Both the San Diego Padres and Washington Nationals limped into the All-Star break and hope to start the second half of the season off on the right foot when they open a series at Nationals Park.
The Padres come out of the break having lost seven of their last 11 ball games and saw their hold on the second National League wild-card spot shrink to 3.5 games. While the Nationals have dropped nine of 11 to fall nine games out of a postseason spot.
Which slumping team strikes first? Check out our MLB free picks and predictions for Padres vs. Nationals on Friday, July 16, and find out.
Padres vs Nationals game info
• Location: Nationals Park, Washington, D.C.
• Date: Friday, July 16, 2021
• Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
• TV: MASN, Bally Sports San Diego
Padres vs Nationals odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonAs of 4:15 p.m. ET today, the Padres are out to -143 at TwinSpires Sportsbook, after opening -129, but action isn't overwhelming on San Diego. The Padres are taking 55 percent of moneyline tickets and 62 percent of moneyline dollars. The total is stable at 9.5, with 59 percent of tickets/57 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gamePadres vs Nationals betting preview
Starting pitchers
Chris Paddack (4-6, 5.38 ERA): It has been a rough stretch for a guy the Padres thought might be their future ace. The right-hander has been lit up for a 12.71 ERA and is allowing opponents to hit nearly .400 over his last three starts, and in eight games since May 31, his ERA is 7.53 with a WHIP of 1.62.
Erick Fedde (4-6, 4.59 ERA): Maybe the All-Star break was just what Fedde needed. The right-hander had a nine-game stretch where he pitched to a 2.54 ERA but that number ballooned to 9.45 in his three starts just prior to the break with one of those rough outings coming against this same Padres team.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Padres: Javy Guerra RP (Questionable), Taylor Williams RP (Questionable), Austin Nola C (Questionable), Matt Strahm RP (Out), Drew Pomeranz RP (Out), Nick Ramirez RP (Out).
Nationals: Kyle McGowin RP (Out), Tanner Rainey RP (Out), Yan Gomes C (Out), Kyle Schwarber LF (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the Padres and Nationals. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Nationals.
Moneyline pick
While both the Padres and Nationals weren’t playing their best baseball heading into the All-Star break, they actually played in a very exciting back-and-forth series back on July 5-8, splitting the four-game set. So, are we in store for more of the same this time around?
Well, as noted, both starters have been slumping prior to the break, but you can make the argument that Fedde has been the more consistent of the two this season. Fedde has spent the majority of his season pitching to a 2.54 ERA and limiting opponents to a .182 batting average.
On the other side, Paddack, while showing flashes of ace potential every now and then, is finding way too much of the plate with a four-seam fastball he throws more than 60 percent of the time. It's a pitch opponents are hitting over .300 against this season.
When it comes to the two lineups, the Padres weren’t as potent in the first half as we were expecting heading into the season and rank 13th in scoring and batting average, and 18th in home runs. The Nationals, on the other hand, hit for a solid average but struggle to get that clutch hit, ranking 17th in scoring.
With the starters being close to a wash, the Nats look slightly more well equipped to take advantage and at this price, it’s worth taking a shot on them as underdogs.
PREDICTION: Nationals +120
Over/Under pick
While the side is a little harder to figure out, the total looks like the bet to attack in this matchup. The last series just before the break was full of fireworks, seeing a whopping average of 15 total runs scored per game, and with this pitching matchup, it's not crazy to think those fireworks will continue.
Paddack’s last start against Washington on July 7 lasted just two innings, surrendering nine runs on nine hits, but Fedde’s start on July 6 wasn’t much better. He allowed six runs on eight hits over 4 1-3 innings.
Even though this game features two solid bullpens, the lineups should be able to do enough damage against the starters to send this matchup Over this number and Over the total for the fifth straight meeting between these teams.
PREDICTION: Over 9.5 (-110)
Padres vs Nationals betting card
- Nationals +120
- Over 9.5 (-110)
Picks made on 7/16/2021 at 7:05 a.m. ET
Did you know that if you parlayed today’s MLB Padres vs. Nationals picks, you could win $32.00 on a $10 bet?
Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
Where can I bet on MLB odds?
You can bet on MLB odds at every online and casino sportsbook, including MLB moneylines, runlines, Over/Under totals, and a ton of MLB prop odds. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on MLB odds in your area.
