It’s getting juicy now in the Champions League with the second leg games in the Round of 16 starting on Tuesday, and the pick of the bunch has to be Liverpool and Paris Saint-Germain’s meeting at Anfield.
Liverpool took home a one goal advantage after that first leg in Paris but the score line flattered them considerably. That’s why our Liverpool vs. PSG predictions have the French side managing to qualify for the quarterfinals under the Anfield floodlights.
Be sure to read my Champions League free betting picks for Tuesday, March 11, with kickoff at 3:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+.
Liverpool vs PSG picks and predictions
My best bet:
PSG to qualify (+260 at TonyBet)
My analysis
There’s a reason that Liverpool aren’t certain favorites on Tuesday, and our best bet actually has PSG not just winning inside 90 minutes, but qualifying for the quarterfinals despite being down 1-0.
Liverpool might have won that first leg, courtesy of Harvey Elliott’s late goal, but it was a game in which they were outclassed throughout. We’ve seen Liverpool lose a few games this season but they haven’t been outplayed like that once since Arne Slot arrived.
Luis Enrique played the perfect tactical game, with PSG dominating thanks to their organization in the middle of the field and their use of speed to exploit spaces in the Liverpool defense. Seeing Liverpool with under 30% possession is incredibly rare, as is seeing them have just two shots all game, compared to the 27 that PSG had, of which 10 were on target.
If it wasn’t for Alisson in goal, then PSG would have won by a large margin, with the Brazilian pulling off a number of saves, including depriving Khvicha Kvaratskhelia of a number of goals.
It isn’t just the first PSG game that is a worry, it’s Liverpool’s performances across the past two months. Their first half against Southampton this past weekend was dire. Likewise, an FA Cup defeat to Plymouth Argyle as well as a derby draw to Everton and a narrow win over Wolves showed a team who perhaps look to be tiring.
PSG aren’t afraid of an intimidating atmosphere and won’t be put off by what they see at Anfield. They’ll be hugely confident after their first leg and if Enrique’s team can even replicate that performance by 80%, then they’ll win this one.
The speed and directness of that Kvaratskhelia, Bradely Barcola, and Ousmane Dembele attack is terrifying, and they can exploit Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andy Robertson at fullback, who are both having poor seasons by their high standards. Back the French here.
Liverpool vs PSG same-game parlay (SGP)
PSG to win
Ousmane Dembele to score
PSG Over 4.5 corners
We can’t bet on PSG qualifying on the SGP, so instead we’re backing PSG to win, something they need to do in order to qualify anyway.
Then we’re going to back Ousmane Dembele to score, with the Frenchman in simply incredible form and looking every bit as dangerous as Mohamed Salah right now. He’s scored 28 goals in all competitions for PSG this season, including six in the UCL.
The final leg of is Over 4.5 PSG corners. This should be something that lands with ease.
PSG were fantastic in that first leg game and they managed to record a staggering 14 corners. It’s unlikely they hit that high of a number again, but given that they’re chasing the tie, we are likely to see them push forward and create enough chances to earn five or more corners.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Liverpool vs PSG odds
Liverpool vs PSG live odds
Liverpool vs PSG opening odds
- Moneyline: Liverpool +129 | PSG +190
- Draw: +285
- Over/Under: Over 2.5 | Under 2.5
Liverpool vs PSG side and Over/Under analysis
- Liverpool have won four games in a row in all competitions.
- That defeat to Liverpool was the one time that PSG have lost in their past 24 games in all competitions.
- Six of PSG’s 11 UCL games have had Over 2.5 goals, while four of Liverpool’s nine UCL games have had Over 2.5 goals.
- Over 2.5 goals has landed in two of the three meetings between these teams since 2018.
How to watch Liverpool vs PSG
| Location | Anfield, Liverpool, UK |
| Date | Tuesday, 3-11-2025 |
| Time | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Paramount+ |
| Weather | 43F, 10 mph winds, 20% PoP. |
Liverpool vs PSG key injuries
Liverpool: Joe Gomez CB (Out), Conor Bradley RB (Out), Cody Gakpo FWR (Questionable).
PSG: None.
Not intended for use in MA.
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