The Toronto Blue Jays may be out of the running for the postseason but there’s no denying they’ve been much more fun to watch these days, even if that isn't resulting in wins.
Such was the case when the Jays fell in a 10-9 slugfest to the Philadelphia Phillies last night, but today’s Phillies vs. Blue Jays predictions are expecting a much different tempo with a red-hot Bowden Francis taking the mound.
I break it all down in my MLB picks below.
Phillies vs Blue Jays prediction
My best bet
First five Under 4.5 (-143 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
The Bowden Francis turnaround has been nothing short of incredible. The 28-year-old right-hander made the Toronto Blue Jays roster out of Spring Training to rave reviews, but those good feelings were short-lived as he was rocked early on in the season, resulting in a demotion to the minors. When he did get called back up, it was in the long-reliever roll.
With the trade deadline seeing a few players shipped out, Francis returned to the rotation at the end of July and he was outstanding in August. Francis pitched to a 1.06 ERA while limiting opponents to a .081 batting average and is striking out 10.3 batters per nine innings over five starts, earning the AL Pitcher of the Month Award.
He’s allowed just two earned runs on six hits over his last 29 innings. As I said, pretty incredible stuff.
Suffice it to say, he can be effective even against a lineup as dangerous as the Philadelphia Phillies. Plus, Philly has been just a middle-of-the-road team when facing right-handed pitching, ranking 12th in OPS and 13th in wRC+ this season.
Meanwhile, the Phillies counter with All-Star Cristopher Sanchez. The left-hander has been solid for the majority of the season pitching to a 3.63 expected ERA, and with his sinker-changeup combo, he’s the type of pitcher who can give a young Blue Jays lineup problems.
Not for nothing, Toronto ranks 25th in OPS and 24th in wRC+ when facing southpaws this season. Pitching will be the story early in this one, but as we saw yesterday, leads aren’t safe with the Blue Jays’ bullpen, so stick to the Under on the five-inning total.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Bowden Francis Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+110 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
Let’s keep it with Bowden Francis for today’s star player prop because this is the guy the Blue Jays were raving about this spring. While keeping up this pace will be difficult, the right-hander is dealing right now so we’re rolling with the hot hand.
As mentioned, he's striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings over this five-start stretch. That's a strikeout rate of 33% and would have him in the Top 10 of MLB pitchers. As a result, he’s struck out 7+ batters in four of his last five starts.
The Phillies are a middle-of-the-pack strikeout team when it comes to facing righties, getting rung up 21.9% of the time, with that number rising to 23.1% over the last two weeks.
Francis has averaged just over 23 batters faced over the last five starts. Even if he strikes out about 25% of batters faced today, he should get to six strikeouts. And with the way he's pitching, I’ll happily back him to do so, particularly at plus money.
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Phillies vs Blue Jays odds
Phillies vs Blue Jays live odds
Phillies vs Blue Jays opening odds
- Moneyline: Philadelphia -125 | Toronto +105
- Run line: Philadelphia -1.5 (+130) | Toronto +1.5 (-155)
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Phillies vs Blue Jays moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Blue Jays opened this interleague matchup as slight +105 road underdogs and early bettors have sided with the Phillies with Toronto now in the +110 range.
- There's likely some value with the Phillies here. Philly is the superior team with an All-Star on the mound and while Blue Jays starter Bowden Francis has been outstanding, the Phillies boast a very tough lineup. He'll eventually have to hand the ball to an uninspiring Toronto bullpen.
- The total hit the board at an even 8 and that's where the number sits as of late Wednesday morning.
- While I like the first-five Under, I wouldn't be shocked if the game still went Over the full-game total. Toronto's bullpen has the third-worst ERA in baseball and we just saw it cough up another lead yesterday.
Phillies vs Blue Jays trend
The Blue Jays have gone Over the total in 26 of their last 37 games at home for +14.10 units and a 35% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Blue Jays.
Phillies vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Wednesday, 9-4-2024 |
| First pitch: | 3:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCS-Philadelphia, Sportsnet |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Cristopher Sanchez (9-9, 3.49 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Bowden Francis (8-3, 3.66 ERA) |
Phillies vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Phillies vs Blue Jays weather
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