Phillies vs Braves Odds, Picks, & Predictions: Strider Continues Run of Dominance Against Philadelphia

The Atlanta Braves will try to break a four-game losing streak as they host the Philadelphia Phillies at Truist Park on Tuesday night.

The Phillies tightened their stranglehold on the top wild card spot in the National League with a 7-1 win over Atlanta on Monday. Tonight, the Braves will try to rebound behind Spencer Strider, who is still a fringe Cy Young Award candidate according to the latest MLB odds.

Tonight’s pitching matchup is a rematch of a game between these teams from last Wednesday, and that encounter might give us some insight into what to expect on Tuesday. We’ll dive deep into what to expect in our free MLB picks and predictions for Phillies vs. Braves on September 19.

Phillies vs Braves odds

Phillies vs Braves predictions

On September 13, Spencer Strider outdueled Cristopher Sanchez as the Atlanta Braves defeated the Philadelphia Phillies by a score of 4-1. Both pitchers threw relatively well, but Strider lived up to his reputation, shutting down the Phillies by allowing just one run over seven innings of work at a hitter-friendly Citizen Bank Park.

Those same pitchers are on tap for a second meeting, this time at Truist Park in Atlanta. Both teams look like they will play their first-team lineups, with everyone — including Ronald Acuna Jr., who returned to the lineup on Monday.

That has me looking at Strider as the key piece in this game, just as he was the last time we saw this matchup. Strider has faced the Phillies seven times in his young career, going an incredible 7-0 with a 1.56 ERA. Eventually, that streak of wins will end, but considering the relatively low turnover — he’s only been facing Philadelphia for two years — it’s safe to say that he owns this Phillies lineup.

Strider leads the majors in both wins (17) and strikeouts (259). Over his last six starts, he is 5-1 with a 2.95 ERA, showing that he’s not slowing down as the season wears on. And while the Braves may eventually limit Strider to keep him fresh for the playoffs, the right-hander will still be given a full run tonight.

The one concern I might have tonight is the Braves’ four-game losing streak. However, Strider wasn’t involved in any of those losses, and he seems to be the cure for whatever ails Atlanta this year. The Braves are an incredible 23-6 when Strider is the starting pitcher this year, including winning all three of his starts against the Phillies in 2023.

The Braves had no trouble hitting against Sanchez last week and have pounded left-handed pitching all year long to the tune of a .873 OPS, a number that only 12 players in all of MLB can beat for the season. At home, Atlanta should be able to put up runs and finally end this four-game mini-slump.

I’m clearly behind the Braves to win tonight, but I’m going even further and backing them on the run line. Atlanta won this same matchup easily in Philadelphia less than a week ago, and I’m backing them to repeat that performance on Tuesday night.

My best bet: Braves -1.5 (-104 at FanDuel)

Phillies vs Braves same-game parlay

Braves -1.5

Under 9

Spencer Strider Over 8.5 strikeouts

+366 at FanDuel

Tonight, we have a same-game parlay that almost writes itself. We’ll start with taking the Braves to cover the run line, then take into consideration what happened last week when these teams met with the same pitching matchup.

I’m going to add in a bet on the Under at nine runs. These teams combined for just five runs when these pitchers faced off last week, and I expect at least Strider to continue shutting down the Phillies as he has for the past two years.

Finally, let’s take Strider to hit the Over on his strikeout prop. That was my best bet last week, and Strider got there with another nine-strikeout performance. He’s now hit that mark in four of his last five games, making this a great way to round out our SGP.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Phillies vs Braves moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Braves opened tonight’s game as a significant -215 favorite. That number has gotten even longer since then, though you can still find -215 at a few books. If you want to bet on the Phillies, +190 is the best number available.

The Braves have been a solid moneyline team to back all year long, and have made nine units for bettors this season. The Phillies are just barely underwater, having lost three units for backers in 2023.

Atlanta deserves to be a clear and strong favorite in this game. Yet, even the -215 line I’m currently seeing doesn’t properly capture how likely the Braves are to win tonight. Atlanta has an excellent record behind Strider, who in turn has never lost to the Phillies in his career. 

The total on tonight’s game opened at 9 and remains that way at most sites. The Under is considered the favorite at that total: you can get +100 on the Over, while it’s hard to do better than -115 on the Under.

The Braves have one of the best lineups in the majors and the Over has gone 83-65 in their games as a result. Meanwhile, Philadelphia has played slightly below the number this year, with the Under going 72-67.

With two solid pitchers on the mound, runs could be hard to come by. The Braves should get the best of this encounter, but Sanchez is not going to let the Atlanta lineup simply run over him. On the other hand, the Phillies should have trouble getting anything going against Strider.

I am leaning strongly towards the Under tonight.

Trend to know

Atlanta is 3-0 on the run line in Strider’s starts against Philadelphia this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Braves

Phillies vs Braves game info

Starting pitchers

Cristopher Sanchez (2-4, 3.40 ERA): Sanchez has adapted well to a full-time starting role for Philadelphia this year, and would likely have had the job all year long had he not suffered injuries coming out of spring training. The left-hander has pitched to a strong 1.053 WHIP this year, thanks mostly to his excellent control, which has seen him allow just 1.4 walks per nine innings. Last time out, Sanchez allowed four runs on eight hits over 7 1/3 innings against the Braves.

Spencer Strider (17-5, 3.73 ERA): Strider probably won’t win the NL Cy Young Award this season, but he has thrown himself into the conversation for years to come. The 24-year-old has become the premier strikeout pitcher in the majors, averaging a league-leading 13.8 Ks per nine innings. In his last start, Strider continued his dominance of the Phillies, allowing one run on four hits over seven innings.

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