-average K/BB ratios. I expect these two veterans to make the most of their opportunity to shine under a national spotlight and stymie the respective offenses tonight.
During the month of September, the Mets' bullpen spun a second best 2.64 xFIP and 2nd best 11.33 K/9 ratio. Conversely, the Padres bullpen posted a mediocre 4.02 xFIP with a 17th best 9.19/K9 ratio.
Finally, the starting pitchers should dominate this one on what will be a chilly night with 52% humidity. Ground ball chuckers like Musgrove and Bassitt love these kinds of nights, and the pressure on the high-octane offensive stars playing an elimination game gives both pitchers a distinct edge.
The Mets' bullpen has been exceptional, and while the Padres' bullpen has been less than remarkable, Josh Hader seems to be turning the corner and back to spitting seeds. Both offenses are loaded with talent, but neither has been raking consistently over the past month. I like the under 6.5 runs as my best bet.
My best bet: Under 6.5 (+104 at Pinnacle)
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Padres vs Mets Wild Card odds
| Teams | Odds to win series |
|---|---|
 San Diego Padres |
+120 |
 New York Mets |
-140 |
Padres vs Mets moneyline analysis
I haven’t the foggiest idea who will win this game, but I did notice a couple of extra things I’ll share in this space.
The game opened with Mets -125, Mets money poured in, and it currently sits at -135. We lost the number and I don’t think it will swing back, and could close at -140 or higher.
San Diego posted a record of 20-17 as away underdogs. Meanwhile, the Mets were 52-23 when favored at home.
The padres are 5-2 in the last 7 meetings and 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in New York
Padres vs Mets Over/Under analysis
The Under is my best bet, and here’s what I left out from my best bet analysis.
We have two of the best defensive teams in baseball. San Diego committed the 23rd fewest errors, while N.Y. ended the season second with 67 miscues.
Mets closer Edwin Diaz has the third-highest K/9 ratio (17.3/9) in MLB history and pitched 1.2 scoreless innings with a strikeout in Game 2.
Padres' closer Hader has struggled this season, but hasn’t allowed an earned run with 13 K’s during his previous eight appearances (8.1 frames).
Padres vs Mets trend to know
The Under is 8-2-1 in Padres last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Mets
Padres vs Mets game info
| Location: | Citi Field, Flushing, NY |
| Date: | Sunday, October 9, 2022 |
| First pitch: | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Starting pitchers
Joe Musgrove (10-7, 2.43 ERA): Musgrove has been electric down the stretch and surrendered five earned runs with 32 strikeouts over 26 1-3 frames. The Padres' hurler sports a 3.23 xERA alongside a 3.47 xFIP, but his 3.22 xFIP suggests New York could be in trouble.
Pitcher (X-X, X.XX ERA): Bassitt has struggled entering Sunday, giving up a dozen earned runs with 24 whiffs over 27 2-3 innings. Bassitt posts a 3.82 xERA with a 3.93 xFIP, but his home 3.50 xFIP could mean he’s a bit better this season pitching at Citi Field.
Padres vs Mets latest injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Padres vs Mets weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
