This interleague series continues today with the Baltimore Orioles hosting the San Diego Padres at Camden Yards. MLB odds have Baltimore as a slight -120 favorite, while the total sits at nine.
My Padres vs. Orioles prediction is optimistic on the underdog, primarily due to the pitching matchup.
Read on for Saturday, July 27’s MLB picks.
Padres vs Orioles prediction
My best bet
Padres moneyline (+102 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The San Diego Padres hand the ball to right-hander Michael King, and he should be a good candidate to back. King is 8-6 through 21 appearances on the mound this season, posting a 3.28 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are equally dominant, as the right-hander ranks in the 65th percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. King enters this contest in particularly good form, allowing just one earned run in each of his past four starts.
He‘s 3-1 over that stretch with a commanding 1.48 ERA. This success is likely to continue against Baltimore, a team King is 2-1 against through 13 career meetings with a 2.63 ERA.
Following King is a bullpen that ranks ninth in xFIP, which is five spots higher than the Baltimore Orioles’ relief staff. Not only does San Diego own the bullpen advantage, but King should be a safer candidate to back than Baltimore starter Dean Kremer.
King outranks Kremer in ERA, WHIP, xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. That just leaves the lineups, which is the only advantage that the Orioles possess.
With that said, the gap is small, as both teams rank in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs, and stolen bases. Additionally, this current Baltimore lineup possesses a mere .170 BA and .264 wOBA through 51 combined career plate appearances against King.
Padres vs Orioles same-game parlay (SGP)
Padres moneyline
Michael King Over 5.5 strikeouts
Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 hits
I already discussed King’s recent dominance above, but he should also be a good candidate to back in the props market. The right-hander ranks in the 70th percentile or higher in chase, whiff and strikeout rates.
You can currently find his strikeout prop at 5.5, a total he’s surpassed in six of his past seven starts. Meanwhile, if we’re backing San Diego to win, then we need the offense to come alive as well.
Enter Xander Bogaerts, who boasts a .273 BA through 15 career plate appearances against Kremer. Bogaerts has also recorded at least one hit in 14 of his past 16 games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Padres vs Orioles odds
Padres vs Orioles live odds
Padres vs Orioles opening odds
- Run line: San Diego -1.5 (+158) | Baltimore +1.5 (-192)
- Moneyline: San Diego +102 | Baltimore -120
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-122) | Under 9 (-122)
Padres vs Orioles spread and Over/Under analysis
- Baltimore opened as a -120 favorite and remains at that price as of late Friday night.
- I believe that this line will flip over to San Diego, due to all the aforementioned variables.
- The total opened at nine and also remains at that price.
- The juice has already switched to the Under on that number, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see this line drop to 8.5 by first pitch, mainly due to King’s recent excellence.
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Padres vs Orioles trend
San Diego has won each of its past six games. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Orioles
Padres vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Saturday, 7-27-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Michael King (8-6, 3.28 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Dean Kremer (4-6, 4.43 ERA) |
Padres vs Orioles latest injuries
Padres vs Orioles weather
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