The Toronto Blue Jays will look to continue their dominance of the National League East when they open a series with the Philadelphia Phillies at TD Park in Dunedin.
The Jays are coming off a second sweep of the Atlanta Braves and hope to carry that into Game 1 against the Phillies, where they will be moderate favorites as they hand the ball to Steven Matz. Can Vince Velasquez lead Philly to a win as underdogs?
Check out our MLB free picks and predictions for Phillies vs. Blue Jays on Friday, May 14, with first pitch scheduled for 7:37 p.m. ET.
Phillies vs Blue Jays game info
• Location: TD Ballpark, Dunedin, FL
• Date: Friday, May 14, 2021
• Time: 7:37 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet
Phillies vs Blue Jays odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonToronto opened -140 Thursday afternoon at PointsBet USA, briefly went to -135, then this morning climbed to -160, where the moneyline remains at 4 p.m. ET. The Blue Jays are taking 63 percent of bets, but money is almost dead-even two-way, with 51 percent on the Jays. The total opened at 10.5 flat (-110) and is now 10.5 (Over -115), with 69 percent of bets on the Under and 51 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gamePhillies vs Blue Jays betting preview
Starting pitchers
Vince Velasquez (1-0, 4.18 ERA): Velasquez has been solid for the Phillies since rejoining the rotation at the end of April. The right-hander has pitched to a 3.20 ERA and limited opponents to a .213 batting average over his last four starts and has pitched into the sixth inning allowing just one earned run in each of his last two starts.
Steven Matz (5-2, 4.86 ERA): It has been a tale of two streaks for Matz. The Jays lefty began the season on fire pitching to a 2.31 ERA while limiting opponents to a .169 batting average. But the wheels have fallen off over his last three starts where the ERA jumps up to 9.22 and hitters have a .371 average. Which Matz will the Phillies see Friday?
Weather
Weather in Dunedin Friday is calling for clear skies and 64 degrees, with a slight 4 mph wind to the north. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Phillies: Didi Gregorius SS (Questionable), J.T. Realmuto C (Out), Archie Bradley RP (Out), JoJo Romero RP (Out).
Blue Jays: Ryan Borucki RP (Questionable), George Springer CF (Out), Tommy Milone RP (Out), Julian Merryweather RP (Out), Rafael Dolis RP (Out), Alejandro Kirk C (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-0 in Phillies' last five road games versus a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Blue Jays.
Moneyline pick
The Blue Jays are looking like one of the most exciting young teams in baseball at the moment. They are 20-16 while playing through a home-away-from-home and a litany of injuries, including to big offseason signing in George Springer, who has only played a few games.
The Jays come into this game rolling after a sweep of the Braves, winning six of their last eight overall. They have done that thanks to an excellent bullpen and an offense that is getting in a groove. Toronto is plating 6.38 runs per game and ranks second in OPS over their last 13 games.
Their next challenge will be Velasquez, who has been solid but is still struggling with his command a bit. He is either finding too much of the plate with his fastball or not getting enough of it with his curve or change.
But the bigger problem for the Phillies is what happens after Velasquez. The Philly bullpen ranks 22nd in ERA and WHIP, and 21st in opponent batting average.
While Matz has been inconsistent, so is the Phillies offense that is dealing with some injuries of its own. The value is with the home side in this one.
PREDICTION: Blue Jays (-145)
Over/Under pick
As we just mentioned, the Phillies offense, while talented, has been an all-or-nothing much through the first month and a half of the season.
The result is a middle-of-the-pack ranking in most offensive categories. Philly ranks 16th in scoring, 20th in average, and 21st in OPS. Heck, look at their recent game results for an example. One run, five runs, six runs, one run.
And even if the Phillies can get to Matz, they then have to deal with a Jays’ bullpen that has quietly been one of the best in the Bigs ranking third in ERA and fifth in WHIP.
That offensive inconsistency has us thinking the total is a tad too high. Bet on this one to sneak Under the number.
PREDICTION: Under 10.5 (-110)
Phillies vs Blue Jays betting card
- Blue Jays (-145)
- Under 10.5 (-110)
Picks made on 5/13/2021 at 10:30 p.m. ET
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